Nicky hasn't said he wasn't fully fit last year? It comes down to price I wouldn't want to lay some of the 35s on the machine earlier. He might not be good enough but I wouldn't be surprised if he ran another big race.
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Champion Hurdle 2019
- Thread starter Native River
- Start date
Nicky hasn't said he wasn't fully fit last year? It comes down to price I wouldn't want to lay some of the 35s on the machine earlier. He might not be good enough but I wouldn't be surprised if he ran another big race.
Quevega
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They've talked Melon up before both races this season. I think he's over rated by a good 10lbs.
But he does run well at cheltenham so you never know, but surely playing for one place this year at best.
I think he might just be shite and the supreme and champion he ran well in were poor.
He's definitely better at chelt though.
But he does run well at cheltenham so you never know, but surely playing for one place this year at best.
I think he might just be shite and the supreme and champion he ran well in were poor.
He's definitely better at chelt though.
I dopn't like Melon, but every horse has a price and all season when he was around 8-12/1 I said if he was 16/1 or bigger I'd consider it.
22/1 with the 2x 2nds I'll chance e/w and back now and lay off on the day when the money inevitably comes for him.
22/1 with the 2x 2nds I'll chance e/w and back now and lay off on the day when the money inevitably comes for him.
Quevega
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Do you think the likely make up of the field this year would lend itself to a gamble on Melon ?
Think punters will be picking from 3
Although it's granted it'll shorten as they all do.
No, I don't think it'll lend itself.... but I do think people will look at him 2nd last year, have question marks over Laurina and consider him an each way alternative toa win only on one of the front 3.
People aren't smart with 'each way scum bag bets' - (one of my biggest gripes is when podcasts etc describe an each way bet as a scumbag e/w bet)
I do think he'll get backed, on his Festvial record, each way.
delsie777
Member
I thought it sounded like Willie was toying with the Stayers with Melon - said perhaps he's just not as fast as he was
Melon doing a Nichols Canyon? Faugheen Penhill and Melon? Cold only see Melon going of one of them was not to make it. Maybe next year
What did he say to make you think that?
I’m very happy with him at the minute. We have our own reasons why we think he disappointed in the Irish Champion Hurdle and we are going to change a few things for Cheltenham that will hopefully help him. I don’t want to go into what those things are just yet, but we have a few ideas. I know Buveur D’Air’s connections think that he is better than he was on Champion Hurdle day last season, but I’d be hopeful Melon can be better than he was that day too.
Middle_Of_March
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Next door to We Have A Dream who had the sniffles so Henderson reckons that’s the reason he underperformed.
TimRiggins
Member
Said about reasons for the bad run etc.
Then 'Maybe Melon has grown into a 3 miler now, maybe he's just mightn't have the pace he used to have and might want to step out in trip'
https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/festival-file-willie-mullins/158811
From ~3m 50s in that.
Sounds like something that will be looked at after the festival, depending on the result. Rather than something he's looking at immediately.
Cheers Tim.
20/1 NRNB with sly,
Only 10s NRNB with PP
For the Stayers
He'd command a bit of attention even though he's a surrender monkey
If good ground I’m liking the bet of Sharjah without the top 2 on nose or each way depending on odds still think be decent with one of the top 3 still in the without market
Interesting that you think she'll be a great price ... I think it's espy hard to put a solid case forward for her to beat Buveur D'air or Apple's Jade .
. As a value pick that is
Morley Street
Member
Value is in the eye of the beholder Kev... 7/2 for an unbeaten Mullins Mare who has barely come off the bridle to beat her opposition and is ‘apparently’ being trained for one race in mind, for me represents value against two, albeit classy animals who for whatever reason, have disappointed in the past.
You're guessing though. Even they don't know. Willie would have her in the mares if he could. Every time he talks about her target the first thing he mentions is the owners.
Morley Street
Member
Yes I agree that there is an element of guesswork but if there wasn’t she wouldn’t be 7/2. It’s hard enough to pick between the two joint favs, so to get almost twice the price for the ‘could be anything’ factor, is a value bet IMO.
For me there's no value in the top 3 just a race to enjoy or have a small bet on one of the outsiders. Expect there will be big prices on the day.
charlie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. March 2021)
I agree. Well done to those on at nice prices, but spot on, zero value (which I wouldn't expect at this stage)
'Laurina could be anything' is fast becoming one the most over used, annoying phrases. She could be nothing at the top level, we simply don't know and I'm not taking 7/2 to find out. Don't fancy Apples Jade. Jumping out to her right over 2m at a track she is hardly considered bombproof over doesn't appeal one bit at 15/8. BVD has dominated weaker looking champion hurdles. This will be the most competitive by far and again, 7/4 doesn't appeal.
I have gone with Melon 20/1 EW and Brain Power 20/1 EW.
The one thing I will say, is even though I won't be taking any of the prices on the top 3, I am looking forward to watching the race. BVD will not go down without a fight, Laurina could be the real deal and Apples Jade could just be much better this year than last year. For the reasons stated it makes it a non starter punting wise, but I can't wait to watch it!