Champion Hurdle 2019

[billymag]

I watched Gordon today being asked about Samcro, he said he will start work again next week if vets give him the all clear. I realise that Im completely talking from my pocket, but.... if hes ok then why not run him at the festival, nothing to lose? And I might have an outside chance of getting the rest of my antepost CH stake back!!!!

 

[charlie]

I watched Gordon today being asked about Samcro, he said he will start work again next week if vets give him the all clear. I realise that Im completely talking from my pocket, but.... if hes ok then why not run him at the festival, nothing to lose? And I might have an outside chance of getting the rest of my antepost CH stake back!!!!

No point risking it. Bought and bred to win over fences in time and being just ok won’t be enough. Will have to show them he is absolutely flying at home to even be considered for this now, and even that might not be enough to convince MOL

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Small Twitter murmurs that Buveur D'air could go straight to Cheltenham now. I think that's probably for the best as I think he runs his best races fresh.

 

[archie]

https://www.attheraces.com/news/2019/January/16/buveur-d’air-may-pass-up-sandown-date

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Ah, there you go, hadn't seen the story too.

 

[billymag]

Fair enough Charlie but why is going back into work next week? I did say i might be pocket talking and theres a good chance i am, but they must be giving him ago, and thinking about the spring festivals, otherwise he wouldnt be going back into work, they would just draw stumps. I accept that if he doesnt sparkle then they are probably going to give him an early summer holiday, Im just clinging on to the small hope it actually was a lung infection holding him back.

 

[Quevega]

Willie might enter Laurina for the contenders now and see if the race looks suitable nearer the time.

 

[Istabraq]

Haha ... maybe.

Which do you think is an easier task?

Buveur over 2m


Apples and Benie over 2m4f?

On let's say 'soft'?

She has so little ‘racing’ experience I don’t see her as a champion hurdler, not convinced she’s ever jumped a flight at full racing speed and 2m on the Old Course will be too sharp against a proven champion like Buveur D’Air.
AJ and Benie obviously no mugs and will make her work but I personally think they’d be foolish to bypass thr Mares...

 

[Quevega]

https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/lynch/laurina-focus-on-the-flat-formula-1712019

Article, which pretty much articulates (as an article should) why Laurina is the price she is.
I particularly like the last paragraph.

added it here in case you can't be arsed to read full article..

Racing is as simple or as complex as you want it to be, but the simplicity of putting a number on Laurina’s Champion chance contains the complexities of estimation by exemplification, less of the fixed form lines and more reading between them. Like the earth, the Flat approach makes Laurina more rounded.

 

[bobbyvalentino]

https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/lynch/laurina-focus-on-the-flat-formula-1712019

Article, which pretty much articulates (as an article should) why Laurina is the price she is.
I particularly like the last paragraph.

added it here in case you can't be arsed to read full article..

Racing is as simple or as complex as you want it to be, but the simplicity of putting a number on Laurina’s Champion chance contains the complexities of estimation by exemplification, less of the fixed form lines and more reading between them. Like the earth, the Flat approach makes Laurina more rounded.

I really struggle with Lynch's writing style, he seems to use language for the sake of it, but some fair points. I'm starting to come round to the idea that she might indeed manage to win given the likely opposing candidates have by and large fallen by the wayside.

Far too short for me to back at this price, however I do think it would be a great story for the festival that looks to lack many real stars at this stage.

 

[Morley Street]

https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/lynch/laurina-focus-on-the-flat-formula-1712019

Article, which pretty much articulates (as an article should) why Laurina is the price she is.
I particularly like the last paragraph.

added it here in case you can't be arsed to read full article..

Racing is as simple or as complex as you want it to be, but the simplicity of putting a number on Laurina’s Champion chance contains the complexities of estimation by exemplification, less of the fixed form lines and more reading between them. Like the earth, the Flat approach makes Laurina more rounded.

Really interesting article QV... Keep the faith!

