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Cheltenham 2015 Antepost Bets

  • Thread starter Thread starter Yeehaa
  • Start date Start date
A couple of stinkers, but here are mine.

Day 1
Seedling Supreme 33
Arctic Fire Champion Hurdle 33
Irving Champion Hurdle 50

Day 2
Tell Us More Neptune 7
Dodging Bullets QMCC 12
The Young Master RSA 16

Day 3
Gilgamboa JLT 10
Johns Spirit Ryanair 12
Ballynagour Ryanair 33
Lieutenant Colonel World Hurdle 12
Blue Fasion World Hurdle 20
Un Temps Pour Tout World Hurdle 16

Day 4
Seamour Triumph 50
Thomas Brown Albert Bartlett 16
Road To Riches Gold Cup 10
 
Here is a question.

Lets say if you usually bet 1pt = £100 stake. How much % of that £100 would you place on AP bets? Does not include NRNB!
 
My Stinkers are Chartbreaker and Alvisio Ville Neptune.
 
loveracing said:
Here is a question.

Lets say if you usually bet 1pt = £100 stake. How much % of that £100 would you place on AP bets? Does not include NRNB!
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I assume you're talking metaphorically LR and are asking if someone changes the amount they bet because its an ante post bet?

If so, then my answer is I don't alter my stake for AP bets. The only thing I try to ensure upon is that the horse is definitely going to run in that intended race before backing it. I've been a little more speculative this year with some of the Gigginstown runners but am working on educated guesses so fingers crossed with those!
 
Lessey said:
I assume you're talking metaphorically LR and are asking if someone changes the amount they bet because its an ante post bet?

If so, then my answer is I don't alter my stake for AP bets. The only thing I try to ensure upon is that the horse is definitely going to run in that intended race before backing it. I've been a little more speculative this year with some of the Gigginstown runners but am working on educated guesses so fingers crossed with those!
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Thats good to hear Lessey, maybe I need to be more patient and not hit the button so quick and try determine whether the horse will run or not. Anyway, I seem to bottle it and only bet half my usual stake on ap bets. :p
 
Day 1

Supreme

2pt @ 10/1 L'Ami Serge
1pt @ 33/1 Qewy
1pt @ 28/1 Tell Us More


Champion Hurdle

0.5pt ew @ 33/1 Hurricane Fly


Mares Hurdle

1pt ew @ 50/1 Mayfair Music


National Hunt Chase

2pt Wounded Warrior @ 10/1



Day 2


Neptune

2pt Kilcrea Vale @ 14/1
1pt Beast of Burden @ 50/1


RSA

1pt @ 25/1 Apache Jack
2pt @ 14/1 Coneygree


QMCC

2pt @ 20/1 Champagne Fever
1pt ew @ 33/1 Simply Ned


Champion Bumper

2pt @ 14/1 Moon Racer
2pt @ 14/1 Un Quart De Tour



Day 3


JLT

1pt @ 40/1 The Tullow Tank


Ryanair

1pt @ 25/1 Ma Filleule
2pt @ 16/1 Taquin De Seuil


World Hurdle

0.5pt @ 50/1 Rock on Ruby
1.5pt @ 14/1 Saphir Du Rheu
0.5pt @ 40/1 See You At Midnight



Day 4


Triumph

2pt Hargam @ 14/1


Albert Bartlett

2pt @ 25/1 Shantou Bob
2pt @ 14/1 No More Heroes


Gold Cup

0.5pt @ 60/1 Many Clouds
1pt @ 33/1 Road to Riches
1pt @ 33/1 Coneygree (NRNB)


That's the good, and the live...
 
I've got several bad and ugly ones, too!

Supreme

2pt @ 20/1 Silver Concorde


Champ Hurdle

2pt @ 25/1 Vaniteux
2pt @ 25/1 Irving


Triumph

2pt @ 25/1 Golden Doyen


Ryanair

2pt @ 25/1 Al Ferof
2pt @ 25/1 Djakadam
2pt @ 20/1 Ballycasey
2pt @ 25/1 Caid Du Berlais


I also backed Al Ferof @ 25/1 in the QMCC as well, so he owes me a few quid :D
 
At what stage does everyone start backing for next years Fest?

There are some nice odds you have there.
 
loveracing said:
Thats good to hear Lessey, maybe I need to be more patient and not hit the button so quick and try determine whether the horse will run or not. Anyway, I seem to bottle it and only bet half my usual stake on ap bets. :p
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Haha but you get the odds when no one knows if they're running!
 
loveracing said:
At what stage does everyone start backing for next years Fest?

There are some nice odds you have there.
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Even the blind squirrel can find a few nuts :)

Because I only bet small, I'm probably a bit cavalier in the manner I bet antepost... It looks ok when I'm lucky, but as you can see with several of them, it goes wrong...
 
Don't have much of an Ante Post portfolio at the moment, but here's what I've plumped for so far;

£20 Treble - Douvan @ 7/4
- Un De Sceaux @ 8/11
- Faugheen @ 5/4

£10 E/W - Coneygree @ 7/1 - RSA

£10 E/W - Champagne Fever @ 6/1 - Champion Chase
 
Found that Donn Bet from last year I did it as yankee - as an eachway L15 it would have done OK.

Donn has a Cheltenham 2014 one for us...


