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Champion Chase 2018

Robbante said:
Mullins would want it to work out like that I’m sure, Ricci bound to want a chance of winning both races?
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Yeah I suppose so. Would like to be a fly on the wall for that little conversation!
 
Middle_Of_March said:
The official ratings and the RPR are a load of nonsense if they think there’s that little between Altior and Min. Altior is far superior to anything that will line up in the CC - assuming Douvan doesn’t run.

I think Altior would beat Douvan tbh but Min... he will beat Min on the bridle
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Ratings for chaser in their novice year, or shortly into their second season chasing, are generally wrong on the top horses because they haven't yet had the opportunity to prove themselves.

The yardstick in DBUKs message was Douvan, I'd be interested to know what Douvans speed rating was at the same stage of his career because he was rated 161 after his Arkle win and 169 after his Punchestown win and he was generally regarded as a superstar at this time last year....
 
Patrick Mullins on the RP podcast had no doubt that if Douvan turned up he'd be the number 1.

If i fancied Min I couldn't dream of leaving Douvan unbacked at 9/2 NRNB when it's blindly obvious he's a better horse AND a bigger price.
 
I dont think this will format very well but its worth a try

HORSE NAME SPEED RATING COURSE RPR RATING RESULT

Politologue 69 Kempton 170 1
Politologue 74 Sandown 170 1
Politologue 75 Exeter 167 1
Politologue - Aintree 160 F
Politologue 51 Cheltenha 154 4
Politologue 31 Kempton 148 1
Politologue 56 Haydock 158 2
Politologue 67 Ascot 153 1

Altior 74 Sandown 177 1
Altior 72 Cheltenha 168 1
Altior 74 Newbury 175 1
Altior 69 Kempton 167 1
Altior 69 Sandown 169 1
Altior 79 Kempton 160 1

Min 81 Leopardstown 176 1
Min 72 Leopardstown 162 1/2
Min 80 Gowran Park 165 1
Min 79 Leopardstown 160 1
Min 70 Navan 147 1

Douvan 70 Punchestown 170 1
Douvan 69 Leopardstown 178 1
Douvan 78 Cork 178 1
Douvan 71 Punchestown 171 1
Douvan 88 Aintree 176 1
Douvan 80 Cheltenham 165 1
Douvan 76 Leopardstown 161 1
Douvan 82 Leopardstown 170 1
 
Are these Andy Holding speed figures? I know he's tipped Min on oddschecker too. I assume you subscribe DBUK?
 
I love seeing/hearing different views and opinions but I’m not too familiar with Holdings methods but just looking at the figures you post I find it strange he would give Politilogue a higher speed rating for his Exeter run than Altior for his Sandown performance.
Is there a view he’s beating up on sub standard opposition ?
Ultimately he’s demolished the hottest Supreme field since Champagne Fevers win and won an Arkle by considerable daylight, what makes this game so intriguing is how we all see races/horses differently and what makes it so much fun to debate, but until he regresses I’m of the view Altior is a very special horse and can be talked about in the same league as Remittance Man, Sprinter Sacre, Moscow Flyer and Master Minded should he win in 4 weeks
 
They certainly are mate yes, im a big AH fan and I find his figures very reliable, changed my punting life. I dont always agree with Andy though, he has said he believes Min to be better than Douvan .. I dont see that quite yet but we will see.

I compiled that list by going through old downloads of his figures and dropped him an email; (and updated it since).. I asked his opinion on my thoughts to the effect of I couldnt see many turning up with many listed in the market having other targets, potentially a 6 horse race with question marks over Douvan, Min available to back at Each Way prices with Antepost terms of 3 places, my view was he only needed to beat 3 of them home with very realistic win prospects too. He responded with a little wink and said watch out of my piece on odds checker in the next couple of weeks.
 
