Cheltenham 2018 Ante post bets

[Faugheen_Machine]

I took 20/1 The World's End for the Stayers straight after today's race.

 

[Istabraq]

I did another couple of L.15's today for cheltn. - 1. - Defi du Seuil - 8-1 - ch. hdl
2. - Douvan - 3-1 - ch. chs
3. - Nichols canyon -6-1 - styrs hdl
4. - Bellshill - 50-1. - g.cup
and ..
1.- Defi du seuil - 8-1- ch.hdl
2.- Altior - 7-4- ch. chs
3. N. canyon - 6-1 styers hdl
4. Might bite -10-1 g.cup . only 48 weeks to go!

Big Chaang

I've made the same dull comment dozens of times in here but Triumph Hurdle winners invariably won't have the speed to win a Champion Hurdle.
I doubt there's many bigger fans of the horse than me but I really hope they swerve the race next year, I'm not convinced a 5yo can the Stayers either so I'm struggling to find a reason for them heading for Chelt.
People will find that strange but 2m 1f over the stiffer New Course requires extreme stamina, 2m over the easier Old Course requires speed, a year older I wouldn't expect DDS to get any quicker but I would expect him to improve his stamina.
If I'm wrong and the horse wins the CH, he can be regarded as the horse of a lifetime...

 

[BigChaang]

Morning Istabraq, I'm sure you are right in what you are saying ., and i suppose that may be why d.d.s. price hasn't changed .
I must admit , the commentators were all talking champ. hdle after the race , so that swayed me.
But anyway , it's only a small bet and if the other three can win/place i'll cover my stake , on the second one , m.b
has already been cut to 8-1 by coral, who i did the bet with.

 

[Kevloaf]

I think they'll go chasing with DDS. BVD has the CH covered and they could always revert back?

 

[BigChaang]

It,s a bit of a lottery anyway at this stage , where they go , But , I'd say J.P.mcManus and alan potts horses will feature strongly.
Lot's of Talent there.

 

[Kevloaf]

Tempted by Yanworth for the JLT at double figures.

Going chasing, 'struggled' over the Arkle trip in the CH (outpaced down the back, albeit maybe didn't run to form) and doesn't look an out-and-out stayer. KIng said he thinks the intermediate trip is ideal for him and no major CHeltenham target at that distance over hurdles unless he can turn himself into a mare, which is unlikely.

10/1 - Not loads of juice in it but I am tempted.

 

[Vanilla]

Lets Dance, 5/1 for The Mares is the one that appeals most to me.

 

[Istabraq]

Lets Dance, 5/1 for The Mares is the one that appeals most to me.

That has to depend on Annie Power and VVM targets ?
Good luck to those who dabble but I can't predict Mullins in early March let alone 11 months out...

 

[jono]

Sadly I think it's highly unlikely Annie will run beyond this year but you still have VVM and Limini plus a second wave of the likes of Karalee etc so although i'm not against guessing Mullins horses targets with antepost, I don't think I could touch the mares race this far out - even though I do really like Let's Dance.

I think there's a decent chance Ricci may run a couple in the race again next year just due to the sheer amount of mares he has and I'd say it's more likely LD will be the one going for with a Champion Hurdle or World Hurdle next year than VVM or Limini. Limini didn't run in the CH this year so she never will so she's almost certain to turn up in the mares again next year with few other options.

VVM is the more versatile but even her options are starting to narrow now. 2m4f is clearly her trip so no hurdle races at the festival look to suit and although we've all hoped she'd have been chasing against the geldings by now - November 2015 was the last time she went over fences and she's only ever competed in small mares only chases and now as a 9 year old with the messing around of trips and targets over the last few years I wouldn't give her much chance either in the Ryanair.

Far more likely those 2 line up again in the race next year (if they both go/turn up) over Let's Dance imo

 

[jono]

I took 20/1 The World's End for the Stayers straight after today's race.

Tom George has come out today and said he's likely to stay down the hurdle route :encouragement:

I would say we will probably stick over hurdles and that is the way we are looking, although nothing is set in concrete.

"I see quite a bit of improvement in him and he has got that long-distance hurdle look about him

 

[jono]

Took 40/1 for Might Bite to do the Triple Crown (Betfair Chase, King George, Gold Cup) today.

Betfair Chase:

Henderson 2 days ago said:

The Betfair Chase the logical stepping stone towards the King George for Might Bite. The Hennessy might suit Whisper

So it looks the likely plan. Haydock should suit Might Bite very well and with the rest of the English 3 milers looking thin on the ground I don't think he'll have too much to worry about in this race if he lines up. With Cue Card being 11 going on 12 for next years festival his season will surely be all about trying to pick up a grade 1 next year. A 3 time winner of the race - i'm sure Tizzard will have this as his 'Gold Cup' next year and trained to the minute but it's a tough ask if Might Bite lines up. (Personally I think the Ascot Chase in February will be Cue Card's final hurrah next year). None of the Irish big players are likely to turn up. Coneygree is impossible to back. Bristol de Mai although at his beloved Haydock looks a level below top class. American could line up for Harry Fry with the ground likely to suit and Tea for Two, now having won left handed may take a shot but all have a big step up to get to Might Bite's level.

