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Champion Chase 2018

Just spotted that BetWay have this market and he is indeed 20/1! 1/5 odds, 3 places.
 
Viking Flagship said:
Just spotted that BetWay have this market and he is indeed 20/1! 1/5 odds, 3 places.
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That'd be effectively 6/4 the place...

Would you back Ordinary World at 6/4 to come in the top 4? I probably wouldn't....
 
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How do you mean Kev? Are you working on the basis that OW can’t possibly finish 2nd? If that’s where you stand then it’s probably not a bet for you! I just don’t think it’s such a foregone conclusion that Altior and Min are 1st and 2nd.
 
FM - do we go in again?

God's Own gave it away by making a mistake in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last year and he will be back for another crack. He's in great form and pleasing me.
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50/1 with Boyle :p
 
Viking Flagship said:
How do you mean Kev? Are you working on the basis that OW can’t possibly finish 2nd? If that’s where you stand then it’s probably not a bet for you! I just don’t think it’s such a foregone conclusion that Altior and Min are 1st and 2nd.
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The "real" place value for me 6/4 is... (£20 as an example)

£40 staked in total (£20 e/w) 20/1
1/5 the odds mean the place is 4/1 (if OW places its £20 at 4/1 so return £100)

Total is £40 stake and £100 return
That is 6/4.


I do not give OW any chance of winning, so for me, its 6/4 to place. I wouldn't lump on that.... I'd prefer the e/w bet than the place only because there is always a CHANCE he'd win... but I consider the "true" place value before I make any bets where I think the head of the market is strong.

Hope that makes sense :encouragement:
 
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Kevloaf said:
The "real" place value for me 6/4 is... (£20 as an example)

£40 staked in total (£20 e/w) 20/1
1/5 the odds mean the place is 4/1 (if OW places its £20 at 4/1 so return £100)

Total is £40 stake and £100 return
That is 6/4.


I do not give OW any chance of winning, so for me, its 6/4 to place. I wouldn't lump on that.... I'd prefer the e/w bet than the place only because there is always a CHANCE he'd win... but I consider the "true" place value before I make any bets where I think the head of the market is strong.

Hope that makes sense :encouragement:
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Yep all makes sense Kev - except we were talking about the W/O market - so 2nd to Altior would constitute a win. I’d be of the opinion that 2nd to Altior is not beyond the realms of possibility for OW which means the win element of the bet is alive. This is not a bet I’ve placed at this stage but it has merited some consideration in a race in which I don’t really have a position as I feel most of the principles have lacked any sort of value for months.
 
You could boost it to 2/1 if you put it on with a bookie going 1/4 the odds too!
 
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Cashew King said:
It’s 2/1 - you’d get 20 quid stake back too!

£40 staked - £120 return, so £80 profit - viewed against your stake your profit would be like having a 2/1 winner - don’t know if that’s enough to tempt you?

You could boost it to 5/2 if you put it on with a bookie going 1/4 the odds too!
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That 100 is correct including stake back. as is 6/4.
Back your own judgement :)
But imo no chance he's 2nd. And youd be hoping to scrape 4th for 6/4
 
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Douvan better than 50/50 to make Champion Chase according to Willie.
 
I hear Great Field has been ruled out? Any confirmation?
 
Love this quote:

Mullins: Min is unbeaten this year, I think he’s unbeaten anyway, and goes for the same race, the Champion Chase.
 
I still can’t quite believe that both Min and Douvan would race against each other if fit and firing in the days before cheltenham. I’d like to hear Ricci’s comments on that rather than Willie’s. Patrick Mullins said today that he would think it would be hard for Min to turn around the Supreme form with Altior, if they’re thinking like that then they’d surely send Min Ryanair
 
Robbante said:
I still can’t quite believe that both Min and Douvan would race against each other if fit and firing in the days before cheltenham.
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Completely agree, I'll be nothing short of shocked should they both line up here...
 
Istabraq said:
Completely agree, I'll be nothing short of shocked should they both line up here...
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A bit of a move on oddschecker for min in the Ryanair even though mullins say he goes qmcc.
 
I did see someone saying about doubling them up. Yorkhill and Faugheen champ hurdle, Un De sceaux and djakadam Ryanair, min and Douvan champ chase, total recall and killultagh vic gold cup. That made a little bit of sense, if Ricci is happy with Djakadam in the Ryanair then maybe he’ll throw both min and Douvan at Altior
 
Robbante said:
I did see someone saying about doubling them up. Yorkhill and Faugheen champ hurdle, Un De sceaux and djakadam Ryanair, min and Douvan champ chase, total recall and killultagh vic gold cup. That made a little bit of sense, if Ricci is happy with Djakadam in the Ryanair then maybe he’ll throw both min and Douvan at Altior
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I think min will go qmcc. But i hope he goes Ryanair.
 
The most staggering quote I've heard so far is that Mullins thinks Ruby would sit on Min if they took each other on as "the form horse".

Not, a, CHANCE of Douvan running in the CC with Ruby on another horse IMO.

If that gets proven to be incorrect I'll have to lower my Douvan estimations to being at the same level as Djakadam, rather than Vautour.
 
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