Istabraq said:
I love seeing/hearing different views and opinions but I’m not too familiar with Holdings methods but just looking at the figures you post I find it strange he would give Politilogue a higher speed rating for his Exeter run than Altior for his Sandown performance.
Is there a view he’s beating up on sub standard opposition ?
Ultimately he’s demolished the hottest Supreme field since Champagne Fevers win and won an Arkle by considerable daylight, what makes this game so intriguing is how we all see races/horses differently and what makes it so much fun to debate, but until he regresses I’m of the view Altior is a very special horse and can be talked about in the same league as Remittance Man, Sprinter Sacre, Moscow Flyer and Master Minded should he win in 4 weeks
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Yes, at the beginning of last season I had the view Min could reverse the form over fences, but since then I've seen nothing to suggest anything in the division can beat him as long as he's upright
 
Douvan entered on Sat in the Red Mills. He must be starting to please them. Would love if he ran this weekend but would doubt it
 
KingSprinterSacre said:
Douvan entered on Sat in the Red Mills. He must be starting to please them. Would love if he ran this weekend but would doubt it
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Unexpected to say the least! I would say it's doubtful just because the time scales were so tight for even getting him to Cheltenham. My last post in here said how I thought they would be discouraged to bring him back after Altiors last run but the comments in this suggest I was talking nonsense! That said I think it would be very hard to pitch him first time out in the Champion Chase against Altior so if they could somehow get a run out with him beforehand...
 
jono said:
Unexpected to say the least! I would say it's doubtful just because the time scales were so tight for even getting him to Cheltenham. My last post in here said how I thought they would be discouraged to bring him back after Altiors last run but the comments in this suggest I was talking nonsense! That said I think it would be very hard to pitch him first time out in the Champion Chase against Altior so if they could somehow get a run out with him beforehand...
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Would be very surprised if he ran. Mullins hasn't ruled it out, the weather in Ireland has been brutal the last few days. Bad ground and 2.5miles can't see it myself. Is there any other Grade 2 opportunity for him between now and the festival. Newlands Chase (G2 at Naas) is the only one I can see. It takes place on 25th of February which leaves just 17 days till the QMCC.
 
The Willie Mullins-trained eight-year-old was one of ten entries for the Grade 2 Red Mills Chase unveiled on Tuesday, and Mullins reported: "I decided to enter Douvan for Saturday but I'll wait a couple of days before deciding if he'll run. We're very happy with the way he's been working."
 
Anyone else think Mullins and Rocco have been pulling a fast one with Douvan all along? :devilish:

IF...and it is still an IF...Douvan runs in the Champion Chase, what happens to Min?

OR...is Douvan the Willie Ryanair horse?
 
Al Ferof said:
Anyone else think Mullins and Rocco have been pulling a fast one with Douvan all along? :devilish:

IF...and it is still an IF...Douvan runs in the Champion Chase, what happens to Min?

OR...is Douvan the Willie Ryanair horse?
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Them 2? Never.

It's not as if they have a history of horses ending up in the Ryanair at the last minute.....
 
No matter where Douvan ends up he will have my money behind him.

Incredible how everyone acts like he straight up lost - ignoring a pretty big injury - and acts like the last 3 years of dominance haven’t been a thing.
 
Hurricane fly said:
No matter where Douvan ends up he will have my money behind him.

Incredible how everyone acts like he straight up lost - ignoring a pretty big injury - and acts like the last 3 years of dominance haven’t been a thing.
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.... really?

Sprinter Sacre was far more dominate than Douvan but it took Sprinter a full season finishing Special Tiara and Dodging Bullets before he came back to winning races
What makes you think mullins has Douvan back to working order? He’s been off a year and missed his initial come back day

Faugheen pretty much in a similar position - appreciate Douvan is younger and some may say he has a more realistic chance of coming back on a mark closer to his best. But still, that’s a big ask

Asking s horse to come back from a fairly significant injury, run once 3 weeks prior to the festival and then rock up to win it - hmmmmmm

Altior wasn’t off as long as Douvan, and his recovery wasn’t dogged by complications. Even so, I expect Altior to run 3-4lbs below his best. I’d expect douvan to be even further back

He has a lot to prove! Despite what he did back in 2016 and 2015
 
Part of it is Mullins has shown that he has no problem putting a horse away until he is 100% happy e.g Faugheen who they had revved up last year but never made it to a race course. I don’t think Douvan makes the festival unless they think he can run at 170+

I don’t think you can compare Douvan and SS(SS Melling Chase win is still the most impressive performance I’ve ever seen) injuries, a broken bone and a heart problem are very different. Like I say though it just gripes me how pundits will say “until he lost” as if there wasn’t a perfectly good reason why he lost! I think he could end up an e/w price as Altior gets backed off the boards and I’d be happy to take on Altior if so.
 
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