• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Champion Hurdle 2020

Quevega said:
Epatante - Champion Hurdle winner 2020.

I think anyone who is disregarding this mare for the race irrespective of price should think again.
Anyone not already on her should bet her at 4-1 or better if this becomes available. Maybe 7/2. Especially if the other mares don't run here.

Her defeat of several of her likely opponents in the Christmas hurdle is the strongest piece of form at 2 miles this season by far.
The race was run at a strong enough pace that some well fancied horses pulled up, and the stronger stayers were the only ones that were able to chase her home. They weren't making ground up either.

But if you watch what she did specifically, she not only went with the strong pace easily, she was able to then kick away and looked value for more than her winning margin.

The doubts about acting on the track have some validity, but is it really fair to say that was her true ability last March when you see what she did at Christmas ? I'd say No Fucking way.

And I don't believe that a different track makes much difference to most horses aside from obvious speed vs stamina bias concerns.
I think that although Kempton is a speed track, I think the speed they went that day and the ground turned this particular renewal into a more stamina based test than usual.

At the moment, if the other two mares stay in the mares, then I don't think she has any competition, and if she is available at around the 4-1 mark on or nearer the day I'm pretty sure it's a 10pt bet for me.

However, should either of the mares come here then I'll probably let her run with the 1pt I already have on her at 44-1.
I think she'd beat Honeysuckle but would not be confident enough to stake more on her, and I think BDD would beat her but would not be confident about that either.
Click to expand...

Agree with this completely - think she is being overlooked just because it's a mad Champion Hurdle this year and there seems to be plenty of options. Wins easily for me if none of the other mares turn up.
 
She's one I'd look to back on the day 'Q'.

Just hope she drifts, as I'd really struggle to take anything below 5/1 for her though.

And it's easy to say when you are sitting pretty with a 44/1 ticket on her :devilish: I'd be feeling pretty smug with myself :highly_amused:

She owes me nothing though, I'm 8pts in profit with her just through the 33/1 ticket I had her in the mares for that was cashed :encouragement:
 
Quevega said:
Epatante - Champion Hurdle winner 2020.

I think anyone who is disregarding this mare for the race irrespective of price should think again.
Anyone not already on her should bet her at 4-1 or better if this becomes available. Maybe 7/2. Especially if the other mares don't run here.

Her defeat of several of her likely opponents in the Christmas hurdle is the strongest piece of form at 2 miles this season by far.
The race was run at a strong enough pace that some well fancied horses pulled up, and the stronger stayers were the only ones that were able to chase her home. They weren't making ground up either.

But if you watch what she did specifically, she not only went with the strong pace easily, she was able to then kick away and looked value for more than her winning margin.

The doubts about acting on the track have some validity, but is it really fair to say that was her true ability last March when you see what she did at Christmas ? I'd say No Fucking way.

And I don't believe that a different track makes much difference to most horses aside from obvious speed vs stamina bias concerns.
I think that although Kempton is a speed track, I think the speed they went that day and the ground turned this particular renewal into a more stamina based test than usual.

At the moment, if the other two mares stay in the mares, then I don't think she has any competition, and if she is available at around the 4-1 mark on or nearer the day I'm pretty sure it's a 10pt bet for me.

However, should either of the mares come here then I'll probably let her run with the 1pt I already have on her at 44-1.
I think she'd beat Honeysuckle but would not be confident enough to stake more on her, and I think BDD would beat her but would not be confident about that either.
Click to expand...

Agree with this totally. As it stands she is definitely the one they all have to beat and I'd still be confident if Honeysuckle or BDD show up. i think last years performance has put a lot of people off (which i do understand) but judging on the win at Kempton and the current expected field (without the other two mares), I'm surprised she is not shorter than the current prices around.
 
Epatante has the best piece of form but last years course form is a serious niggle. Whether that was a reaction to the flu jab or getting buzzy on the day ( Barry Gs Sporting index video) you do have to make excuses for it. One for the day maybe.
 
The reason it's a poor Champion Hurdle is BECAUSE Epatante is favourite.

It's a bit like when Sire De Grugy was favourite for a Champion Chase?

I agree that in isolation her Christmas Hurdle win is the best 2 mile piece of form on offer from this season..... UNTIL THE ADONIS



Solo is up to 157, he'd get 8 lbs weight allowances.... puts him 165.

All in :devilish:



Hahha, I am joking.
 
I would agree Q that the Christmas Hurdle form by Epatante at Kempton is probably the best form shown on either side of the Irish Sea this season. However we mostly look for previous good form over course and distance as a basis for backing horses coming back to the track. So I believe there is a course specific bias to Cheltenham because of its undulations. In 2ml hurdles this is particularly so from just before the 2nd last on the downhill section until before the last where they hit the hill. Epatante didn't jump 3rd last or 4th last well last year but still travelled well but then found nothing.

So at current prices I won't be taking a chance and backing her
 
I see it printed so many times that the Christmas hurdle is the best piece of form on offer this season, of the other nine opponents that day only Ballyandy prefers deep ground.
Seems amazing so many quick ground horses can gather for the same race on the wrong ground but that’s how I viewed the race at the time and as impressive as Epatante was it almost a gift.

Yes it’s a weak race but for me the favourite has so many questions to answer...
 
