Cilaos Emery is a G1 winning 2 mile hurdler at least, unlike TNO. Admittedly, TNO and CE both beat Melon 1 length so we already have a collateral form-line, no need to imagine things.
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Champion Hurdle 2018
- Thread starter Kevloaf
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That G1 isn't a true result though IMO. The supreme winner all but refused and the race was won by the stables 3rd string as he out stayed Melon who was only having his 3rd ever run.
A little bit like next season something coming up against Whiskey Sour and getting carried away about that because it won a G1 (although obviously not as extreme).
How close do you realistically think CE can get to make it a worthwhile race?
Ok, so your opinion is that beating the 2nd in the Supreme(Melon) and the G1 Aintree novice winner(Pingshou) is not a true result.. I disagree with that because well.. it happened, we can verify its true and there were no excuses for either, CE was just pushed along much earlier but he got the task done well in the end.
Secondly, you ask how much closer can CE get to make it worthwhile? Well, it doesn't really matter. For me the race at Kempton with Buv was much more unsatisfactory because it was falsely run and a horse like Mohaayed who's a handicapper and much more inferior horse than any of tomorrow's F adversaries, got within 6 lengths of Buv. I mean talk about bad G1s it can't get much worse than that, probably some of Hurricane Fly's G1s in Ireland couple of years ago against similar low caliber of horses. I didn't see anyone complain about that pre or post race, rather the opposite as he was smashed again in the AP market.
But tomorrow Faugheen faces one of the best novice hurdler of the last season, completely unexposed at the trip he could prove to be much better than its 153 current novice rating and people are dismissing the race like its a walkover. Its not. Of course everyone expects Faugheen to win, but if he gets well at the festival they'll also expect him to win there and it'll also not be a walkover.
Secondly, you ask how much closer can CE get to make it worthwhile? Well, it doesn't really matter. For me the race at Kempton with Buv was much more unsatisfactory because it was falsely run and a horse like Mohaayed who's a handicapper and much more inferior horse than any of tomorrow's F adversaries, got within 6 lengths of Buv. I mean talk about bad G1s it can't get much worse than that, probably some of Hurricane Fly's G1s in Ireland couple of years ago against similar low caliber of horses. I didn't see anyone complain about that pre or post race, rather the opposite as he was smashed again in the AP market.
But tomorrow Faugheen faces one of the best novice hurdler of the last season, completely unexposed at the trip he could prove to be much better than its 153 current novice rating and people are dismissing the race like its a walkover. Its not. Of course everyone expects Faugheen to win, but if he gets well at the festival they'll also expect him to win there and it'll also not be a walkover.
Interesting, for me, I think if Melon and Cilaos Emery met again, Melon would win every time bar a fall.
Pingshou and Melon took each other on from a long, long way out in that race, well before the final bend and its a long home straight too...and Cilaos Emery stayed on past the two that'd cut their own throats. Also, I think it is fair to give the race less credit when the fav (supreme winner) doesn't start the race, I wouldn't give as much merit as to it being a G1 as I would if he'd beaten Labaik fair and square.
I'd also not go overboard about Pingshou. He beat Mount Mews for his grade 1 at Aintree by a few lengths, who this season been beaten off a mark of 145 a couple of times. You can say then that CE might well be worth his 153.... but if he is, or even if you bump him up - Faugheen has a stone in hand on any of his last 6 runs.
Buv's grade 1 was a bad race, because there aren't enough good horses in the division. Im not having a go at either horse, they can't help being better...
Faugheen tomorrow has over a stone in hand against his stable mate... I would love to know if they work the two horses together :highly_amused: I suppose tomorrow they will be and will pick up prize money for it.
Even if CE was the best novice hurdler last season (which he wasn't), it wasn't a good crop of novice hurdlers so I think you're clutching at straws to say it isn't a walkover.
I think people expect a win tomorrow, and so they should. I don't think people should expect Faugheen to beat BVD, as BVD is clearly superior to CE
You could well be right that Melon would beat CE, but so far Mullins has sent Melon for two G2s in open company while CE in two G1s. I'd rather stick with the trainer in his opinions of the 2 horses and by the race choices he thinks CE is clearly a G1 animal while Melon G2. Actually its not only his opinion, CE is already a G1 winner while Melon is not.
Also your interpretation of that Herald Champion novice is as valid as anyones. I choose to believe the two stole couple of lengths from CE and he did well to recover them in the end proving he's the superior horse to both.
Buv was a bad race not because there aren't enough good horses, TNO is a mighty one(as well as plenty other high class 2 mile hurdlers around) however as I said the race was a farce in terms of pace which made a handicapper come 6 lengths from a G1 performer. You rarely see that in a Faugheen race, unless the jockey wants to get beat. So tomorrow its bound to be a solid performance from a champion and a novice champion, what more can you wish for?
As for expecting to beat BD, if Faugheen arrives at Cheltenham and goes off as favourite then we can say people will expect him to win the race as they do for any favourite, the hint is in the description.
Also your interpretation of that Herald Champion novice is as valid as anyones. I choose to believe the two stole couple of lengths from CE and he did well to recover them in the end proving he's the superior horse to both.
