• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Champion Hurdle 2018

Faugheen is back , well id want to see him in action first. Risk with that , you just know his current odds would evaporate quicker than Rooneys waistline.

Melon could be of interest , listening to the vibes he looks like he grown and matured.

The one for me at this very early stage is Defi , looked potentially a little special last year , with normal amount of improvement from 4 to 5 year old he could make the jump. Also why would McManus keep him to hurdles when he already got the champion hurdler , it just doesnt make sense ,its not like he needs the money. I can only assume its because they think Defi is better.
 
I'm waiting for the day before the Morgiana or whichever race Faugheen gets declared for before I pull the trigger antepost. I think many of us have built a decent position about Buv and theres only one horse imo who could beat him - Faugheen. I just cant part with cash on him until we know for certain hes good to go. I don't see him getting declared for any race either unless they know hes ready to go ability as well as fitness wise. They wont get him to lineup if they know hes showing nothing at home. He can get beat for fitness first time out, like against Nichols a couple of years back but i'd expect to see a decent showing.
 
The Beast said:
The one for me at this very early stage is Defi , looked potentially a little special last year , with normal amount of improvement from 4 to 5 year old he could make the jump. Also why would McManus keep him to hurdles when he already got the champion hurdler , it just doesnt make sense ,its not like he needs the money. I can only assume its because they think Defi is better.
Click to expand...

Defi is still a young horse coming from the juvenile ranks. A year of hurdling while he strengthens up would do no harm imo. Nothing to lose by having a crack at the champion hurdle and if hes not up to it then go chasing next season at the usual age horses go chasing. Its the horses coming out of the supreme/Neptune who spend an extra year hurdling after that that I look down on more for their chances when it comes to chasing. Horses like Yanworth.
 
KingSprinterSacre said:
I'm waiting for the day before the Morgiana or whichever race Faugheen gets declared for before I pull the trigger antepost. I think many of us have built a decent position about Buv and theres only one horse imo who could beat him - Faugheen. I just cant part with cash on him until we know for certain hes good to go. I don't see him getting declared for any race either unless they know hes ready to go ability as well as fitness wise. They wont get him to lineup if they know hes showing nothing at home. He can get beat for fitness first time out, like against Nichols a couple of years back but i'd expect to see a decent showing.
Click to expand...

I agree with every word of that. I am making sure I don't have anything on. IF Faugheen is still in the running, when NRNB comes around, I will have to re-adjust my position and a lot of the BvD multiples will not be looking as good as I think they do now.... BUT, I have lost enough on Faugheen since 2015 to make the same mistake for a third time!!!

KingSprinterSacre said:
Defi is still a young horse coming from the juvenile ranks. A year of hurdling while he strengthens up would do no harm imo. Nothing to lose by having a crack at the champion hurdle and if hes not up to it then go chasing next season at the usual age horses go chasing. Its the horses coming out of the supreme/Neptune who spend an extra year hurdling after that that I look down on more for their chances when it comes to chasing. Horses like Yanworth.
Click to expand...

I think DDS deserves respect on his Cheltenham record alone, but the price is too short for me to even think about backing him. I am also a little wary he won't have as much improvement between 4 and 5 as many people think... he had such a busy campaign that it strikes me that he was very forward for his age, and others MAY catch up this year... and if that was the case I'd want a much bigger price than 8/1
 
For me, despite splitting my win stakes between BD & Faugheen, I feel the most overpriced horse in the market currently is Arctic Fire. Currently a 33/1 shot, his form at Cheltenham reads 2-2-1, his first run at Cheltenham was a 2nd, which given the nature of the course you could easily excuse a poor run, but it wasn't, it ended up being only 1/2 length defeat. His second run at the track, again another 2nd but this time it was to Faugheen (and also finished 5 lengths ahead of Hurricane Fly (legend)), enough said really, although he is the closest finisher of any rival to Faugheen in his career, bar that one 'odd' loss. His last run, we probably can all remember clearly, taking the County Hurdle off top weight, something you have to go back to the early 60's for to find the last horse that done that, incredible, and thoroughly deserved win at the festival for Arctic Fire.

All in all, his Cheltenham form is better than many, extremely solid looking and warrants plenty of respect. 33/1 is massively overpricing him, given that the market is likely to fall apart like it normally does for this race. As with MTOY this year, Arctic Fire will be my longshot play until the price heads below 20/1.
 
Given that there's only been one 5yo winner in over 30 years (and that one was having his 29th race), I can quite easily forego a single figure price for DDS at this stage.

Bunk Off Early is back in the yard after a successful operation for the problem that was maybe the cause of his disappointing runs at Cheltenham and Punchestown. Hopefully out towards the end of the year.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
For me, despite splitting my win stakes between BD & Faugheen, I feel the most overpriced horse in the market currently is Arctic Fire. Currently a 33/1 shot, his form at Cheltenham reads 2-2-1, his first run at Cheltenham was a 2nd, which given the nature of the course you could easily excuse a poor run, but it wasn't, it ended up being only 1/2 length defeat. His second run at the track, again another 2nd but this time it was to Faugheen (and also finished 5 lengths ahead of Hurricane Fly (legend)), enough said really, although he is the closest finisher of any rival to Faugheen in his career, bar that one 'odd' loss. His last run, we probably can all remember clearly, taking the County Hurdle off top weight, something you have to go back to the early 60's for to find the last horse that done that, incredible, and thoroughly deserved win at the festival for Arctic Fire.

