Champion Hurdle 2019

[Scooby91]

Jono, have I remembered correctly that you know connections of Western Ryder, or is it Istabraq? Was just wondering if you knew if the Greatwood was the plan for the horse, as think he looks a stand out candidate in the absence of If The Cap Fits?

That's the plan.

Iv a few quid on at 20s ew and I asked the owner 1st.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

That's the plan.

Iv a few quid on at 20s ew and I asked the owner 1st.

Cheers... had a small bet at 16's but will top up at 14's.

 

[jono]

Jono, have I remembered correctly that you know connections of Western Ryder, or is it Istabraq? Was just wondering if you knew if the Greatwood was the plan for the horse, as think he looks a stand out candidate in the absence of If The Cap Fits?

Sadly Not me CCM - thats Ista. But yes I believe that is the plan still, owners son said he is Greatwood bound 3 days ago on twitter :encouragement:

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Sadly Not me CCM - thats Ista. But yes I believe that is the plan still, owners son said he is Greatwood bound 3 days ago on twitter :encouragement:

Thanks Jono.

 

[Kevloaf]

I cannot wait to see If The Cap Fits tomorrow.

I only have "free bets" on at the moment in singles, but they were at 40/1 so he's a nice winner.

Agree with scooby, I feel he needs to be winning this well tomorrow to have a chance of winning a CH

He isn't priced up on his form tomorrow, he's priced up on the hype surrounding him - I am a little surprised I haven't backed him with any real money but in reality the CH market has been one to be cautious of because of Samcro and I'm still a big fan of Buveur D'Air.


As a fairly blanket rule I don't like backing the horses that come out of the juvenile year - I think the ratings they get are hugely inflated and even the "exceptional" 4 year olds seem to flop. I know Katchit won a CH but it was before my time so until lightning strikes again I just want to see it before I really believe it...

I also think WHAD is priced up as if he won the Triumph, and not the Aintree race that'd have suited him way more (in regards to the CH market, not so much for tomorrow)... I don't have We Have A Dream down as a credible CH contender at this stage... but if he slams tomorrows field I'll obviously have to re-asses. I'd take him on tomorrow though for that reason.

 

[Innoko]

Katchits CH was a port renewal and Sizing Europe had it in the bag before sadly going wrong.

 

[charlie]

I’m on We Have A Dream at 25/1 for the CH and expect him to win today

 

[Scooby91]

I’m on We Have A Dream at 25/1 for the CH and expect him to win today

Big shout. I'd be confident he'll get turned over by ITCF. Player if he wins convincingly though.

 

[archie]

The stats make winning the Elite Hurdle pretty much the kiss of death for the Champion Hurdle.

 

[billymag]

Elite looks a belter, race of the day, cant wait. GL everyone today with whatever your on. Hoping ITCFs does the business but this looks tough.

 

[Kevloaf]

The stats make winning the Elite Hurdle pretty much the kiss of death for the Champion Hurdle.

Hate these stats.

Challow Hurdle winners blah blah
Peterborough Chase winners have no chance blah blah

The most boring and useless "stats" that are involved in the sport.

 

[Scooby91]

Elite looks a belter, race of the day, cant wait. GL everyone today with whatever your on. Hoping ITCFs does the business but this looks tough.

Looks a very easy race compared to the CH. I'll expect him to come off the bridle but be pushed clear of these convincingly.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Hate these stats.

Challow Hurdle winners blah blah
Peterborough Chase winners have no chance blah blah

The most boring and useless "stats" that are involved in the sport.

I wouldn't be so hasty Kev.
What these trends suggest is that to win certain races you need certain strengths, and different courses demand different strengths.
The Elite hurdle trend I think is relevant because Wincanton is a right handed track that suits nippy types with a downhill straight, the polar opposite of Cheltenham.

The Challow trend remains a mystery....

 

[doctorwu]

Hate these stats.

Challow Hurdle winners blah blah
Peterborough Chase winners have no chance blah blah

The most boring and useless "stats" that are involved in the sport.

But totally factual Kev. I won't be backing any horse in the Ryanair who wins the PC:highly_amused:

 

[doctorwu]

You would have to say that ITCF gets beat today that would be the end of his hurdling career, what with his age. Novice chasing awaits.

 

[archie]

Stats are part of your armoury and it's dumb to ignore them rather than drill down and get to the bottom of them.

