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Cheltenham 2017 Antepost Bets

Defo add Yorkhill, epecially with the CH out the picture.
 
SH1591 said:
Put Yorkhill in and double up on a Canadian :encouragement:
Click to expand...

Cracking Idea mate!! On the Fringe added @ 4s to bump up the odds after that for a small heinz :triumphant:
 
Altior, Douvan, Death Duty, Thistlecrack, Yorkhill - best priced 60s as a 5 fold
 
Just done a few small folds

Deli Du Seuil - Triumph
Altior - Arkle
Apple Jade Mares Race day 1
Getabird Bumper

All small fun ew stakes. Hope give me a run for me money.


2ND One

Thistlecrack Gold Cup
Yorkhill JLT
Altior
Getabird
Cantlow Cross Country

3rd one

Thistlecrack
Yorkhill
Altior
Apple Jade
Getabird

Last one

Death Duty Albert Bartlett
Thistlecrack
Yorkhill
Altior
Apples Jade
Getabird
Douvan
 
Has anyone got easy access to the number of favs that won each day over the last few years?

Might be a good idea to start looking outside the obvious if the stats look like backing it up? LIke Liam i've got loads of those favs covered in various multiples but the big money isn't made by backing favs as we all know :sorrow:
 
Last 5 years amount winning fav's and by days:

2016 - 9 winning favs
Tue: 3
Wed: 0
Thur: 3
Fri: 3

2015 - 7
Tue: 3
Wed: 2
Thur: 1
Fri: 1

2014 - 6
Tue: 2
Wed: 2
Thur: 2
Fri: 0

2013 - 9
Tue: 3
Wed: 2
Thur: 0
Fri: 4

2012 - 9
Tue: 3
Wed: 2
Thur: 4
Fri: 0

Gives you on average per day of below:

Tue: 3.4 winning favs
Wed: 1.6
Thur: 2
Fri: 1.6

No surprise Tuesday is so high - generally down to Willie and Ruby. Bar last year the Wednesday has been consistent in 2 winning favs.
Two blanks on the Friday in this time, but then also 3 and 4 so tends to be either hit or miss for the Friday.

I think the number of favourites winning is slowly increasing year by year. Mullins is obviously the key provider over the last 3-4 years for this but I think it's worth highlighting that the concentration of horses with the top trainers (and a lot of the smaller trainers struggling) means the majority of top horses are now with a small number of trainers so can be spread out to win the most races. Rather than necessarily the most suited race for the horse it's becoming the most suited race for the trainer. I imagine this trend will continue. My guess is we'll get at least 9 favourites winning in 2017.

On Dee's 5-fold

Altior, Douvan, Death Duty, Thistlecrack, Yorkhill - best priced 60s as a 5 fold
Click to expand...

It does look very tempting at 60/1 but how many times have we said that. I have all 5 covered somehow and may well go in on that but I'm yet to land one of these acca's at the festival despite coming very close several times . I'll keep trying but yeah it's very hard for them all to come in however good they look this time out.

But onto trying to do it for 2017 :triumphant:

So we could easily be looking at 9+ favourites coming in. We've only got to pick 5 of them...easy. Forum 5-fold...? :D
 
I might see if I can get a price on 9+ winnings favourites see what they offer up. Douvan has to be a starting base for the 5 fold
 
Surely going to be tonnes of slightly odds on or evens favs this year though?
 
Will end up doing a few more trebles and doubles before the day.
 
Last year had 6 odds on/evens SP's

4 odds on shots in Douvan, VVM, UDS, Limini
Evens in vautour, Thistlecrack. Yanworth went off a shade odds against at 11/10 (how Thistlecrack and Vautour went off evens - what a gift :D)

2015 had 3:

Odds on UDS, Faugheen, Annie
No Evens shots

Looking at the markets right now i'm not sure they'll be that many...