Buv was a bad race not because there aren't enough good horses, TNO is a mighty one(as well as plenty other high class 2 mile hurdlers around) however as I said the race was a farce in terms of pace which made a handicapper come 6 lengths from a G1 performer. You rarely see that in a Faugheen race, unless the jockey wants to get beat. So tomorrow its bound to be a solid performance from a champion and a novice champion, what more can you wish for?
As for expecting to beat BD, if Faugheen arrives at Cheltenham and goes off as favourite then we can say people will expect him to win the race as they do for any favourite, the hint is in the description.
Cilaos emery is fairly exposed he's ran twice against Mick jazz
“I'd imagine Davy Russell and Ruby just took each other on and went too fast down the back,” said Mullins afterwards.
“As much as Ruby thought he should let Davy on, if he had let him on and he beat him he would have kicked himself, so he had to go with him.
“Davy Russell obviously thought he had more stamina than he did, so the two of them cracked and then*David Mullins*was able to settle in behind them and come with a wet sail.
“I'm disappointed for*Melon*but Ruby couldn't do much more and had to go with the other horse.
“It's still only his third run over hurdles. He was beaten fair and square in Cheltenham but it was only his second run over hurdles.
“Today it looked like the two in front cut each others throats. He missed the third last which would have left a bit more in the tank. I think there is still plenty improvement in him.
“We decided to ride*Cilaos Emery*a little different today and waited more. He deserved it. He's a horse that has disappointed on his last couple of runs.
“He has a Grade One now and it's fantastic for Luke, who is a great supporter of the yard. He gets his day and we're delighted for him.”
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doctorwu
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I don't think your reasoning is that strange. CE is a very good horse, cruising until the last in the Apples Jade race over 2.4m. Lost a shoe when 5th in the Supreme. The way things have gone at this meeting anything could happen. If he goes double figures I might have a nibble for fun.
You think Cilaos Emery is exposed? Do you understand the concept at all? He's a 5yo with 2 runs over 2 miles at the top level, winning one of them. Thats how top class horses begin, they don't appear by magic, they improve, they get experience and continue to collect G1s on the way if they lucky enough not to go against Faugheen. Not saying CE is a top class already but he could be based on his novice days. Do you think Buv would be a defending champion if Faugheen wasn't out with injury? Do you think if Faugheen would've gone Kempton and destroyed all the anticipation, people would say the CH is a walkover if Faugheen gets there, like it was in 2016 when he was made 1/4 after the Irish Champion?
Its never a walkoever when there are quality horses in opposition, I think Ruby learned this the hard way in 2015 when he pulverized NC on the gallops 4 days before the Morgiana and then on race day he gave him a soft lead and when sprinting for home he couldn't catch him. He underestimated NC, who was like CE a G1 winning novice hurdler and continued to win plenty of G1s from there on.
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You might be right that at the start of the season Melon was viewed with more potential by the connections. However I showed how CE was aimed at G1s and Melon at G2s in open company. How he beat Melon in a race where he had to overcome his jockey giving away several lengths and in the toughest part of the race when they accelerated he had to make them back and did so workmanlike but was going away at the end. I think we have a v. good novice hurdler, underestimated as per usual people saying he's exposed as a 5yo and 4 total races, of which a G1 win while they say Melon will potentially improve into CH picture after as many races but more failures to his name..
Have you actually backed Cilaos Emery for the champion hurdle? If you're right he's value at 66/1 compared to Melon at 16/1?
I don't see it myself.
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Garrison Savannah
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I wouldn't be inclined to back either at those prices unless I was the type that likes gambling on others not making it to the festival.
Cilaos emery is a 150- 155 horse.
Buveur dair faugheen are clear
Mtoy, melon, cilaos emery, Elgin.... are fighting it out for minor honours if the top 2 make it.
If cilaos finished clear of the rest and gets within 8 lengths of faugheen. I may take a punt ew on him for the champion hurdle at 66/1. But hes not suddenly going to become a 170 horse overnight by being in and around Mick jazz.
Faugheen_Machine
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Agreed. On all known form CE has plenty to find with BD and Faugheen. It wouldn't surprise me if he lined up in the Coral Cup in March.
Same is true for Melon, however both are bound to improve if you consider they only had couple of starts. How can you say a 5yo is categorically a 155 hurdler without waiting couple of seasons before drawing that conclusion ?
We are talking about this year's CH I would assume. I can't see any way in which cilaos emery can get to a 170 rated hurdler in the next few months. What he does in the future over fences makes no difference to this season.
archie
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As I was standing on the Closutton gallops listening to Willie say how highly they rated Melon, I think I might be right too!
The graded races argument shows that you don't know how the yard operates. It's all about timing and they run when they're telling Willie that they're ready. The fact that Cilaos Emery ran over 2m4f is far more significant than it being a G1. It simply means that it was the right time.
Melon is officially rated 159 and Cilaos Emery 153. The RPR difference is similar so it would seem that you're the odd one out here. Nothing wrong with that but you might want to adopt a more reasonable tone.
no, we're talking about G1 novices hurdlers coming in open company of which ceiling in terms of ability is far from established. Some go on to better things, even become top dogs in their division, but you never know until at least 1-2 season pass and the handicappers grasp their ability and then you can say CE is certainly a 155 hurdler over 2 miles.