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Ballymore Novice Hurdle 2020

I posted the other day claiming he could be a monster. Do I look abit silly now ?? Absolutely but this is nothing unusual for me hahaha.
As novices they’re going to play about with distances and tactics looking to find out where a horse belongs. Unfortunately as a punter your going to get it right and wrong, unfortunately for me it looks like this time I’ve got it wrong (AGAIN !!!) We move on and live to fight another day.
 
I was running through the Ballymore last night and questioning whether it will be as deep as I've been saying previously. I may have been talking guff or there could just be value available as Envoi Allen is expected to win running backwards.

Envoi Allen - Consensus is he will run here but still not guaranteed.
Thyme Hill - I would not back him for this but certainly of appeal in the Spud race.
Fly Smart - Yet to be seen and is more likely a Supreme horse if good enough.
Andy Dufresne - One I respected but did not back. His chance looks reduced after the weekend loss anyway.
Abacadabras - Looks Supreme bound.
Fiddlerontheroof - Has decent(ish) form in the book but has not caught my eye and recent run was over 2m.
Latest Exhibition - Not heard anything about him
The Big Breakaway - Visually very impressive and I can't help but think he's going to be a weapon next year over fences. I have him covered but will do so again before he runs this week. Joe Tizzard mentioned he would then go for a listed race over 2m at Exeter before Cheltenham. As they are going back in trip, it could be the Ballymore is where they settle (although Native River went a similar route and ran in the AB). I think he is going to be my champion for novice chases next year and my 'darling' horse.
Malone Road - Assumed injured
Son Of Camas - Could come here but also a possibility for the Supreme. Nice win on debut if unspectacular.
Elixir D'ainay - Over priced in my eyes and I think the form with Longhouse Poet will prove decent.
Edwardstone - Travels like a Supreme horse and could be under rated in that race.
Longhouse Poet - Another I have covered from a long way back. Won nicely last time out and I think will improve gradually through the season and with better ground. Looks nailed on to run here and still a decent price.

Others lower in the market I like
Chantry House - Another I covered early for this race but that may prove to be a mistake as he looked like he could compete at 2 miles as well. The other issue is whether they take it easy with him this season.
It Sure Is - Everything went against him in the home straight on debut and he was diverted all over the place by fallers. He's entered up again this week over the trip but he could also be one that might step up further too.
Shishkin - I can't have him for the Supreme but he remains of interest at this price for the this race.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
I was running through the Ballymore last night and questioning whether it will be as deep as I've been saying previously. I may have been talking guff or there could just be value available as Envoi Allen is expected to win running backwards.

Envoi Allen - Consensus is he will run here but still not guaranteed.
Thyme Hill - I would not back him for this but certainly of appeal in the Spud race.
Fly Smart - Yet to be seen and is more likely a Supreme horse if good enough.
Andy Dufresne - One I respected but did not back. His chance looks reduced after the weekend loss anyway.
Abacadabras - Looks Supreme bound.
Fiddlerontheroof - Has decent(ish) form in the book but has not caught my eye and recent run was over 2m.
Latest Exhibition - Not heard anything about him
The Big Breakaway - Visually very impressive and I can't help but think he's going to be a weapon next year over fences. I have him covered but will do so again before he runs this week. Joe Tizzard mentioned he would then go for a listed race over 2m at Exeter before Cheltenham. As they are going back in trip, it could be the Ballymore is where they settle (although Native River went a similar route and ran in the AB). I think he is going to be my champion for novice chases next year and my 'darling' horse.
Malone Road - Assumed injured
Son Of Camas - Could come here but also a possibility for the Supreme. Nice win on debut if unspectacular.
Elixir D'ainay - Over priced in my eyes and I think the form with Longhouse Poet will prove decent.
Edwardstone - Travels like a Supreme horse and could be under rated in that race.
Longhouse Poet - Another I have covered from a long way back. Won nicely last time out and I think will improve gradually through the season and with better ground. Looks nailed on to run here and still a decent price.