Altior (though I think the support for Min will increase on the day - Can't see Altior going off odds on, maybe evens at best
Faugheen/Annie - Depending on targets/health/prep runs etc they could both go off odds on
Douvan - odds on
Yorkhill - a short price for the JLT already and hopefully will get shorter after his run today. I don't think the race will have as much depth as first thought a few months back but still see him being odds against (albeit very short)
Thistlecrack - evens/odds on

So i'd guess Douvan and Thistlecrack and then it'd down to what happens with Annie & Faugheen. 3 or 4 max for me.

Looking back at the 2016 races I'd say there were 11 (maybe 12) could be called 'bankers'. 6 won, 5 (6) lost

(Vautour was come the day of lining up in the Ryanair but was 'Gold Cup bound' in the lead up)

Min - 15/8 - 2nd
Douvan - 1/4 - 1st
Annie Power - 5/2 - 1st
Vroom Vroom Mag - 4/6 - 1st
Yanworth - 11/10 - 2nd
No More Heroes - 5/2 - 3rd
Un De Sceaux 4/6 - 2nd
Josies Orders 15/8 - 2nd
Thistlecrack - EV - 1st
Limini - 8/11 -1st
Barters Hill - 4/1 - 4th **probably the most questionable to be on this list but he was fancied by many and a shorter before the setback a day before
On The Fringe - 13/8 - 1st

All but Barters Hill placed. A 6-fold acca on the winners at SP's:

65/1

Pretty good indeed considering you had 3 odds on shots in there
 
Thanks jono.
I'd guess that there will be 6/4 or less for each of these on the day...

Mares, (Annie,VVM?)
Mares Novice, (Whichever Ruby sits on)
Arkle, (Altior)
CH, (Faugheen or whoever Ruby is on)
CC, (Douvan)
JLT, (Yorkhill)
AB, (Death Duty)
GC, (THistlecrack)

They won't all win though :devilish:
 
ryanh97 said:
I might see if I can get a price on 9+ winnings favourites see what they offer up. Douvan has to be a starting base for the 5 fold
Click to expand...

Just seen Skybet are 6/4 for 10+ winning favs (including joint favs) at this years festival...
 
I asked them they mustve just put it up and not hot back to me
 
Rich Ricci Bingo at 16690/1 with Betfair... ???

Champion Hurdle - Annie Power
Mares Hurdle - Limini
Champion Chase - Douvan
Ryanair - Vroum Vroum Mag
Stayers Hurdle - Faugheen

Doesn't look likely at the moment, but, I think that combo gives them the best chance of winning those 5 races?

Annie would be a warm fave to defend her CH crown after the same prep (if she gets to Punches) as last season... against a similarly weak field?
Limini was given a good mention from Willie recently and he declared that race as the target (casting SOME doubt on whether AP or VVM would also be in the race? AS Ricci would only really put one in?)
Douvan doesn't need elaborating on.
VVM has long been thought of as better over a fence and despite an awful prep for the race, is she really any worse than UDS would be in this race (On good ground?) She has festival form over the distance ....
Faugheen - Would be without a doubt the classiest beast to turn up... all season they've mentioned he won point-to-points and stays further (although quiet on that front for a while now)...

Very speculative :very_drunk: maybe I Shouldn't drink on a Sunday :very_drunk: ....
 
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With me betting account at the minute I have just done £20 a week I know how busy its going be all for us in the next couple of months.
 
Kevloaf said:
Just seen Skybet are 6/4 for 10+ winning favs (including joint favs) at this years festival...
Click to expand...

"I think this year we will have a lot less winning favs than the past 2 years".

Let's see if we remember my quote. LR :)
 
Bye bye all my bets on Annie for the Mares and all the bets with vroom vroum mag in the stayers as she's clearly going for the mares now!! Only hope is Limini comes up as the main hope for the mares instead... ��
 
I've only lost x3 multiples with Annie in... it could have been a lot worse! (and it has been in recent seasons).

I wouldn't be at all surprised if AP was now retired, going out on a (belated) high from last season.
 
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