Theres lots of talk about forgotten horses when it comes to Cheltenham, but Couer Sublime really is one of them. I think his latest run can be forgiven as he ran at a time Gordons yard supposedly wasnt “right”. Im sure he’s had wind surgery since his last outing and ive read somewhere (it may have even been on here) that davy russell says hes the best work horse in the yard. He has 3 lengths to find with Pentland hills on last years Triumph form, but he travelled much the best until right before the final hurdle last year. I can see this lad hitting the frame with Davy on board, possibly even getting up to win :encouragement:
 
Istabraq said:
I see it printed so many times that the Christmas hurdle is the best piece of form on offer this season, of the other nine opponents that day only Ballyandy prefers deep ground.
Seems amazing so many quick ground horses can gather for the same race on the wrong ground but that’s how I viewed the race at the time and as impressive as Epatante was it almost a gift.

Yes it’s a weak race but for me the favourite has so many questions to answer...
Click to expand...

It probably is the best piece of 2m form on offer which is a bit rubbish, but its a shit division. I watched the Xmas hurdle a few times after Q's post because I wanted to oppose (as I have all season), but she was mightily impressive, and I have to agree with the OP that she looked value for more than her winning margin.
 
The big question with Epatante is whether you can trust her to produce her best on the track. If you are willing to forgive her run last year and believe Hendo’s flu jab explanation, then her price represents value. If we knew she was fully effective around Cheltenham then she’s probably a 6/4 shot on form. 7/2, 4/1 is not enough to tempt me in as personally I don’t buy it and don’t think she will come up the hill well enough. Willing to miss out and move on if I’m wrong.
 
charlie said:
It probably is the best piece of 2m form on offer which is a bit rubbish, but its a shit division. I watched the Xmas hurdle a few times after Q's post because I wanted to oppose (as I have all season), but she was mightily impressive, and I have to agree with the OP that she looked value for more than her winning margin.
Click to expand...

I agree its a shit division and a poor renewal but i think this is the main reason her ability has been overlooked.. if the field was stronger and she was bigger odds, i think people would point out her positives more than her negatives on the back of recent performances. The fact she is favourite and its a weak field, people are picking holes a lot more in what was a really good performance at Kempton.
 
Morley Street said:
The big question with Epatante is whether you can trust her to produce her best on the track. If you are willing to forgive her run last year and believe Hendo’s flu jab explanation, then her price represents value. If we knew she was fully effective around Cheltenham then she’s probably a 6/4 shot on form. 7/2, 4/1 is not enough to tempt me in as personally I don’t buy it and don’t think she will come up the hill well enough. Willing to miss out and move on if I’m wrong.
Click to expand...

Yeah I think this is the case with many - her run last year has put people off but I'm happy to accept Hendo's excuse as she has shown no signs of that form since. Won't be going all in on her just in case I'm wrong, but think 3/1 is acceptable in such a disastrous CH this year. I do think Honeysuckle will still end up here, in which case Epatante's price might drift slightly.
 
The issue last year was the period after the jabs were given, I think the BHA introduced quarantine period for a set duration after the jabs were given so horses couldn’t race.
archie/BoF will know more....
 
We can debate from dusk til dawn about the merits of her price but to summarise ..

Worst quality field for many a year but it is what it is ...sadly

Her price is too short now IMO and I can’t confidently wade into her on a retrieval mission and won’t

Have0.3 pts win @33/1 which goes nowhere rectifying situation :rolleyes:

Like many on here have done my bollocks on KD / Saldier / Beuveur Dair

Have deliberately avoided this thread for a while as just the mention of CH this year leaves a sour taste :rolleyes:

No rant merely saying as I see it :(

Congratulations to all who return a profit on this race
 
Humble Pie said:
We can debate from dusk til dawn about the merits of her price but to summarise ..

Worst quality field for many a year but it is what it is ...sadly

Her price is too short now IMO and I can’t confidently wade into her on a retrieval mission and won’t

Have0.3 pts win @33/1 which goes nowhere rectifying situation :rolleyes:

Like many on here have done my bollocks on KD / Saldier / Beuveur Dair

Have deliberately avoided this thread for a while as just the mention of CH this year leaves a sour taste :rolleyes:

No rant merely saying as I see it :(

Congratulations to all who return a profit on this race
Click to expand...

That will be the bookmakers :devilish:
 
charlie said:
09/02/2019
Click to expand...

So Nicky's view on the jabs was that some of the horses were fine from the jabs, and some weren't, including Epatante.

Yet she ran to an ok level on the 22nd feb which was almost 2 weeks after the jab.

Surely that wouldn't have happened if she wasn't well.
 
jack1092 said:
So Nicky's view on the jabs was that some of the horses were fine from the jabs, and some weren't, including Epatante.

Yet she ran to an ok level on the 22nd feb which was almost 2 weeks after the jab.

Surely that wouldn't have happened if she wasn't well.
Click to expand...

Could have nothing to do with the jab. Plenty of horses improve from 5 to 6 and she went to the festival last year relatively inexperienced running here. She could just be a better animal this year no?
 
Nicky admitted he cannot prove it had anything to do with the Jab, he was simply guessing to provide an excuse for her performance that he expected to have been far better.
Which is fair comment.
I'd say it was likely something else affecting her on the day - but my personal opinion is that it's also unlikely to be the course either.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom