Champion Hurdle 2018

[Faugheen_Machine]

I will lose my mind if Faugheen does a Sprinter, but I can find no basis in fact or logic to deduce he will do it.

Not to say he wont', but even I, who had Faugheen listed in the thank yous on the order of ceremonies at my wedding, can't find a case for him

Brilliant Robith. I bet that got a few blank looks from half the guests :highly_amused:

 

[Kevloaf]

How about a W.Mullins 1-2-3 in this? What are the odds? I really fancy Faugheen, Wicklow Brave and Melon to be ridden to orders and BD will be boxed in ,cut up, taken on at different stages and hassled out of the race . Team tactics will be the order of the day. On all known form Faugheen wins this easily. BD has only beaten MTOY by 5L . and a few GD. 2 /3 horses to date. A fit Faugheen has 8lb in hand I reckon.

BVD to complete but not be in the first 3 without being pulled up? Genuinly, what odds would you want for the Mullins 1-2-3?

MTOY beat Melon when they met... you can argue at the weights Melon would have finished slightly ahead, but BVD is clearly superior to MTOY (5L at least) and Melon is not.....

Therefore I cannot see one piece of form, ever, at any stage, that puts Melon anywhere near being ahead of Buveur D'air.

Wicklow Brave better than Melon? Perhaps...but I don't give either a strong chance of EVER beating MTOY by 5L. SO to say BVD wouldn't be in the first 3 is just impossible to back up....


You have your own rating system... so what do you rate BVD?

IF you gave Faugheen 5L for "doing it easily" .... what does BVD get for also "doing it easily".... because it is hard to argue he hasn't done everything easily in every one of his hurdle starts since switching back!

 

[Bigfish]

BVD to complete but not be in the first 3 without being pulled up? Genuinly, what odds would you want for the Mullins 1-2-3?

MTOY beat Melon when they met... you can argue at the weights Melon would have finished slightly ahead, but BVD is clearly superior to MTOY (5L at least) and Melon is not.....

Therefore I cannot see one piece of form, ever, at any stage, that puts Melon anywhere near being ahead of Buveur D'air.

Wicklow Brave better than Melon? Perhaps...but I don't give either a strong chance of EVER beating MTOY by 5L.

Hi Kevloaf, i'm really enjoying the lively debate and views of the forum and am so glad that i joined. Melon has the form to trouble Buveur Dair. he finished 3L behind Labaik in last years Supreme and he's the best work horse on the gallops at G. Elliots . They finished about 9L ahead of the field. Melons run with MTOY was a farce . He was hard held for the whole 2M of the race and never given his head. His true form if ridden out would have been 7L better IMO. Thats my conclusion.

 

[Kevloaf]

Hi Kevloaf, i'm really enjoying the lively debate and views of the forum and am so glad that i joined. Melon has the form to trouble Buveur Dair. he finished 3L behind Labaik in last years Supreme and he's the best work horse on the gallops at G. Elliots . They finished about 9L ahead of the field. Melons run with MTOY was a farce . He was hard held for the whole 2M of the race and never given his head. His true form if ridden out would have been 7L better IMO. Thats my conclusion.

Good glad to hear it.... get stuck in!

I obviously respect everyones opinion on here and no malice is intended in this.... but if you believe that Melon being beaten by 3L by Labaik in the Supreme is Champion Hurdle winning form because Labaik is a good work horse then we are on different planets.

There are loads of reasons for that, for one... what is Labaik working with that is good enough to beat BVD? EVEN if there is one, there is no actual proof of that being true.

I'll leave that point... and move on to the Melon race - I did think Melon was worth more than that run and will have posted on here at the time... however, he then was brushed aside in the Irish Champion Hurdle...and I now can't forgive either run?

 

[SeanRock]

Hi Kevloaf, i'm really enjoying the lively debate and views of the forum and am so glad that i joined. Melon has the form to trouble Buveur Dair. he finished 3L behind Labaik in last years Supreme and he's the best work horse on the gallops at G. Elliots . They finished about 9L ahead of the field. Melons run with MTOY was a farce . He was hard held for the whole 2M of the race and never given his head. His true form if ridden out would have been 7L better IMO. Thats my conclusion.

Melon hasn’t the guts to win around Cheltenham imo. He’s a good traveler but he finds little off the bridle.

 

[robith]

Brilliant Robith. I bet that got a few blank looks from half the guests :highly_amused:

Haha, yes went under the radar compared to the note on the menu that said "Dinner is sponsored by Ruby Walsh and WP Mullins". Got an in law who still thinks I know them and they actually paid for dinner, rather than metaphorically

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Yorkhill 60/40 to go for Champion Hurdle!

 

[Kevloaf]

Yorkhill 60/40 to go for Champion Hurdle!

Did he say what the 40 was?

I'd take that as a knock to Faugheens chances OR a positive for Douvan Min and UDS.

Haha

 

[Al Ferof]

Did he say what the 40 was?

I'd take that as a knock to Faugheens chances OR a positive for Douvan Min and UDS.

Haha

60/40 in Willie Mullins terms gives me no certainty whatsoever!


Yorkhill would be a really interesting runner on his 2016 form, but questions to answer on this years running.

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

Depending which Yorkhill turns up, the nutjob or the wonder horse, I think this could put the cat among the pigeons, also depends who rides, Ruby or David Mullins he's a serious player, Townend and I wouldn't back him with monopoly money

 

[Scooby91]

Did he say what the 40 was?

I'd take that as a knock to Faugheens chances OR a positive for Douvan Min and UDS.

Haha

You've probably seen by now but
Ryanair.

 

[Kevloaf]

I've got Yorkhill backed at 20/1 - I hope he does run so I can lay him off and get my stake back!

 

[Kevloaf]

You've probably seen by now but
Ryanair.

Only just got home actually mate... so not quite yet. Information overload at the moment. I'm thinking about Jamie Codd, Coo Star Sivola and Willie Mullins bingo all at once

 

[Bigfish]

Faugheen ,Yorkhill, Wicklow Brave and Melon . At this rate WM will have nearly half the field of runners!! 1_2_3_4 ?

 

[Folski]

Faugheen ,Yorkhill, Wicklow Brave and Melon . At this rate WM will have nearly half the field of runners!! 1_2_3_4 ?

That's why I think Yorkhill will go Ryanair

 

[Jonnymac05]

I may be overthinking this race and gone doo-lally but is it a coincidence that Melons worst performance to date happens to be the same day that he wore the hood for the 1st time.
If that run is disregarded because of that then i can see him in the Top 3 and at 14/1 is a very nice each way angle. definatley better price than BVD. 2/1 place better than a 1/2 win for BVD imho. with the chance to beat BVD.

You may roast me now for my crazy thought process

 

[Bigfish]

I may be overthinking this race and gone doo-lally but is it a coincidence that Melons worst performance to date happens to be the same day that he wore the hood for the 1st time.
If that run is disregarded because of that then i can see him in the Top 3 and at 14/1 is a very nice each way angle. definatley better price than BVD. 2/1 place better than a 1/2 win for BVD imho. with the chance to beat BVD.

You may roast me now for my crazy thought process

Your not wrong Jonnymac05 and thats why WM said of Melon that the hood will be left off when talking about his Champion Hurdle 'team'. I wish you luck.

 

[Tenty]

There looks to be 13/2 available on Tent without BD thru the oddschecker website with 365 if interested.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

There looks to be 13/2 available on Tent without BD thru the oddschecker website with 365 if interested.

I'm really surprised so much noise is being made for MTOY if I am perfectly honestly, and I don't just mean on here, I've seen a bit for him on social media too. I was all over him on the Champion Hurdle thread in 2017 and indeed backed him 8pts e/way @ 50/1 with StanJames, this basically saved a bit of what turned out to be a poor festival overall for me last season, however this season, another year older, and much shorter in price this season, I struggle to now back him, despite my love for the horse.

I think Faugheen will finish ahead of him and indeed Buveur D'air & Faugheen will take 1st and 2nd spot, and then to be honest the race is then wide open for just one place IMO.

I can honestly see Melon overturning the form with MTOY, IF Yorkhill goes for this race I think that will be it for the places anyway, BD, Faugheen & Yorkhill, although potentially a in form Yorkhill would have every chance of winning the race too.

There are other runners who would be plenty more progressive than MTOY for me this year too, unlike last year when, without Faugheen I viewed the race as plenty weak enough.

 

[Kevloaf]

There looks to be 13/2 available on Tent without BD thru the oddschecker website with 365 if interested.

3/1 is the real price.

Old price shown on oddschecker tenty, unfortunately.