Just 354 days to go to Cheltenham, then, and here’s a Lucky 15 that might while away the hours:

Champagne Fever, RSA Chase
Best odds: 12/1
If you were mildly surprised that Champagne Fever had the speed to win a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (guilty), then you hadn’t allowed for Ruby Walsh’s guile. The quick-slow-quick pace that Ruby set allowed Champagne Fever cover the two-mile course with maximum efficiency, while at the same time allowing the race to be run in such a manner that would suit his strengths.

Champagne Fever was a full second faster from the first flight to the second than Rock On Ruby was in the Champion Hurdle. A slow middle section of the race allowed him come home from the second-last flight to the line almost six seconds faster than Rock On Ruby, who went fast-fast-relatively-slow through the Champion Hurdle.

A Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner who will probably go chasing next year, you automatically think that the Arkle will be next season’s ultimate objective for Champagne Fever, and the bookmakers seem to be going along with that line of thinking in putting him in at 6/1 for the two-mile novices’ race. However, there is a huge chance that he is a staying chaser in the making rather than a two-mile chaser, and 12/1 about him for the RSA Chase make more appeal.

Jezki seemed to out-speed Willie Mullins’ horse in the Royal Bond Hurdle over two miles at Fairyhouse last December and, when he won the Deloitte Hurdle at Leopardstown in February over two and a quarter miles, it appeared that the further he went the stronger he was getting.

Winner of the Champion Bumper last year and now winner of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, two for two at the Cheltenham Festival, he will be a huge player in whichever race he contests at next year’s Festival please God, but 12/1 about him for the RSA is much more appealing than 6/1 about him for the Arkle (or 20/1 for the Champion Hurdle, for that matter).

My Tent Or Yours, Champion Hurdle
Best odds: 10/1
Our Conor was the horse that I wanted to put in the retirement Lucky 15 for the Champion Hurdle, but the world has now gone Our Conor mad, and 5/1 about him now, a four-going-five-year-old, given that only one five-year-old has won the Champion since See You Then won it when you couldn’t get out of school to watch it, is just a little short.

After Our Conor, it was close between The New One and My Tent Or Yours but, at a bigger price, JP McManus’ horse shades it. It was, of course, disappointing on the face of it that he couldn’t win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, but he faced two high-class rivals in Champagne Fever and Jezki, and the three of them were clear of their field in a good time. Also, the race probably wasn’t run to suit the Nicky Henderson-trained gelding’s speed, and he went into the race on the back of a tough race in the Betfair Hurdle. Next year, all going well, you can be certain that he will be trained with the objective of reaching his peak on the first day of the Cheltenham Festival, not on the second Saturday in February.

His performance in winning the Betfair Hurdle off a mark of 149 was the performance of a top class horse. Indeed, his profile is remarkably similar to that of the ill-fated Darlan: same connections, all class, all speed, left deep impression in the Betfair Hurdle, finished second in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. And Darlan would probably have raced up the run-in to Champion Hurdle favouritism at Doncaster last month had he not, lamentably, got the final flight wrong.

My Tent Or Yours is only six, and if he wins at Aintree as impressively as Darlan did last season, you can be sure that the 10/1 that is currently available about him for next year’s Champion won’t last very long.

Lord Windermere, Gold Cup
Best odds: 25/1
Lord Windermere still has to step up significantly on what he has achieved to date to get even close to Bobs Worth and Sir Des Champs, but he probably didn’t get due credit for winning the RSA Chase last week, and he shouldn’t be a 25/1 shot for next year’s Gold Cup.

A lot of the focus after the RSA Chase was on how unlucky Boston Bob was, and it is true, if Willie Mullins’ horse had jumped the last well, he is a horse who finds lots for pressure, and you can be sure that he would have stayed on up the hill. He might have won, but he might not.

Lord Windermere stumbled a little crossing the path just before the home turn, he lost his pitch on the inside, so Davy Russell had to angle him out around horses early in the home straight. When he did hit the front on the run in, he pricked his ears and hung a little to his right into the whip, leaving the impression that he had plenty more left to give.

He is only seven, this was just his sixth chase, and he seemed to improve for encountering better ground and stepping up in trip to an extended three miles for the first time. We know now that he handles Cheltenham, and he has plenty more to offer as a high-class staying steeplechaser.

At Fishers Cross, World Hurdle
Best odds: 8/1
Nothing hugely original, but At Fishers Cross looks over-priced at 8/1 for the World Hurdle if he remains over the smaller obstacles.

The Rebecca Curtis-trained gelding has been impressive all season, progressing with each run. He beat Neptune Hurdle winner The New One over an inadequate two and a half miles at Cheltenham in January, and he could hardly have been more impressive in winning the Albert Bartlett Hurdle last Friday.

Good ground would be an unknown, just because he has never raced on it, but such is the speed and that class that he shows, there is every chance that he could be as effective on goodish ground as he is on heavy over staying trips, and it is unlikely that we will ever have a fast-ground Festival again anyway. Also, Solwhit will be 10 next year, and Big Buck’s will be 11 so, even if the multiple champ does return in peak condition, another World Hurdle would be a big ask.

Only one horse aged older than nine has won the World Hurdle in its 40-year history, and there is room now for a new youngster to lay claim to the title.
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loveracing said:
At what stage does everyone start backing for next years Fest?

There are some nice odds you have there.
Click to expand...

I was putting money down back in july, with un de sceax at 10s and faugheen 6s. im interested now in un de sceaux for next years champion chase at 5-1
 
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