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Cheltenham 2017 Antepost Bets

Hi guys, popped back about a month ago and nothing was happening, now it seems like everyone has had a great to summer and it's now down to business again and it's great to be reading people's views again.

Is anyone familiar with this site, I found it invaluable last Chelts, and really hope the guy is going to continue again this year.

Steve2015-2016.weebly.com
 
Morning boys, maybe interested to know at what time of year is it proven to make your pick for a Cheltenham race.. For example at what point did altoir become a serious buzz horse for the supreme? Or yorkhill for the Neptune? If you had the winners for March picked out in September then you surely will have got very generous odds.. Interested to know if you pick an ante post bet early.. What are your thoughts behind it? I probably have 20 horses backed for March already and I was probably the same this time last year.. But for the life of me I can't remember if any of my winners last year were backed early or late
 
They'll be far better posters on here to comment but for myself I keep a record of all antepost bets each year in a spreadsheet. I find that really helps as each year before the new season I can look over previous bets, see how well I did, and break it down to see if there's a pattern. I really recommend that approach. In 2015 for example the novice chases were where I did best, this year however I did best in the handicap races (surprisingly for me) getting some big prices just after the weights came out.

I still struggle with when to place a bet. It doesn't take much at all for bookies to trim a horses price nowadays so it's weighing up putting the bet on early say before mid season trial to get the bigger price or wait and see if the horse is good enough and then take the reduced prices after the race. I've got countless examples of missing out on a horses price but also putting the bet on and it ends up even bigger 15 minutes later!

One way i've tried to tackle that problem is to wait for the race to go off but have the bet ready to place. Then try and place the bet just before the horses cross the line. Some bookies will suspend it but some won't and some can be slower than others to react to the race.

Every Mullins horse seems to be a buzz horse from the off but keep an eye on Patrick Mullins comments throughout the season. He can be a little more open than Willie on his thoughts for horse targets. Obviously he'll mention horses/targets that won't work out or change but it can be a good gauge. Couple of examples from last year:

- Yorkhill's target was up in the air for much of the season but he nominated Yorkhill as the Neptune horse in October

- He also said Bellshill would be the likely Albert Bartlett horse. He ended up in the Supreme BUT after disappointing, stepped up to 3 miles and showed a lot of improvement and will now be geared towards staying trips so those early thoughts of a 3 mile trip worked out well albeit not for the Cheltenham target
 
Altior was well touted before he saw a racecourse, I met plenty of people who were talking this one up before his Chepstow debut (hurdling). I think Hendo mapped out the Supreme route for him probably last Summer.

I know it's an old debate and not one to drag up again but the expanded festival means more options for horses, back in the day when there were 18 races ante post punting was far easier, if you had a novice hurdler it was either Supreme or Neptune, now there's the potato race.
Novice chasers were either Arkle or RSA, now the JLT causes us a headache.

I love the festival, always have, and I do believe the 4 day 28 race schedule is better than the 3 day version, but I rarely bet ante post these days because of the potential minefield it comes with.
One AP bet for me this year so far, On the Fringe in Foxhunters, and that's because the horse is guaranteed to be aimed at that race which is not something that can be said for the majority.

Happy to take shorter prices on the day knowing I have a runner but I still respect AP hunters seeking value....
 
Thoughts on Josies Orders? I know a 7/2 price at this time of year doesn't sound the most appealing but I just cannot see this one beat next year. Proven over the course, age on his side, Nina on board, trained by Bolger. Nimble on his feet and has the speed to pull away when they turn in. Was unlucky this year getting hampered by Balthazar King I just can't talk myself out of this one even this early.

Biggest danger in the market right now looks to be Foxrock. High class and ran some fine races amongst top class opposition but i'm not sure he travels well and it's a completely different test round the banks course.

He pulled out from the race at Punchestown. Does anyone know why or whether he is ok?

Also agree on On The Fringe - I've gone for an Edna Bolger / Nina Double on On The Fringe and Josies Orders
 
7/2 is probably very good value jono.
Very progressive last year, guaranteed to go the banks route, many of his banks challengers are ageing/retired and probably the best banks horse in training.
At 7/2 I'd be playing each way just case Enda has another up his sleeve we don't know about.