Others lower in the market I like
Chantry House - Another I covered early for this race but that may prove to be a mistake as he looked like he could compete at 2 miles as well. The other issue is whether they take it easy with him this season.
It Sure Is - Everything went against him in the home straight on debut and he was diverted all over the place by fallers. He's entered up again this week over the trip but he could also be one that might step up further too.
Shishkin - I can't have him for the Supreme but he remains of interest at this price for the this race.
Click to expand...

My thoughts on the one's you have mentioned:

Envoi Allen - Confident he will run here, deserved favorite
Thyme Hill - He'll go AB IMO.
Fly Smart - Supreme bound, hopefully.
Andy Dufresne - Unlikely after yesterday
Abacadabras - Supreme bound
Fiddlerontheroof - Probably not good enough
Latest Exhibition - Nolan's have said AB is the plan
The Big Breakaway - The dark horse in here, but I think he will go over 3m (impossible to tell where he goes)
Malone Road - Confirmed injured
Son Of Camas - Supreme bound, and probably not good enough here
Elixir D'ainay - 25/1 looks a good EW bet to me
Edwardstone - Looks like a supreme horse
Longhouse Poet - 25/1 looks a good EW bet to me
Chantry House - Good chance but price gone for me. Here, not supreme.
Shishkin - I can't have him for anything other than the Supreme
 
Totally agree with the above comments had a look this morning and a lot at the top of the market are unlikely to run. Came away with the same 2 on my shortlist slightly favouring Longhouse Poet as his target is confirmed.
 
Of the obvious ones. Sporting john is missing from your lists.



Shouldn't be kn a list yet.
But mullins has a whole load of possibles. some ex French. And some with ptp backgrounds which have ran in a bumper this season.
 
Scooby91 said:
Of the obvious ones. Sporting john is missing from your lists.



Shouldn't be kn a list yet.
But mullins has a whole load of possibles. some ex French. And some with ptp backgrounds which have ran in a bumper this season.
Click to expand...

From memory ( not great ) Yokhill/Faugheen past winners .
Got it my head WPM more Supreme

Anything specific Scooby you had in mind ?
and are we looking at horses with each way claims?
 
Loads of Mullins lot that haven't been out yet, but ones for me with regards to this race, horses like Tactical Move, Egality Mans, both owned by Mrs J Donnelly (Melon, Al Boum Photo etc..), both from the PTP sphere.
 
Scooby91 said:
Of the obvious ones. Sporting john is missing from your lists.



Shouldn't be kn a list yet.
But mullins has a whole load of possibles. some ex French. And some with ptp backgrounds which have ran in a bumper this season.
Click to expand...

"Shouldn't be kn a list yet." ??

I just took the top end of the oddschecker list otherwise I'd have been here for days. Trying to predict the races for horses that haven't even run yet (and might not) is an even more impossible task too.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Loads of Mullins lot that haven't been out yet, but ones for me with regards to this race, horses like Tactical Move, Egality Mans, both owned by Mrs J Donnelly (Melon, Al Boum Photo etc..), both from the PTP sphere.
Click to expand...

Thanks COD
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Loads of Mullins lot that haven't been out yet, but ones for me with regards to this race, horses like Tactical Move, Egality Mans, both owned by Mrs J Donnelly (Melon, Al Boum Photo etc..), both from the PTP sphere.
Click to expand...

Its tough working out just where Mrs Donnelly's horses will go never mind the rest of Willie's!

She doesn't half have some ammo this year. Also has two other exciting types with WM in Asterion Forlonge and The Big Getaway who could be types for this race or possiblely the AB for the latter.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
"Shouldn't be kn a list yet." ??

I just took the top end of the oddschecker list otherwise I'd have been here for days. Trying to predict the races for horses that haven't even run yet (and might not) is an even more impossible task too.
Click to expand...

