Kev, without wanting to sound patronising, rather than dashing off several hundred words of deathless prose, if you'd taken the time to read my posts properly you'd have noticed that I said that stats are one of the weapons in your armoury and that you need to drill down to explain them.
I gave you the starter for ten that Irish trainers win approx half of the Champion Hurdles and, as they have their own race at Down Royal for the early starters, it's unlikely that they'd bother with Wincanton. Henderson has a proven preference for the Fighting Fifth for his better prospects so his unproven horses are likely to go for the Elite and avoid the likes of BDA. I'd suggest that no horse winning this and going on to take the Champion Hurdle in over 25 years is, indeed, worthy of the description, 'kiss of death'. However, last time I looked I wasn't holding a gun to anyone's head.
As for the Ascot race, as it's over two and a half it's not such a natural starter for Champion Hurdle contenders and you see the likes of Baracouda, Monet's Garden and Silviniaco Conti amongst previous winners. However, you also see Gaye Brief, Dawn Run and Morley Street so there is at least some slack to be cut in those stats.
Everyone should go with their instincts in what and how they bet. I hardly ever do a book on a race and it's ironic that last season's Champion is the only time I can remember doing one. Because I knew from an early stage (and said so on here) that Melon was a definite intended runner, I had him ew at 16/1. I also had Faugheen 4/1 NRNB when he made his comeback and 5/1 BDA when he drifted out at around the same time. Never had another bet on the race after that.
