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Cheltenham 2018 Ante post bets
- Thread starter Istabraq
- Start date
Hi all, long time watcher here and have found everyone's opinions invaluable in forming increasing ante post cheltenham books over the years. Just thought I'd join to share my opinions on all the races ahead of next year's festival, think I've now formed the bulk of my ante post book and have some strong fancies.
Two bets stand out for me:
FINIANS OSCAR - to win any race - 6/1 (on at 10s 8s and 6s) - have been topping up on this weekly now for a couple of months. Just think of all last seasons hurdlers going chasing, this one will prove a notch above. I think the Arkle is where he may well end up, and so have some on for that race also. Will definitely be between the Arkle and JLT, just think if you consider the profile of the horses who have won the Gold Cup in the past then the Arkle is the logical race. Why not go for the more prestigious, valuable race, especially in his first year as a chaser. The stable won't be in any rush with a horse they think could be the best they've ever had, so why rush to step him up in trip when a true run two miles should suit him perfectly.
SAMCRO - Neptune - 14/1 (on at 20s and 16s) - refreshing that you can trust most of what Elliott says with regards target. Every quote from him indicates the Neptune will be the target for Samcro this year, and looking at horses likely to take in the Supreme, Neptune and Albert Bartlett I can see Samcro being a nice favourite for this race on the day.
I'll end up with 3/4 horses covered in all the championship races (always seen a profit doing this in the past, though usually quite a small one) and in a lot of them I think you'd have to give 3/4 a decent chance at the moment. When you form that opinion on a market then for me it's just about taking the plunge on each horse when the price is right.
For example I'm very confident that the Champion Hurdle winner will come from Buveur, Faugheen, Yorkhill, Defi and am on all of those now at prices which will ensure varying degrees of profit.
My other strong thoughts are that Yorkhill won't win the Gold Cup if going for that, I like the Our Duke/Disko formlines, think they have the perfect profile for it and will be trained accordingly. Also don't think Death Duty will be winning the RSA. That was a shabby performance yesterday and even though he clearly has an engine and will improve plenty, you couldn't back him when taking into account previous festival form, the fact he was sketchy over hurdles and unseated, and will have been beaten by some of the main protagonists before. I really like Topofthegame for this one (point form over 3 miles really strong), but again it's a market where you'd have to have 3/4 covered to be confident come the off.
The markets I really like at this stage are for the Bumper and Albert Bartlett. When you see a few horses in each all priced up at 33/1 then with a bit of research that the race will be the horses likely target (as it seems with most at the head of both these markets) and I think you're currently getting real value and it's worth an investment. Those horses than form the basis of my bets for that race, and you can chip away at anything else that impresses you along the way. Am sure this is how most of you bet on here, look forward to sharing opinions over the coming months
Two bets stand out for me:
FINIANS OSCAR - to win any race - 6/1 (on at 10s 8s and 6s) - have been topping up on this weekly now for a couple of months. Just think of all last seasons hurdlers going chasing, this one will prove a notch above. I think the Arkle is where he may well end up, and so have some on for that race also. Will definitely be between the Arkle and JLT, just think if you consider the profile of the horses who have won the Gold Cup in the past then the Arkle is the logical race. Why not go for the more prestigious, valuable race, especially in his first year as a chaser. The stable won't be in any rush with a horse they think could be the best they've ever had, so why rush to step him up in trip when a true run two miles should suit him perfectly.
SAMCRO - Neptune - 14/1 (on at 20s and 16s) - refreshing that you can trust most of what Elliott says with regards target. Every quote from him indicates the Neptune will be the target for Samcro this year, and looking at horses likely to take in the Supreme, Neptune and Albert Bartlett I can see Samcro being a nice favourite for this race on the day.
I'll end up with 3/4 horses covered in all the championship races (always seen a profit doing this in the past, though usually quite a small one) and in a lot of them I think you'd have to give 3/4 a decent chance at the moment. When you form that opinion on a market then for me it's just about taking the plunge on each horse when the price is right.
For example I'm very confident that the Champion Hurdle winner will come from Buveur, Faugheen, Yorkhill, Defi and am on all of those now at prices which will ensure varying degrees of profit.
My other strong thoughts are that Yorkhill won't win the Gold Cup if going for that, I like the Our Duke/Disko formlines, think they have the perfect profile for it and will be trained accordingly. Also don't think Death Duty will be winning the RSA. That was a shabby performance yesterday and even though he clearly has an engine and will improve plenty, you couldn't back him when taking into account previous festival form, the fact he was sketchy over hurdles and unseated, and will have been beaten by some of the main protagonists before. I really like Topofthegame for this one (point form over 3 miles really strong), but again it's a market where you'd have to have 3/4 covered to be confident come the off.
The markets I really like at this stage are for the Bumper and Albert Bartlett. When you see a few horses in each all priced up at 33/1 then with a bit of research that the race will be the horses likely target (as it seems with most at the head of both these markets) and I think you're currently getting real value and it's worth an investment. Those horses than form the basis of my bets for that race, and you can chip away at anything else that impresses you along the way. Am sure this is how most of you bet on here, look forward to sharing opinions over the coming months
Leman14
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
Welcome Robante!
A great summary and some solid opinions
I'm compiling a Day 1 EW Lucky 15 to get the Fez off to a flyer - I just need some encouragement before I press the button!
I am fully aware that targets may end up being wrong, but you have to go with your gut... right?
Supreme - Annamix
Arkle - Fiinians Oscar
Champion Hurdle - Buveur D'air
Mares - torn between Apples Jade and Let's Dance
Elliott has all but confirmed that Apples Jade will be aimed at retaining her crown, but Let's Dance offers better value, has course form and is probably better at 2.5 than 2 miles...