 

[Quevega]

I really struggle with Lynch's writing style, he seems to use language for the sake of it, but some fair points. I'm starting to come round to the idea that she might indeed manage to win given the likely opposing candidates have by and large fallen by the wayside.

Far too short for me to back at this price, however I do think it would be a great story for the festival that looks to lack many real stars at this stage.

I agree, some of what he writes, when he tries to be clever is difficult to get through.
Even though his basic point is usually spot on.

 

[Kevloaf]

I feel like people have tried to make the points he is making too on here, that style and trainers do affect a price, and should as it's not just form that we have to use.

It does become tough to debate though, as the ones who like feel/style over the substance can only say "wait and see" and the ones who like the form can also only say "well we'll wait and see"...

Archie could give Lynch a schooling on the literature too

 

[iainmcf]

So laurina is the price she is because Mullins knows a Champuon Hurdle mare when he sees one.So why did it take him so long to put Annnie Power in the race and only because Faugheen got injured, and after running in the stayers and mares races.Jamie Lynch can spout what he likes,Laurine wont beat Buveur in a month of Sundays.I hope she runs here so we all see it,but I still think she will run in mares race.

 

[jack1092]

So laurina is the price she is because Mullins knows a Champuon Hurdle mare when he sees one.So why did it take him so long to put Annnie Power in the race and only because Faugheen got injured, and after running in the stayers and mares races.Jamie Lynch can spout what he likes,Laurine wont beat Buveur in a month of Sundays.I hope she runs here so we all see it,but I still think she will run in mares race.

Maybe because he already had Faugheen for the race ??

 

[Kevloaf]

So laurina is the price she is because Mullins knows a Champuon Hurdle mare when he sees one.So why did it take him so long to put Annnie Power in the race and only because Faugheen got injured, and after running in the stayers and mares races.Jamie Lynch can spout what he likes,Laurine wont beat Buveur in a month of Sundays.I hope she runs here so we all see it,but I still think she will run in mares race.

Different owner than Annie Power?
Had the favourite for the same owner for the CH anyway, with no where else to send them?

Have you read the article? He isn't saying Laurina will win the Champion Hurdle, he's explaining why she is the price she is.

I'll be shocked if Laurina doesn't end up a better horse than Verdana Blue.



I also disagree with the statement that Laurina wouldn't beat Buveur D'air in a month of Sundays - she'd have beaten him the day Verdana Blue beat him in my opinion. That happened (albeit not a Sunday) but fairly recently?

 

[iainmcf]

I read the article,i didn't say Lynch said Laurina would win,if you read my first sentence.So Annie could have won the champion hurdle the year Faugheen won and Faugheen could have won the stayers that Annie didn't win.

 

[Kevloaf]

I read the article,i didn't say Lynch said Laurina would win,if you read my first sentence.So Annie could have won the champion hurdle the year Faugheen won and Faugheen could have won the stayers that Annie didn't win.

So are you saying you can't fathom that the reason Annie Power didn't run in the Champion Hurdle is because the owner/trainer considered Faugheen to be a better horse?

Willie Mullins may have known she was good enough to win a Champion Hurdle and still decide to run her in the Mares? Do you accept that is a distinct possibility?

Having Laurina, for a different owner, when the favourite for the Champion Hurdle is with a different owner and trainer, is not the same thing.

 

[jack1092]

I read the article,i didn't say Lynch said Laurina would win,if you read my first sentence.So Annie could have won the champion hurdle the year Faugheen won and Faugheen could have won the stayers that Annie didn't win.

Coulda woulda shoulda.

Mullins did it the other way round + got a 1st and a 2nd, hardly the worst either.

Not sure the Annie Power argument covers Laurina at all but hey opinions.

 

[iainmcf]

What am saying is Laurina if running here I think will be because the owner wants to run here.If it was Mullins decision I think he would choose the mares race as she is not proven against anything other than other mares.I get the point about her price because it's a Mullins mare and Annie won it but that doesn't mean Mullins himself thinks she is that class but the owner obviously does.Its not Mullins style to do this.