As well as a spelling error, The way in which I put across was probably wrong.

I meant, that I understand why theres some of the mullins horses which aren't included in your provisional list.

Ie aione, the big getaway, asterion forlonge... and the rest of the bumper horses.

feu de bresil, lucky one. ... and the rest of the french...

we havent seen them in a hurdle race, here yet. But I'd expect them to pop up in such a list at a later date
 
Its the one race I feel i could do with a big price to have in my book to even pick up a place or turn over EA! So at the prices anyone want to give me one for this race minimum 16s? Or should I be happy enough with my Elixar D'ainey TWAR and hope he comes here? Should i add longhouse poet?

EDIT - Just to note I have EA at bigger price for Supreme and stubbornly didnt back him here, left it too late and 5/2 seems to be only price going at the minute! So looking to take the fav on, but be over the moon with a place...
 
Big Bucks said:
Its the one race I feel i could do with a big price to have in my book to even pick up a place or turn over EA! So at the prices anyone want to give me one for this race minimum 16s? Or should I be happy enough with my Elixar D'ainey TWAR and hope he comes here? Should i add longhouse poet?

EDIT - Just to note I have EA at bigger price for Supreme and stubbornly didnt back him here, left it too late and 5/2 seems to be only price going at the minute! So looking to take the fav on, but be over the moon with a place...
Click to expand...

I'd personally wait. EA LHP and elixir may meet very soon, I think you'd probably have to have considerable preference for the former but it's not entirely impossible that theres a shock.

Or if EA hoses up, that could push elixir out to the bartlett. Or even the Martin pipe. So imo you have done the right thing with any race. As he's a horse of a good amount of ability.

Envoi allen can easily and likely will go odds on, creating even more value around him if your inclined to back EW, or take him on.
 
Scooby91 said:
As well as a spelling error, The way in which I put across was probably wrong.

I meant, that I understand why theres some of the mullins horses which aren't included in your provisional list.

Ie aione, the big getaway, asterion forlonge... and the rest of the bumper horses.

feu de bresil, lucky one. ... and the rest of the french...

we havent seen them in a hurdle race, here yet. But I'd expect them to pop up in such a list at a later date
Click to expand...

Yes there will probably be some that enter the fray but I'm not expecting 5+ to suddenly become contenders. Asterion and the Big Getaway are stayers and even if they do rock up at the festival, I'd expect the AB for them. The Frenchies are slightly harder to gauge as Willie can sometimes hold them back a year depending on age, experience and transition.
 
Scooby91 said:
I'd personally wait. EA LHP and elixir may meet very soon, I think you'd probably have to have considerable preference for the former but it's not entirely impossible that theres a shock.

Or if EA hoses up, that could push elixir out to the bartlett. Or even the Martin pipe. So imo you have done the right thing with any race. As he's a horse of a good amount of ability.

Envoi allen can easily and likely will go odds on, creating even more value around him if your inclined to back EW, or take him on.
Click to expand...

Sound advice Scooby, cheers mate.
 
Big Bucks said:
Its the one race I feel i could do with a big price to have in my book
Click to expand...

I agree BB.
I've taken a very strong view on a few novice races; Thyme Hill - potato, Samcro - JLT, Fakir - Arkle and Envoi Allen - Ballymore, so much so that I've generally ignored everything else.
Whilst I think they all go to the races I've backed them in history tells us that 3 months out things can change very quickly.

I'll look for a few nuggets from the Christmas festivals....
 
Has there been any word on AD’s performance since yesterday?

365 seem to have cut him :confused:
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Thought it was an oddschecker error but they have actually cut him to 8/1!
Click to expand...

I know they normally like a cut on a Monday, but wasn't expecting AD to be part of that....

Trying to tempt me into a cash out I feel.
 
Unbelievable... can cash him for a 50% profit on some bets. Ive split him into a few bets and going to cash at least one now.
 
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