Obviously, about half the winners at Cheltenham are Irish so they are unlikely to go to Wincanton in November. Henderson started off Punjabi, Binocular and Buveur D'Air in the Fighting Fifth so maybe the Elite is a few weeks early in the season when you're laying out your best horses towards the spring festivals.

 

[Kevloaf]

Stats are part of your armoury and it's dumb to ignore them rather than drill down and get to the bottom of them.

Obviously, about half the winners at Cheltenham are Irish so they are unlikely to go to Wincanton in November. Henderson started off Punjabi, Binocular and Buveur D'Air in the Fighting Fifth so maybe the Elite is a few weeks early in the season when you're laying out your best horses towards the spring festivals.

So because Henderson has had sucess starting off horses 3 weeks later, it is ridiculous for me to think a trainer can win the Champion Hurdle by targeting the Elite Hurdle?

Henderson does what he does, and Mullins isn't likely to ever start a horse off at Wincanton... BUT surely the more relevant 'stat' would be that MULLINS or HENDERSON have better ammo and more likely to have Champion Hurdlers?!


Harry Fry won the Champion Hurdle, the "conventional" path of Fighting Fith wouldn't help his cause, as he'll face Buveur D'air first time out? Is Harry Fry today conceeding he DOESN'T have a Champion Hurdle horse because he's starting out in the Elite Hurdle?

Absolute nonsense on its own.


and Ista - I understand your point, I just think that you could hypothetically put ANY of the recent winners of the Champion Hurdle in the last 5 years in to the Elite Hurdle and they'd have won.... regardless of the opposing tracks...

Kempton is nothing like Cheltenham, has a horse never won the Christmas Hurdle and Champion Hurdle?



Are you ruling out any horse today for Cheltenham regardless of how the race goes? That seems a waste of time to me.... judge each race on its merit!


Do any of you see my point ?

 

[Kevloaf]

But totally factual Kev. I won't be backing any horse in the Ryanair who wins the PC:highly_amused:

Haha, I know, I think I remember you arguing the case at the time that you won't back Top Notch if he won that race - just checked and the original race was abandoned - I can't remember whether you still didn't fancy him when it was re-run at a different track or not though.... but you were against him all season, regardless of the Peterborough stat.


Shame we didn't get to find out

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Kempton is nothing like Cheltenham, has a horse never won the Christmas Hurdle and Champion Hurdle?

Do any of you see my point ?

I definitely see your point Kev and the comparison with Kempton adds weight to your argument because, as we all know, Kempton is very different to Cheltenham.
For me I have to assume that no-one knows the horse better than the trainer and if a trainer thinks a horse has the skills needed to win an Elite, a Fighting Fifth etc then there's nothing to say that horse won't win a Champion hurdle, just that you need a different set of skills, some horses might have the lot.

And for the record, the likes of Azertuip, Celestial Halo and Well Chief won the Elite, none won the CH but all went on to Festival success, perhaps in their festival winning season they had a different prep ?

As always food for thought...

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

So because Henderson has had sucess starting off horses 3 weeks later, it is ridiculous for me to think a trainer can win the Champion Hurdle by targeting the Elite Hurdle?

Henderson does what he does, and Mullins isn't likely to ever start a horse off at Wincanton... BUT surely the more relevant 'stat' would be that MULLINS or HENDERSON have better ammo and more likely to have Champion Hurdlers?!


Harry Fry won the Champion Hurdle, the "conventional" path of Fighting Fith wouldn't help his cause, as he'll face Buveur D'air first time out? Is Harry Fry today conceeding he DOESN'T have a Champion Hurdle horse because he's starting out in the Elite Hurdle?

Absolute nonsense on its own.


and Ista - I understand your point, I just think that you could hypothetically put ANY of the recent winners of the Champion Hurdle in the last 5 years in to the Elite Hurdle and they'd have won.... regardless of the opposing tracks...

Kempton is nothing like Cheltenham, has a horse never won the Christmas Hurdle and Champion Hurdle?



Are you ruling out any horse today for Cheltenham regardless of how the race goes? That seems a waste of time to me.... judge each race on its merit!


Do any of you see my point ?

Bang on Kev. It's all just coincidental imo and I could never put a line through a horse because he won a certain race earlier in the season. Makes no sense to me.