A few of us cam unstuck with the Josies/OTF double last year but I wouldn't talk anyone off a repeat investment....
 
I'm couldn't bet Josies Orders at 7/2 this far out. Yes, he'll be targeting the race again next year but I'm sure he was available at that sort of price on the morning of the race this year. I'd much prefer to try and find an alternative and remember someone suggesting Quantitativeeasing for the 2017 renewal at 25/1. That's more my type of ante post bet when there's still 7 months to go.
 
Could have been me FM, always been a fan of QE and still get cold sweats when thinking back to the 2015 race.
Yes QE will target the race and 25/1 is a nice price but on all known form Josies is probably the better horse and having had just 5 banks races there is probably still some improvement there.
Last years 7/2 on the day was built around the horses inexperience but he'll hit March's renewal with 7/8 banks runs to his name and if he wins the November race which is still a handicap (as far as I know) he'll be a very short price for the festival level weight contest
 
I just don't see him being that much better than those that we currently know will be targeting the race, never mind those that we don't.
 
Yeah the price on QE certainly is much more attractive this early. I've got exactly the same thought as Istabraq in how his price will end up as i'd be confident he'll win at least the level weights race in December and be right up there in the Nov handicap. The good thing with this race is I don't think it's a race that many look to get too involved in and hasn't got the fancy horses that grab the headlines so the price should hold until that November meeting. If all seems well with the horse, he's declared to run and a good run expected i'll likely be putting my bet for March on then before the race

Ah yes..I was on the JO, OTF and Ivanovich Gorbatov treble last year so feel the pain
 
Been doing some digging for the novices and two names keep cropping up, Getabird from Willie Mullins yard, and Top ville Ben from Nicky Hendersons, anyone else know of these and what sort of races they'll be aimed at, from what I gather they are both very highly regarded, some have touted Top Ville Ben as Nickys supreme horse and we all know he loves to enter a few for the opener, wondering if getabird has the same plan for him or if he'd be a Neptune horse, either way they'd have to be special I think to beat last years crop of bumper horses now hurdling, what's your thoughts lads?
 
Where did you read about the two novices gtj7756, cheers.
 
No one particular article to be honest, just been hunting through the Goffs sale records and Getabird was purchased by Harold kirk for Mullins as the top lot at £200,000 after his good win in the largy, and now ricci has taken ownership of him, he may even be one for the future as from a good chasing family with J'y Vole (trained by Mullins) and Long run as we all know won the King George and gold cup, Top ville Ben I know less about, seems to just be a bit of a talking horse on social media Pages, won his only point to point in Ireland and sent straight to Hendos yard, thought to be seen a good hurdling prospect which is why I asked the guys on here if they've heard anything further
 
paz247 said:
Anybody think More of That will line up in Ryanair rather than Gold Cup?
Click to expand...

Not for me? Owner more likely to want to go for the Gold Cup than the Ryanair and already got staying form at the course. Maybe more likely to win a Ryanair but I don't think that is enough of a change to sway them to go for the Vautour chase.
 
JO started at 15/8 and at (56/8) 7/2 you're surely getting value. I think it ultimately depends on your own betting patterns as to whether you like that kind of bet.

The amended result is really difficult to take and despite not being around on these forums for the festival earlier this year, I was very much in the same boat, but with no-one to cry to! :disgust:
 
Jono - I also do similar with recording ante post bets and my own more postive results are when I've got on early when 'obvious' targets come out. E.g. Vautour straight after the King George, despite what they said, looked like a horse than wasn't thriving over the trip. The year after before UDS being targeted at the Arkle so assumed that Vautour would go for the JLT. Obviously plenty of losers too from my own "second guessing".

I also didn't back, but did follow Gary Nuttings ante post tips. I think he was 29 points down this year and I can't remember the year before, and they come out before the weights come out but when the entries come out... My thoughts on this are that if a professional tipster can't make a profit then I haven't got much chance, HOWEVER, it is a bit like pricewise in that he probably wouldn't want to bet on all those races that far out but is forced to make a selection.