All in all, his Cheltenham form is better than many, extremely solid looking and warrants plenty of respect. 33/1 is massively overpricing him, given that the market is likely to fall apart like it normally does for this race. As with MTOY this year, Arctic Fire will be my longshot play until the price heads below 20/1.
Click to expand...

Agreed COD
Whilst I have been chipping away at BVD, I have also backed Arctic Fire at 33's a few weeks back.
Not only did he win the County off top weight, but that was his first run of the season.

Given a full and uninterrupted prep - there are much worse bets out there...
 
Leman14 said:
Agreed COD
Whilst I have been chipping away at BVD, I have also backed Arctic Fire at 33's a few weeks back.
Not only did he win the County off top weight, but that was his first run of the season.

Given a full and uninterrupted prep - there are much worse bets out there...
Click to expand...

Sorry Leman, I've literally just this second read your original post on page one of this thread, I could have basically quoted that and agreed rather than wrote the long winded explanation above haha!

Glad I'm not alone with AF though :)
 
:highly_amused:
No problem - most of my posts are probably "agreeing" with posts made pages beforehand without realising!
Easy to get lost amongst the excellent volume of posts :encouragement:
 
So when speaking to Mark Howard in August, Graham Wylie states Yorkhill is a better hurdler than a chaser, though it's still not certain on hurdles or fences yet.

Personally (not that my opinion has any weight behind it compared to Mr Wylie and co) is he would be best over fences. Following the brief mention of Yorkhill in the Gold Cup chat with the Ruby Walsh article Kev put up I had hoped and actually expected for GW to come out and say he hopes he can still be a Gold Cup horse.

I imagine the yard will wait and see come the Morgiana to decide on both horses targets. If Faugheen is fit, well and healthy and has a good comeback run then I just cannot see how they keep Yorkhill over hurdles. There's no middle distance hurdle race at the festival to split them up. Douvan, Faugheen and Yorkhill are THE 3 stable stars. No chance Ruby will bypass riding one of them imo.

If Faugheen has a setback though, then I think they put Yorkhill into the mix (though being right handed the Morgiana would'nt be ideal for him) and they really then have to start thinking aside of Faugheen and see him as a bonus. There's an easy way for them to avoid eachother in the build up to the festival with Faugheen going to Kempton and Yorkhill running in the 2 Leopardstown races. But again the idea that they'll both lineup for the CH come March is impossible for him to envisage.

Ruby is confident on Faugheen as you expect him to be though I still cannot put a single penny on Faugheen right now and echo most on here where although you take the reduced price you just have to wait and see him race again. I may have a bet just before his comeback run or in running for the CH but that's the earliest i'd side with regardless of how much positivity there is. I'm pretty sure Ruby came out in an RUK interview last year saying how well he looked only a day later for him to be ruled out injured?!

Saying that it does make me hold off investing anymore on Buveur D'Air! Though I still think he will have a big chance against Faugheen/Yorkhill in March, having 8pts on him winning and circa 14pts in multiples Is more than enough now and if one or both of the Mullins horses do line up against him his task becomes much harder.
 
If you HAD to place a bet, at 8/1 - would you want it on Defi Du Seuil or Faugheen.

As a straight "match up" between those two I am finding it very difficult to know what I would do!
 
I'd be all over Faugheen in a match with DDS so would prefer to back him out of those two.
 
I asked as I just watched Faugheen's last run (as I am sad and spend my Sunday's doing similar things :highly_amused:) but then watched DDS in the Triumph and think I have under-estimated/forgotten just how easily he did it.

With the two being the same price, and me having previously said I think DDS is a poor price as he may not improve as much as people expect, I wondered whether that makes Faugheen a good price. I think potential that he doesn't retain the ability and the potential he won't run out-weight that as being a good price either at this stage...

Faugheen would be quite long odds on in a match, so is 8/1 value for Faugheen, OR is DDS terrible value at 8s?
 
At 8/1 right now...Defi du Seuil

On the day i'd back 100% back Faugheen over Defi du Seuil in a match though.
 
Nicky has said that the fighting fifth might be a target for Buveur D'air. If he goes there I might make the journey across.
 
Faugheen all day long , if he gets to race he will be very short. If he didnt , I could see Defi no smaller than 3/1F
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Nicky has said that the fighting fifth might be a target for Buveur D'air. If he goes there I might make the journey across.
Click to expand...

On AMERICAN day at Newbury? :p


I wonder when DDS will take on a serious rival? You think he'll turn up on boxing day? Will BVD avoid the machine (Or vice versa) ....
 
Wouldn't it be great if Faugheen took on either Buveur D'air of DDS at Kempton. That'd clear the waters slightly, ahead of the festival.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Wouldn't it be great if Faugheen took on either Buveur D'air of DDS at Kempton. That'd clear the waters slightly, ahead of the festival.
Click to expand...

I'd just be happy if Faugheen made it to Cheltenham in one piece tbh, bring back the best, then we have a real Champion Hurdle race!

I don't think RR & WPM would have taken the defeats of many of their horses (more so RR than WPM) lightly, and feel we may see a few of his go in again next year. Hoping Faugheen wins well then gets a deserved retirement if I am honest. We have had a couple of 9 year olds in recent times but not since the early 1980's have we seen a 10 year old win a Champion Hurdle, it would be a monumental achievement if he could!
 
Also, I have well and truly got stuck in to this race now, BD, Faugheen & Arctic Fire (trade only) have all seen some of my money, but just wondering where you guys stand on Melon, is he actually good enough to win this at the first time of asking against some more race toughened opponents?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom