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Champion Hurdle 2019

Champion Hurdle 2019

  • Total voters
    75
All the right faces are on:highly_amused:

Pleased he's going for the international too. Shows a long term plan rather than quick wins.
 
Is it 100% confirmed If The Cap Fits stays hurdling next year lads?

I has happy with my two very early tickets on Summerville Boy & Labaik but hard not to have ITCF's on side given how confident I was on him for the Supreme this year.
 
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SeanRock said:
Is it 100% confirmed If The Cap Fits stays hurdling next year lads?

I has happy with my two very early tickets on Summerville Boy & Labaik but hard not to have ITCF's on side given how confident I was on him for the Supreme this year.
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In billymag we trust ....

I'm taking that as 100% given his record but I haven't seen official confirmation .... I'm happy to accept it's my mistake or not though.

Pm him though, he's a good egg!
 
On Summerville Boy (and also for Black Op over fences) - for anyone interested in backing him at his current odds of 16/1 it could be worth holding fire and waiting until after his seasonal debut.

If you look back at some of the higher profile Tom George horses of recent years they've almost always needed their first run (he has often made this comment during interviews at the time)...


Summerville Boy
17/18 : Beaten 0.75 lengths 2nd at Stratford at 5/4 2Fav and also 5.75 lengths 3rd at 9/4 2Fav on his third run (did finish 2nd at 16/1 between these races). Followed up by winning the Tolworth and Supreme

Black Op
17/18 : Beaten 7 lengths 4th in his Maiden Hurdle at Newbury at 3/1 2Fav. Followed up 1221

Sir Valentino
14/15 : Beaten 19 lengths 5th at 4/1 at Chepstow. Followed up 231F
15/16 : Beaten 12 lengths 8th at 25/1 at Cheltenham. Followed up 111525
16/17 : WON 8 lengths at 9/1 at Market Rasan. Followed up 48152
17/18 : PU at Exeter at 16/1. Followed up 1F

The Worlds End
16/17 : Beaten 9 lengths 3rd at Ffos Las in his Maiden Hurdle at 11/8 Fav. Followed up 111F1
17/18 : Beaten 33 lengths 8th at Haydock at 5/1 Fav. Did travel well through the race but weakened very quickly. Improved slowly as season went on despite ground against him

Singlefarmpayment
14/15 : Fell at 100/1 at Exeter. Followed up 22442
15/16 : Beaten 2 lengths at 16/1 at Ascot. Followed up 11P
16/17 : Beaten 4.5 lengths at 3/1 2Fav at Worcester. Followed up 21B2
17/18 : Beaten 4 lengths at 11/2 2Fav at Cheltenham. Followed up F5P52

Double Shuffle
15/16 : Beaten 8 lengths 2nd at 20/1. Followed up 4135
16/17 : Beaten a head at 7/2 2Fav. Followed up P512P
17/18 : Beaten 7 lengths at 7/1. Followed up 8174
 
Good stats there jono.
There are trainers who ease their horses back gently and as you have pointed out identifying them for AP punting purposes can be beneficial....
 
Right Im not convinced that Samcro is certain to go chasing, the lack of info to me suggests otherwise and ive taken the 8/1 for the race this morning with Paddy Power. Could be the shortest Antepost bet in history if they confirm chasing but as mentioned before on site, if he was mine he would have a crack at the Champion hurdle especially as it looks a pretty thin division.
 
billymag said:
Right Im not convinced that Samcro is certain to go chasing, the lack of info to me suggests otherwise and ive taken the 8/1 for the race this morning with Paddy Power. Could be the shortest Antepost bet in history if they confirm chasing but as mentioned before on site, if he was mine he would have a crack at the Champion hurdle especially as it looks a pretty thin division.
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You've worried Paddy, into 5-1..
 
billymag said:
Right Im not convinced that Samcro is certain to go chasing, the lack of info to me suggests otherwise and ive taken the 8/1 for the race this morning with Paddy Power. Could be the shortest Antepost bet in history if they confirm chasing but as mentioned before on site, if he was mine he would have a crack at the Champion hurdle especially as it looks a pretty thin division.
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Innoko said:
You've worried Paddy, into 5-1..
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What price would he be cut to if he was hurdling, 5/1 perhaps? Buveur D'air would have to be favourite still?
 