Ante post is really difficult and I'd be interested if anyone knows they're in profit from doing it, certainly 6 months+ out like I am, but I accept I'll probably be down overall to be able to play the market on the day of the race. I don't mean by cashing out or laying anything but just by having multiple horses covered and if I came out of every race even, having had a bet in every race... I would be delighted that an entire week (plus YEAR build up) has been for "free". That is my loose thoughts on ante-post betting ...
 
It also depends how far out your looking to do your ante post bet, take this year for example, me and I'm sure a few others on here got on ivanovich gorbatov and limini at a decent price from over a 4/6 weeks away from the fes, If memory serves me right I had Limini at 7/1 in several multiples and on her own for the mares novice hurdle straight after her win at fairyhouse in January and she went of around 8/11, likewise got ivanovich gorbatov at about 10's and after his disappointment before chelt he went off 9/2 on the day otherwise would have been even shorter, but between the two there you've beaten the bookies by about 13 points, which could be big depending on how your betting, biggest looser for me last year were the pair of bellshill and black hercules, backed them both off the boards from before Christmas, and both went on to race for different targets than presumed, couldn't believe it when they switched bellshill to the supreme, clearly needed more of a trip, and then black Hercules was taken out of the 4 miler and diverted to the JLT which he duly won
 
I'm the same, I assume that i'll lose money on antepost and anything that comes in is a bonus. I've only been into horse racing for a short time (2012/2013 onwards) and been betting antepost for the last 3 seasons. The amount of bets have increased each year. The first 2 years I was slightly down, but last year was very fruitful and ended up being up for the year and being up for the 3 years in total.

Apart from the days throughout the season when I go to the racing, I will rarely ever have a bet. My betting is all all but geared towards and then during that one week in March. I take the view that i'll be down and have lost money but anything that comes in is a bonus and ideally if it can pay for the next years festival fund that is ideal. I'm sure many would consider my bets small stakes and as i do it throughout the year by the time March rolls round i don't really even count the lost bets as they were placed so long ago.

Regarding angles - another is to be on the ball for the open days/stable tours coming out in September/October. It's hard to find many trainers nailing down specific trips or targets but there's always horses where by the decision between sticking over hurdles or going chasing and this can have an effect on prices. Altior is one stand out for this at the moment. It's assumed he'll go over fences for the Arkle so his price for the Champion Hurdle is pretty generous at 8/1. If Henderson comes out and says they've decided to stick over hurdles that'll be slashed straight away so if you can get on as soon as the news breaks you may beat the bookies updating the price.
 
gjt7756 said:
No one particular article to be honest, just been hunting through the Goffs sale records and Getabird was purchased by Harold kirk for Mullins as the top lot at £200,000 after his good win in the largy, and now ricci has taken ownership of him, he may even be one for the future as from a good chasing family with J'y Vole (trained by Mullins) and Long run as we all know won the King George and gold cup, Top ville Ben I know less about, seems to just be a bit of a talking horse on social media Pages, won his only point to point in Ireland and sent straight to Hendos yard, thought to be seen a good hurdling prospect which is why I asked the guys on here if they've heard anything further
Click to expand...

good info :encouragement:

top ville ben p2p http://www.p2p.ie/horses.php?ajacti...e_name=TOP VILLE BEN (IRE)&year_of_birth=2012
 
Got my 25% bonus from 365 so in again on these :)


Jezki World Hurdle 2017
(Win And Each Way) 16/03/2017 3 Places
1/4 Odds 14/1 To Run
Garde La Victoire Ryanair Chase 2017
(Win And Each Way) 16/03/2017 3 Places
1/4 Odds 33/1 To Run
Buveur D'air JLT Novices' Chase 2017
(Win And Each Way) 17/03/2017 3 Places
1/4 Odds 14/1 To Run
Unowhatimeanharry National Hunt Chase 2017
(Win And Each Way) 14/03/2017 3 Places
1/4 Odds 20/1 To Run
Barters Hill RSA Chase 2017
(Win And Each Way) 15/03/2017 3 Places
1/4 Odds 14/1 To Run
 
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