Champion Hurdle 2019

[Morley Street]

I agree. Well done to those on at nice prices, but spot on, zero value (which I wouldn't expect at this stage)

'Laurina could be anything' is fast becoming one the most over used, annoying phrases. She could be nothing at the top level, we simply don't know and I'm not taking 7/2 to find out. Don't fancy Apples Jade. Jumping out to her right over 2m at a track she is hardly considered bombproof over doesn't appeal one bit at 15/8. BVD has dominated weaker looking champion hurdles. This will be the most competitive by far and again, 7/4 doesn't appeal.

I have gone with Melon 20/1 EW and Brain Power 20/1 EW.

The one thing I will say, is even though I won't be taking any of the prices on the top 3, I am looking forward to watching the race. BVD will not go down without a fight, Laurina could be the real deal and Apples Jade could just be much better this year than last year. For the reasons stated it makes it a non starter punting wise, but I can't wait to watch it!

So I suppose ‘could be the real deal’ is less annoying than ‘could be anything! What is annoying is the dismissive comments about Laurina by those who have failed to secure a price. Good luck with your bets.

 

[charlie]

So I suppose ‘could be the real deal’ is less annoying than ‘could be anything! What is annoying is the dismissive comments about Laurina by those who have failed to secure a price. Good luck with your bets.

My comments were in response to value now based on current prices. I said 'well done to those on at nice prices'.

There is nothing dismissive in saying I wouldn't back Laurina at 7/2, nor is there anything dismissive about looking at the language that's being used to describe her. To reiterate, at the current prices. Phrases like ‘could be the real deal’ or ‘could be anything' are based purely on conjecture at this stage, which is why I find them being repeatedly used annoying. Just my personal opinion.

If you took 10/1 a few months ago Morley Street then credit to you, I'd smash into that left and right. But this is a conversation on the 22nd Feb about a horse who is best priced 7/2 and what represents value now. Talking about that price in relation to her chances of winning should not be labelled as comments from someone who has 'failed to secure a price', it should be interpreted as someone who putting forward an opinion in a conversation about value.

 

[bobbyvalentino]

Yes I agree that there is an element of guesswork but if there wasn’t she wouldn’t be 7/2. It’s hard enough to pick between the two joint favs, so to get almost twice the price for the ‘could be anything’ factor, is a value bet IMO.

7/2 for a could be anything factor... in a champion hurdle... in this field.... calling that value?! madness to me


She might very well win, but you're playing roulette to find out

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

7/2 for a could be anything factor... in a champion hurdle... in this field.... calling that value?! madness to me


She might very well win, but you're playing roulette to find out

She is the worst price horse of the festival for me.

Up against a 2 time champion, who could still be improving, and a mare who looks like being ones of the best in recent times.

7/2 to beat those two, no thanks!

 

[Morley Street]

My comments were in response to value now based on current prices. I said 'well done to those on at nice prices'.

There is nothing dismissive in saying I wouldn't back Laurina at 7/2, nor is there anything dismissive about looking at the language that's being used to describe her. To reiterate, at the current prices. Phrases like ‘could be the real deal’ or ‘could be anything' are based purely on conjecture at this stage, which is why I find them being repeatedly used annoying. Just my personal opinion.

If you took 10/1 a few months ago Morley Street then credit to you, I'd smash into that left and right. But this is a conversation on the 22nd Feb about a horse who is best priced 7/2 and what represents value now. Talking about that price in relation to her chances of winning should not be labelled as comments from someone who has 'failed to secure a price', it should be interpreted as someone who putting forward an opinion in a conversation about value.

As I said originally, what is not considered value to one person could very well be value to another, so to categorically state there is no value is a little condescending IMO. I have backed Laurina down from 14s and will continue to support her because I still think her current price is value. I base my opinions on more than the one factor of proven form as I have had far more success over the years through following visual impressions, connections comments etc. If I am wrong then so be it and I will take it on the chin but at least I will not get arse splinters through sitting on the fence and only hazarding an opinion as to how good she is once the race has been ran.

 

[Morley Street]

7/2 for a could be anything factor... in a champion hurdle... in this field.... calling that value?! madness to me


She might very well win, but you're playing roulette to find out

I may be playing roulette but I’m playing a third of the wheel at slightly better odds and that is good enough for me.

 

[bobbyvalentino]

As I said originally, what is not considered value to one person could very well be value to another, so to categorically state there is no value is a little condescending IMO. I have backed Laurina down from 14s and will continue to support her because I still think her current price is value. I base my opinions on more than the one factor of proven form as I have had far more success over the years through following visual impressions, connections comments etc. If I am wrong then so be it and I will take it on the chin but at least I will not get arse splinters through sitting on the fence and only hazarding an opinion as to how good she is once the race has been ran.