billymag said:
Right Im not convinced that Samcro is certain to go chasing, the lack of info to me suggests otherwise and ive taken the 8/1 for the race this morning with Paddy Power. Could be the shortest Antepost bet in history if they confirm chasing but as mentioned before on site, if he was mine he would have a crack at the Champion hurdle especially as it looks a pretty thin division.
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What's going on with your bets and PP price cuts, that's two in a row now (ITCF and Samcro) is it:

A) Random coincidence
B) PP hold you in such high esteem they cut all of your big Festival bets
C) You have such a following on Fat Jockey that whatever you back is backed to the hilt by your followers

:)
 
If you KNEW Samcro was going to the Champion Hurdle 8/1 is a good-ish price.

I still don't think if they came out and said that is where he's going he'd be shorter than Buveur D'air though...OR would deserve to be as close in the betting. At 7/2 BVD and 5/1 Samcro now I think you'd be bonkers to take 5/1.... when he gets delcared its an each way shot to nothing but way to far out to bother!

I will actually feel a bit disappointed if Samcro ends up going for the Champion Hurdle... I've always thought the cliche "whatever he did over hurdles is a bonus" was meant for him.

I look at Altior, do I wish he went for a Champion Hurdle? Absolutely not! I think he'd have won it, but I'd much prefer the Arkle, CC route! Altior is a superstar. Buveur D'air is just a horse :devilish:
 
I put both Samcro and IFTCFs bets on in PP shop and they were decent bets so think thats the reason they shortened both times.
 
billymag said:
Right Im not convinced that Samcro is certain to go chasing, the lack of info to me suggests otherwise and ive taken the 8/1 for the race this morning with Paddy Power. Could be the shortest Antepost bet in history if they confirm chasing but as mentioned before on site, if he was mine he would have a crack at the Champion hurdle especially as it looks a pretty thin division.
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A shrewd move going by Eddie O'Leary's comments in the Racing Post this morning Billymag fairlplay!
 
I’ve had a few quid on Samcro today for this after the comments.

If he goes elsewhere, I’d be ok with that as he’d be a banker and I’m already on any race.

If he goes here, 8/1 is a nice price to take on Buveur.

So I’m covered with this one. He’s winning whatever race he turns up in over fences whereas this is obviously a tougher task.
 
Middle_Of_March said:
I’ve had a few quid on Samcro today for this after the comments.

If he goes elsewhere, I’d be ok with that as he’d be a banker and I’m already on any race.

If he goes here, 8/1 is a nice price to take on Buveur.

So I’m covered with this one. He’s winning whatever race he turns up in over fences whereas this is obviously a tougher task.
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I am trying to convince myself 8/1 is worth a bet but keep stopping myself.

I am still more inclined to wait until the decision is made and possibly take 5/1 at that stage.

I already like If The Cap Fits for this though and think Buveur D'air is a better bet at 7/2 than Samcro is at 5/1
 
I still think he's odds on to go chasing. If they stay over hurdles then anything other than a champion hurdle win would be a disaster and a year wasted. Buveur D'air is going for a hat-trick will be tough to beat should they meet imo.

I backed Samcro for the Champion hurdle a couple of months ago but would much prefer him to go over fences.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I still think he's odds on to go chasing. If they stay over hurdles then anything other than a champion hurdle win would be a disaster and a year wasted. Buveur D'air is going for a hat-trick will be tough to beat should they meet imo.

I backed Samcro for the Champion hurdle a couple of months ago but would much prefer him to go over fences.
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Can still get 13/8 (from 7/4) with PP for his first race to be a Chase if that tempts you
 
Kevloaf said:
I am trying to convince myself 8/1 is worth a bet but keep stopping myself.

I am still more inclined to wait until the decision is made and possibly take 5/1 at that stage.

I already like If The Cap Fits for this though and think Buveur D'air is a better bet at 7/2 than Samcro is at 5/1
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I decided last year seeing you and others on here having multiple horses for races at bigger prices wasn’t the worst idea. I was too single minded with some races last year such as ITCF for the Supreme but as soon as he got injured, I was screwed.

So for this race, I’ve already backed Samcro (8/1) and If The Cap Fits (33/1 e/w). I’m still interested in Summerville Boy at a nice price but haven’t backed him so far and I’m content with him in a couple of our monthly Yankees.
 
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