Leaning towards Let's Dance... has anyone seen anything about intended targets?
Can't see her being aimed at Champion or Stayers Hurdle...
A great summary and some solid opinions
I'm compiling a Day 1 EW Lucky 15 to get the Fez off to a flyer - I just need some encouragement before I press the button!
I am fully aware that targets may end up being wrong, but you have to go with your gut... right?
Supreme - Annamix
Arkle - Fiinians Oscar
Champion Hurdle - Buveur D'air
Mares - torn between Apples Jade and Let's Dance
Elliott has all but confirmed that Apples Jade will be aimed at retaining her crown, but Let's Dance offers better value, has course form and is probably better at 2.5 than 2 miles...
Leaning towards Let's Dance... has anyone seen anything about intended targets?
Can't see her being aimed at Champion or Stayers Hurdle...
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
Welcome along Robante, as Leman said a nice summary of your current thoughts
Leman, I have seen nothing about Let's Dance, however Mullins mentioned Limini coming back looking bigger and stronger than ever, so wonder if she'll be connections main runner for this race, I think Let's Dance will have her time, whether that is this festival or not remains to be seen, but personally I am backing both AJ & Limini currently, go with your own instincts though, they are usually reliable
I, somehow, have once again, got into the hype of the Ricci runner and Annamix turns up in a few of my AP bets already, was looking through some earlier and never realised how many I put him in, so I am hoping he is all the rage still come March, unlike Senewalk this year :sorrow:
Leman, I have seen nothing about Let's Dance, however Mullins mentioned Limini coming back looking bigger and stronger than ever, so wonder if she'll be connections main runner for this race, I think Let's Dance will have her time, whether that is this festival or not remains to be seen, but personally I am backing both AJ & Limini currently, go with your own instincts though, they are usually reliable
I, somehow, have once again, got into the hype of the Ricci runner and Annamix turns up in a few of my AP bets already, was looking through some earlier and never realised how many I put him in, so I am hoping he is all the rage still come March, unlike Senewalk this year :sorrow:
Let's Dance, Augusta Kate, Vroum Vroum Mag, Limini. I would say Limini definitely be in for the Mares Hurdle, not sure where you then slot Let's Dance, Vroum Vroum Mag and Augusta Kate in. Probably see at least two of the four in the Mares Hurdle, one in the Stayers, but will have to wait til closer to the time for me, not getting involved in the guessing game with those 4 and will see how they've come on this season
Faugheen_Machine
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My guess at this stage would be Limini and AK in Mares, Let's Dance in the Arkle, VVM in the World Hurdle.
A complete guessing game at this stage though.
A complete guessing game at this stage though.
Geordieboy83
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archie
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I can guarantee you that no firm decisions will be taken for many months yet. Ultimate targets are as likely to be decided by mishaps to other horses and, because they are all trained in the same way, it's easy to change plan at the last minute.
It does puzzle me how people are prepared to take Nicky and Gordon statements at face value for long term planning. I'm not doubting that it's an honest assessment at the time but, in the end, they will do exactly as JP and Giggi say.
It does puzzle me how people are prepared to take Nicky and Gordon statements at face value for long term planning. I'm not doubting that it's an honest assessment at the time but, in the end, they will do exactly as JP and Giggi say.
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ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
Fair point Archie, but up until the day before the Ryanair, Vautour was 100% heading to the Gold Cup or not racing at Cheltenham at all, of course this came from owner rather than trainer, but whether it's Trainer or owner, 1 day before or 5 months before I think all need to be taken with a pinch of salt, though some, you could argue, come across more honest and reliable than others.
Leman14
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
And Binocular, which further enhances my point about taking any and every word of a trainer or owner with a pinch of salt, without trying to cause offence to those good, decent and honest owners and trainers
KingSprinterSacre
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Faugheen_Machine
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That would surprise me .... be thrilled though, more chasers the better.
Oon let's dance actually, she was a second season novice wasn't she, so should we factor that in to her improvement potential? Others (like AK) may improve past her? And she may not improve to the standard already set (Limini) ?
Seems a valid thought. On reflection I can't see Augusta Kate or Let's Dance winning a race at the festival this time round. I just put the consistent form of Apple's Jade and Limini as a class above those two. Apples Jade for the Mares Hurdle likely to be the safest bet just because of the heart she's got, can't see another mare outbattling her up that hill. Not one to get involved with now though at the prices with target not 100% assured
The Beast
Banned
Placed my first life changer for the festival tonight - EW Lucky 31 @ 510509/1 with WH
Annamix 14/1 (Supreme)
Samcro 16/1 (Neptune)
Finian's Oscar 10/1 (JLT)
Fayonagh 6/1 (Mares Novice)
Apple's Shakira 25/1 (Triumph)
They're all going off fav
Heres hoping , Hollywood or Skeggy
Faugheen (champion) 8/1
Samcro (Neptunes) 16/1
Finians Oscar (jlt) 7/1
Yanworth (rsa) 10/1
Might Bite (gold cup - NAP) 8/1
:triumphant:Good luck with your selections everyone ,love it if one of us hit the jackpot.
jono
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
Welcome Robante, have enjoyed reading your views - some solid reasoning behind them
Thanks, been an avid observer over the years, by far the best site around for forming an ante post book for cheltenham. Quite clear in my mind at this stage as to which horses I'll back unconditionally, but prepared for many an about turn over the coming months as we see where everything is slotting in. Look forward to much debate