King George:

Everyone knows how good his Feltham run was going to be before the last minute fall. The King George could on paper feature a really strong lineup but I have doubts on the following lining up:

Sizing John - no idea why they'd go here and not the Lexus even more so now Fox Norton could run
Yorkhill - NO chance he comes over here on a right handed track
Douvan - Don't think he'll line up with the CC the plan if Yorkhill is going to go GC

Tizzard was positive about Thistlecrack when briefly asked at Aintree but I still think he'll need everything in his favour to get back in time and as bold as Tizzard is, surely he'd want a prep run before the race so I think they may air on the side of caution with a tendon injury.

Gold Cup:

Some have said Might Bite wasn't that impressive at Aintree but in a way he further cemented his claims for the Gold Cup. It was a much more professional performance by the horse and showed real battling qualities once again. Davy had Whisper right up there and when he came up almost alongside MB before the last I worried he might just out battle Might Bite in the run in as when on form few sure as much fight as Whisper especially around Aintree but Might Bite put his head down and found more and was always going away at the line. To me that run made more like his chances for the Gold Cup next year. Second season chasers who have not contested the race before are always my first port of call for the Gold Cup and him and Yorkhill are the 2 I really like this far out.


40's seems decent value to me for 2pts. I could easily see him being approx

BC 6/4
KG 5/2
GC 4/1

(hopefully after each race/win - which would give you approx 43/1 and that's me being generous on those odds)

 

[jono]

And also

Buveur D'Air 4/1
Cause of Causes 9/1

2pt 49/1 double.

 

[Istabraq]

I'd be worried about Haydock Jono, ground usually deep up there and I'm not sure that will suit.
Hard races on deep ground can also leave mark, I think they'll find a soft option as opener in his first race out of Novice company...

 

[jono]

I'd be worried about Haydock Jono, ground usually deep up there and I'm not sure that will suit.
Hard races on deep ground can also leave mark, I think they'll find a soft option as opener in his first race out of Novice company...

Good point regarding the ground Ista and one that I have to admit I didn't think too much about even though I remember how bad the ground was last year. Just had a look over at the last few renewals:

Heavy
Soft (heavy in places)
Soft
Soft
Soft (heavy in places)
Good to Soft
Good to soft (soft in places)

So yes if it turned into a slog that wouldn't be ideal for the horse and Henderson is the kind of trainer that wouldn't want to risk him but I do think he'll be aiming big with the horse from the off set and as long as it's nothing worse than soft he should be ok to at least line up.

Worth remembering that Henderson will i'm sure be very keen to follow up his trainers title this year and retain it with what looks a strong set of horses to go to war with in Altior, Buveur, Might Bite and co. His win in 2012-13 (taking the title away from Nichols 7 years in a row) was short lived with Nichols regaining the title the year after and winning it ever since. Though maybe not as obsessed as Nichols with winning the title, i'm sure he's keen to make sure this isn't a one off again and I don't think he'll be holding back his stars from taking in the big prizes / going for any easy races

 

[Istabraq]

I'm going to use any free bets I get on Auvergnat for the Cross Country.
Only had the four XC runs, wasn't beaten that far by CoC on ground that was quicker than the official 'Good', at 7 he's one for the future and one to keep the right side of....

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

And also

Buveur D'Air 4/1
Cause of Causes 9/1

2pt 49/1 double.

Done this double as well.

These two are going to be the backbone to a lot of my bets for next year. Already got 3 pts Buveur D'air at 5/1 and 2 pts Cause of Causes at 10/1.

I think Buveur D'air will take some beating next season, still only 6 years old, lightly raced and plenty of improvement to come.

 

[Kevloaf]

20399/1 Super Yankee

Buveur D'air - CH 4/1
Cause of Causes - XC 9/1
Yanworth - JLT 10/1
Un De Sceaux - Ryanair 5/1
Nichols Canyon - Stayers - 6/1

Small chance that I get the Yanworth destination wrong, but I don't think so! Doesn't look a 2 mile chaser obviously and I don't see why they'd push him towards the RSA when the JLT is an option?... and of course UDS's target might not be correct, but I feel they'll have a better bullet to fire in the CC and the ground will always have some soft in on the Thursday now too so as the defending champion I think he is incredibly likely to turn up in that race.

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

Tried to get a decent bet on Yorkhill for next years Gold cup without spending much, placed an ew treble on
One for Arthur 14/1
Fletchers Flyer 14/1 Irish nash
Yorkhill 8/1 Gold cup
Looking great at the mo, will plan on how to spend me dosh, till FF falls at the second last, or he wins then 23 seconds later Wylie announces Yorkhill will be aimed at the stayers hurdle, que sera

 

[BigChaang]

Where do you think U.D.S will run Kev ? , if not in the Ryanair ., I would have thought it's 90% certain to run there,
unless subbing for Douvan in the ch. chs, But as someone said here , ( Ista ? ) , couldn't guess willie's runners in
march let alone Apr /may.

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

Where do you think U.D.S will run Kev ? , if not in the Ryanair ., I would have thought it's 90% certain to run there,
unless subbing for Douvan in the ch. chs, But as someone said here , ( Ista ? ) , couldn't guess willie's runners in
march let alone Apr /may.

Looks like the bookies are trying to steal punter cash, I've noticed UDS quoted in the Gold cup market, I don't think he'd stay that distance in the horse box