Champion Hurdle 2019

[Kevloaf]

The fact that Elliott's motto has always been to "win the race you've got the most chance of winning" then it would make sense to consider the Stayers hurdle for Samcro following his opening 2 runs this season.

Have to say though i'll feel pretty sick if I end up seeing him line up over 3 miles hurdling having been strong on him for the RSA and having Ballymore bets roll onto that race

With the 20:20 vision of hindsight, seeing as I was Pro - "Samcro is a Future Gold Cup Horse", I'm backing him for the RSA", I should have been very much against him in the 2 mile chasing division :highly_amused:

Will try and learn from it.

 

[Quevega]

I wonder what Official Rating he will get, Higher than 169 for sure....
Faugheen's highest OR was 174 in the Morgiana and the Irish Champion Hurdle (Highest in UK a 171 in the Christmas Hurdle), whilst Hurricane Fly Achieved 175 a couple of times also in Ireland, 173 at Cheltenham.

Yesterday is going to be rated the best 2 mile hurdle performance we've seen in years. (Rightly so).

Still Melon 8/1 and Laurina 5/1 to come out, both without a run this season... no logic to Melon reversing the form at this stage and an almighty leap needed by Laurina, and she's not a certain target for the race.

Best price 12s for Samcro, may well go off 4/1 2nd fav on the day still!

BD been given 172 after saturday

 

[Quevega]

Apple's jade up to 162. With her allowance it puts her right up there in this and the stayers.

 

[charlie]

Whilst I would love to see AJ come here, i am 99% sure that Mr O’Leary is too stubborn to change his mind, so no point really thinking about it IMO

 

[Quevega]

Whilst I would love to see AJ come here, i am 99% sure that Mr O’Leary is too stubborn to change his mind, so no point really thinking about it IMO

Yep, I know, he's a funny fella for sure.
He'd probably not run a filly in the Arc either,
He's a feckin eediot

 

[charlie]

Yep, I know, he's a funny fella for sure.
He'd probably not run a filly in the Arc either,
He's a feckin eediot

The annoying thing is he could be a hero. Imagine if he said ‘this game is nothing without the regular punter, and everyone that talks to me about Apples Jade wants me to send her here, so that’s what we are going to do’. He would be held in much higher regard by the racing community, regardless of whether she won or lost. Anyway. Won’t happen, move on.

 

[Quevega]

The annoying thing is he could be a hero. Imagine if he said ‘this game is nothing without the regular punter, and everyone that talks to me about Apples Jade wants me to send her here, so that’s what we are going to do’. He would be held in much higher regard by the racing community, regardless of whether she won or lost. Anyway. Won’t happen, move on.

Just listened to Kevin Blake and he has a great idea.
Make the Mares hurdle a grade 2 (same prize money) So grade one winning mares would have to carry a penalty.
That would make em think. twice over.

 

[archie]

It's over 2 years since she even ran over 2 miles and she lost that race.

I thought she was as impressive in the Hattons Grace last year and at that stage everyone (me included) was saying she should go Stayers. I could give her a chance going that way again but not in the Champion. None of the big owners or trainers will give a second thought to running where and when they don't want and no-one should expect them to.

 

[Quevega]

It's over 2 years since she even ran over 2 miles and she lost that race.

I thought she was as impressive in the Hattons Grace last year and at that stage everyone (me included) was saying she should go Stayers. I could give her a chance going that way again but not in the Champion. None of the big owners or trainers will give a second thought to running where and when they don't want and no-one should expect them to.

I'd personally prefer to see her in the stayers as it's possibly the easiest option, given her allowance.
I'm not sure the one race over 2 mile 2 years ago makes a difference archie ?
Class is class, and half a mile won't make much difference for a horse like this.
I agree that owners should do what they please 100% of the time. No one should expect anything from them, but they should be encouraged to run there horses in the big races.

The racing industry is based around punters and racing enthusiasts who want to see great horses compete against each other as often as possible, so ideas like Blake's would likely help make this happen more often. Thus, bring more enthusiast's/owners in to the industry etc etc

The dilution of the competitive grade ones throughout the season will only lead to a slow loss of the audience's interest, and it now looks like the number of big handicaps is diluting these races also.

It;s the big clashes that sell the sport and increase it's popularity, so everything should be done to encourage this to happen. As all would benefit.

 

[jono]

Just listened to Kevin Blake and he has a great idea.
Make the Mares hurdle a grade 2 (same prize money) So grade one winning mares would have to carry a penalty.
That would make em think. twice over.