Not condescending you're approach mate, just expressing our opinion

Tbh I don't really bet shorties anyway so I struggle to see the concept of value down at those odds (in championship races)

 

[Kevloaf]

7/2 isn't value for a third favourite in any race unless you have her significantly shorter... and my point was, you can't have her any shorter than she is? If you are, you're going to have to push out the two with much more solid claims...

No value in the entire market really as nothing ha's really solid each way claims either with the first 3 in the market looking like the best 3?

That's not condescending and the majority on the forum will have bigger prices about most of the horses.

Apples Jade at 6/1 NRNB was a better bet than Laurina at 7/2 would be now ... regardless of who wins?
I wouldn't back Apples Jade at her current price either

 

[charlie]

As I said originally, what is not considered value to one person could very well be value to another, so to categorically state there is no value is a little condescending IMO. I have backed Laurina down from 14s and will continue to support her because I still think her current price is value. I base my opinions on more than the one factor of proven form as I have had far more success over the years through following visual impressions, connections comments etc. If I am wrong then so be it and I will take it on the chin but at least I will not get arse splinters through sitting on the fence and only hazarding an opinion as to how good she is once the race has been ran.

You are spot on. Value means different things to different people which is why it seems odd you would find someone saying there is no value condescending. Its an opinion. This forum is a hotbed of people putting forward their opinions strongly - have no idea where these fence sitters are!

 

[Kevloaf]

You are spot on. Value means different things to different people which is why it seems odd you would find someone saying there is no value condescending. Its an opinion. This forum is a hotbed of people putting forward their opinions strongly - have no idea where these fence sitters are!

Here's an opinion.

People's opinions can be wrong. :highly_amused:

Presenting Percy is 4/1 with no horses shorter than him in the market
Laurina is 7/2 with two horses shorter in the market.

Both unproven in their respective races?

 

[boopa]

As I said originally, what is not considered value to one person could very well be value to another, so to categorically state there is no value is a little condescending IMO. I have backed Laurina down from 14s and will continue to support her because I still think her current price is value. I base my opinions on more than the one factor of proven form as I have had far more success over the years through following visual impressions, connections comments etc. If I am wrong then so be it and I will take it on the chin but at least I will not get arse splinters through sitting on the fence and only hazarding an opinion as to how good she is once the race has been ran.

What about her visually makes you think she's a Champion Hurdle winner in waiting? She looks more like a staying chaser to my eye

 

[Morley Street]

What about her visually makes you think she's a Champion Hurdle winner in waiting? She looks more like a staying chaser to my eye

You’re right boopa, her pedigree and size scream chasing over a trip will be where she ends up and maybe she’ll get to prove it in time. I just like the way she travels and effortlessly picks up and closes distance off a strong pace. It’s been said previously that we won’t know how good she is until she gets a tap or two and I couldn’t agree more, but can’t wait to find out.

 

[Quevega]

Think most had a point in this mini debate I’ve just read.
Not sure Morley needed to get as annoyed at Charlie though
I think I get what Morley saying in that it’s quute difficult to choose any of the three and be confident if you’re not already on at bigger prices.
So if you’re going picking from three, then laurina is the ‘value’ as she’s the bigger price.
How you weigh up all the potential and past form is up to each of us.
And she does like a chaser, but in my eyes she just looks shit hot and would go close in most races, any distance, hurdles or fences.

 

[charlie]

Think most had a point in this mini debate I’ve just read.
Not sure Morley needed to get as annoyed at Charlie though
I think I get what Morley saying in that it’s quute difficult to choose any of the three and be confident if you’re not already on at bigger prices.
So if you’re going picking from three, then laurina is the ‘value’ as she’s the bigger price.
How you weigh up all the potential and past form is up to each of us.
And she does like a chaser, but in my eyes she just looks shit hot and would go close in most races, any distance, hurdles or fences.

Decent summary that

 

[Rigga]

If all 3 arrive at the last on the Bridle... Where is your money ?

 

[ziggym]

Well said, she is the unknown and this race has been poor over the past few years. It's Laurina for me, but the CH has never been a good race for me, but this year, I will actually watch it from the stand, instead of the Guinness village.

 

[Kevloaf]

If all 3 arrive at the last on the Bridle... Where is your money ?

Tough one to answer.

For me, if Apple's Jade is still on the bridle she'd have destroyed them so they wouldn't be with her.... the jockey would have kicked.

Laurina no idea what she'd find off the bridle as she's never been close to needing it.

Buveur D'air has a turn of foot so I'd imagine he'd win if all 3 we're ion that spot... but I can't see all 3 coming to the last on the bridle at all :sorrow:

 

[boopa]

Money piling up for BD.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Did he run at Newbury after racing today? Thought I heard Racing TV mention that Hendo was galloping some horses after racing.

 

[delsie777]

Did he running at Newbury after racing today? Thought I heard Racing TV mention that Hendo was galloping some horses after racing.

Tomorrow morning