Ballymore (Previously Neptune) Novice Hurdle 2018

[Scooby91]

Think people can massively overthink things. Supreme and Ballymore, Samcro wins one, Getabird wins the other, don’t think people will go far wrong with that. Getabird obviously more vulnerable but to think Samcro will get beat, on all known form, potential, and everything else, just seems overthinking to me. Next destination beat Cracking smart, a proper stayer, a couple of lengths. No way will he have the pace to live with Samcro

Won't go far wrong, but I want to win both for certain.
I love the spectacle but I often look deeper as i need to take a wage.
Difference in opinions and seeing races differently is why i enjoy this sport. Not long now just all got to get there and were in for a treat.

 

[Robbante]

Won't go far wrong, but I want to win both for certain.
I love the spectacle but I often look deeper as i need to take a wage.
Difference in opinions and seeing races differently is why i enjoy this sport. Not long now just all got to get there and were in for a treat.

Fair one, Samcro, Getabird and ITCF now the main 3 ive got going into battle for me, the latter based mainly on your enthusiasm for the horse from the start

 

[Can't Catch Me]

I think ND ballymore. I honestly don't think there's a huge deal between him and samcro. I think ND wants decent ground and I can't see more than a couple of lengths in it.

I agree. Its hard to know which horses are the solid yardsticks, but if Paloma Blue is, then there isnt that much between them. Likewise if Duc des Genievres is reliable, it appears there isnt either. ND beat him 4l giving him 3lbs and Samcro beat him 5l giving him 1lb.

They also know ND can handle the Festival. I dont think they will be scared to take him on with ND myself.

 

[Gilly]

They've always said he wants decent ground ND he ran a cracker in the champion bumper and he's much better over obstacles due to his slick hurdling. Samcros obvs very good. Probably more stylish. but I honestly see little between them

I can't remember exactly which podcast I heard it on but they mentioned an interesting stat regarding Samcro vs Next Destination...
Both ran at the same track, on the same day, at the same distance and samcro ran the race 12 seconds faster than ND without coming off the bridal...

Obviously races are run at different gallops but surely that speaks volumes about Samcro's ability

 

[Folski]

I can't remember exactly which podcast I heard it on but they mentioned an interesting stat regarding Samcro vs Next Destination...
Both ran at the same track, on the same day, at the same distance and samcro ran the race 12 seconds faster than ND without coming off the bridal...

Obviously races are run at different gallops but surely that speaks volumes about Samcro's ability

Never ran on same date.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Nope as Folski says, they both ran over two and a half at Navan, but three weeks apart. Also the official going was soft, heavy in places when Samcro ran. And heavy when ND ran.

 

[Kevloaf]

I missed this but Horse Racing Ireland had this interview with Michael O'Leary after Samcro won...

Is that going to be the hardest call now, because obviously he's got all sorts of entries at Cheltenham and somebody is going to have to make a decision on which one you go for?

MO'L - "He's going the Ballymore, there wouldn't be any doubt at all. I think we have Mengli Khan for the 2 mile, he'll go in the 2 and a half mile. One of the reasons Gordon wanted to run him over 2 miles today was Gordon wanted him running and jumping at that kinda pace in the Ballymore. You'll see him today, he's a huge big chaser, not a 2 mile hurdler. That should leave him right for the Ballymore and hopefully we'll have a couple of slower ones then for the Albert Bartlett."

Not sure how I managed to miss that.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Not a penny to lay on ND for this race now. Even allowing for the lack of liquidity hes been very weak for a few days.

 

[Scooby91]

Not a penny to lay on ND for this race now. Even allowing for the lack of liquidity hes been very weak for a few days.

The exchange market being win only. And if you look through this thread. Or twitter. It's all about samcro. Won't be there unfortunately on the day but I'm assuming it will be a strange atmosphere and disbelief if he dosent win. Literally everyone is on. I don't know one person who isn't. And not many people want to hear that there are others in the race.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

ND maybe AB bound. His best chance of winning a race IMO anyway.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

I don't know one person who isn't.

I'm not

 

[Kevloaf]

The exchange market being win only. And if you look through this thread. Or twitter. It's all about samcro. Won't be there unfortunately on the day but I'm assuming it will be a strange atmosphere and disbelief if he dosent win. Literally everyone is on. I don't know one person who isn't. And not many people want to hear that there are others in the race.

You would LOVE it if he got beat wouldn't you haha

Regardless of it being your best result

 

[Scooby91]

I'd have and may be very wrong.

Supreme
Getabird
Did des genievres

Ballymore
Real steel
Sharjah
Next destination.

Albert Bartlett.
Ballyward
Carter McKay
Fabulous saga.
Burrows saint


Ruby
Supreme getabird
Ballymore next destination.
Albert Bartlett Carter mckay

 

[Scooby91]

You would LOVE it if he got beat wouldn't you haha

Regardless of it being your best result

Very strangely yes. But no financially. Very strange position :highly_amused:

I need the money though it's more important than being right

I honestly don't know how iv backed myself into a corner on being against samcro. I was just annoyed that he was cut so short so quickly for doing nothing initially.

I only backed him because I knew he would shorten for any race. Then panic backed him again when paddy went 8s. From 16s. I'll be completely honest.

 

[Kevloaf]

If they're confident Next destination could pout it up to Samcro, they'd take the easier option and go and beat Cracking Smart again wouldn't they?

 

[Can't Catch Me]

I think the fact they have very little for the AB makes me think ND will go there.

They just want winners, and I can't see how anyone can realistically suggest the AB isn't the easier race for ND. He's beaten the current fav twice. He looks like he will get the trip no problem.

I think Duc de Genièvre ran another great race and they might fancy he could get a bit closer to Samcro over further next time.

I think Ruby will ride Getabird Supreme, DdC Ballymore and ND Albert Bartlett myself.

 

[Scooby91]

If they're confident Next destination could pout it up to Samcro, they'd take the easier option and go and beat Cracking Smart again wouldn't they?

I dont think ND needs 3 miles. Cracking smart would out stay him for me.

If they went 3 they'd be avoiding samcro for me. And I don't think they'll avoid him at all.

 

[Innoko]

I would be amazed if the yard even knew who was going where fro definite, so what chance do we have trying to work it out!:highly_amused:

 

[Can't Catch Me]

I would be amazed if the yard even knew who was going where fro definite, so what chance do we have trying to work it out!:highly_amused:

Considering most of their horses won't run again between now and then, I'd think they have an idea now mate! Now obviously things can change due to wellbeing of them all, but they won't be learning anything else on the racecourse before Chelts now.

 

[Scooby91]

Considering most of their horses won't run again between now and then, I'd think they have an idea now mate! Now obviously things can change due to wellbeing of them all, but they won't be learning anything else on the racecourse before Chelts now.

The 2 that diddnt run. I think already booked there place in the supreme ballymore respectively.

The others ran to get a line, book there places. In any of the 3 or martin pipe.