Another alternative would be to put a ceiling on the mares race in terms of ratings. You could get instances where mares are deliberately held back for their first run into the race but would put at least put a stop to the mares coming back for repeat bids in the race (i.e Quevaga, Apple's Jade) or dropping into the race for an easy win (Annie Power, Vroum Vroum)

 

[Quevega]

Another alternative would be to put a ceiling on the mares race in terms of ratings. You could get instances where mares are deliberately held back for their first run into the race but would put at least put a stop to the mares coming back for repeat bids in the race (i.e Quevaga, Apple's Jade) or dropping into the race for an easy win (Annie Power, Vroum Vroum)

I think repeat bids help with the romance but I get what you’re saying. Repeat wins would be fine but carrying a penalty.
I think Blake was the one who mentioned having a ceiling for novices also . Effectively pushing the best novices up in class or run in third own class with a penalty

 

[Kevloaf]

Just listened to Kevin Blake and he has a great idea.
Make the Mares hurdle a grade 2 (same prize money) So grade one winning mares would have to carry a penalty.
That would make em think. twice over.

YEah that's come up before, I agreed with it then (to be fair I agree with 99% of what he says usually)...

HOWEVER, this notion Apple's Jade would be a player in the Champion Hurdle is crazy?! She hasn't had a run over 2 miles since November 2016. She was beaten by Rashan and Irving, before stepping up in trip a week later and beating Vroum Vroum Mag. As a 4 year old they can only run over 2 miles so, but she CLEARLY improved for a step up in trip!

Elliott isn't an idiot, despite Samcro not proving he's up to CH class, he's the only one he's ever had that he thought is! They aren't forgetting Apple's Jade she just wouldn't have a realistic chance! Elliott has often said she doesn't look a 2 miler to him and did again at the weekend and it's just getting ignored because "that is what people want to see".


***took me a while to post, looks like I am in agreement.

 

[Quevega]

Yep as I’ve said I’d prefer stayers. But she’d beat most horse in training over 2 miles as well. I don’t care what Gordon thinks. His judgement isn’t always spot on as has been shown recently

 

[Quevega]

Gordon also bitterly regretted not running her in the Irish champion last season

 

[archie]

Bloody Hell, Quevega was possibly the best story in my thirty odd years of going to the Festival!

The whole point about raising the profile and value of mares races has been to encourage connections to run them rather than send them off to breed at the first opportunity. I have a preference for mares but many say that the mares allowance is unfair and has no scientific basis. I can see this for the big races and, rather like there are no penalties for Grade Ones, I could see the case for no allowances either. The best horse wins and that's that.

 

[jack1092]

Whilst I would love to see AJ come here, i am 99% sure that Mr O’Leary is too stubborn to change his mind, so no point really thinking about it IMO

Whilst on ratings she'd play a part, it's already been mentioned she's hardly run over two miles.

Also, as it stands, last year after Xmas her form fell off a cliff quite literally- so Elliot and co need to manage that as well, and there's no certainty that they will succeed in doing that....

Hopefully they run her at Leopardstown in February and we will know where we stand then + perhaps they could switch races if necessary.

 

[Kevloaf]

Yep as I’ve said I’d prefer stayers. But she’d beat most horse in training over 2 miles as well. I don’t care what Gordon thinks. His judgement isn’t always spot on as has been shown recently

That is an INCREDIBLY harsh statement!

Thought Samcro was a Champion Hurdler and has questionable judgement because he came 2nd to a dual CHler horse rated 172, with the Supreme winner 3000 miles back?


I know we're in agreement with the over-arching point, but question Gordon Elliott's judgement is sacrilege

 

[somer1]

Plan of attack for the next few weeks is to put BD in doubles with my £5 free bet from skybet as it looks like hes untouchable.
Makes a £5 free bet a £10 free bet in my book :highly_amused:

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Bloody Hell, Quevega was possibly the best story in my thirty odd years of going to the Festival!

The whole point about raising the profile and value of mares races has been to encourage connections to run them rather than send them off to breed at the first opportunity. I have a preference for mares but many say that the mares allowance is unfair and has no scientific basis. I can see this for the big races and, rather like there are no penalties for Grade Ones, I could see the case for no allowances either. The best horse wins and that's that.

I had Quevega at 1000 on Betfair for the Champion Hurdle the first year she ran in the mares. It'll always be a case of what could have been for me :sorrow:

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Willie had Hurricane Fly for 3 of them Quevega wins at the festival, I can guarantee if there was no mares' race we wouldn't have seen Quevega do what she did at all. Why would he have risked the mare in a champion hurdle when he had the fly fit for 3 of them.

I'm in favour of the mares races. I can't speak for certain but Archie has come out and said, how many great mares would we not have seen had it not been for these types of races? I suspect a lot would have gone down the breeding route.

I know she was to have her own excuses but it's not as if Apples Jade had it her way last season, it's becoming a lot more competitive and it's good for the mares and the sport.