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Ballymore Novice Hurdle 2020

Question for everyone, and please just give a yes or no answer......If EA runs twice more before Cheltenham and both runs are over 2miles and he wins them both convincingly, will he go Ballymore ?? It's a no from me.
 
He’ll go for the 2m4f Naas race, win that & go onto the Ballymore, supremely confident of it :devilish:
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Don't worry CCM, I've done the same but am 99% sure he'll go Ballymore now. I just got taken in by the Supreme being mentioned. A mistake on my part.

Royal Bond winners don't win Supremes, so he's either going to lose in the Supreme or run in the Ballymore, and basically that's settled the debate :triumphant::highly_amused::devilish:
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As I've posted all along, I dont think its set in stone. I've changed my mind as the season has gone on. Was certain Ballymore, then saw him look so impressive over 2m, combined with the Malone Road injury and changed my mind.

I posted after the Royal Bond that I thought he would go Ballymore again after Abacadabras ran so well. But if AD is impressive this weekend, it gives them something else to think about. GE will be trying to give himself the best possible chance of winning as many races as he can and thats why he needs to remain fluid.

I didnt want so much tied up on one horse in one race. Can always get involved again when its NRNB
 
Scooby91 said:
Theres alot of unknowns in the supreme, that may be capable of beating EA over 2m. I see far less in the ballymore.

Anyway pointless debate as imo hes ballymore bound. And as I said another race. Where my business is done. And I'll leave the debate. Happily holding vouchers for EA in the ballymore only.
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Id say the Ballymore looks a deeper race as we stand today. Longhouse Poet, Elixir Dainy, Andy Dufresne...

Obviously Wille could have plenty for the Supreme. NJH could have too. But they've got to come out and do it and they haven't yet. Abacadabras is the only horse Ive seen for the Supreme that I like. And EA beat him easily.
 
Lobos said:
Question for everyone, and please just give a yes or no answer......If EA runs twice more before Cheltenham and both runs are over 2miles and he wins them both convincingly, will he go Ballymore ?? It's a no from me.
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Yes. Samcro ran more times over 2m than 2m5f before going Ballymore, see no reason EA wouldn’t do the same.
 
Scooby91 said:
Theres alot of unknowns in the supreme, that may be capable of beating EA over 2m. I see far less in the ballymore.

Anyway pointless debate as imo hes ballymore bound. And as I said another race. Where my business is done. And I'll leave the debate. Happily holding vouchers for EA in the ballymore only.
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The point people seem to be missing.
 
Jon Snow was a popular one for this with many not long ago. Fly Smart may or may not be any better?
 
Plenty of assumptions at this stage to be honest.

I like many others had him as a ballymore type and backed accordingly.

When MR got injured I stuck a point on EA as a cover/shot to nothing, which at present is paying with the CashOut increasing with every win.

The long term plan when EA and MR were both fit and well was ballymore and supreme, think we are pretty certain on that. Because MR got injured I don’t think that should change the long term goal of EA.

To add to that I completely understand why connections would be happy to continue going for 2m races when he’s winning them fairly convincingly.

Very interesting debate none the less. We will soon find out in the next month or so.
 
What I have learnt with this debate and my own bets is that next season when I'm backing any horse for the Novice races I'm going to go down the TWAR market. My mate has a shed load on Envoi in that market at pretty prices from a high of 10.88/1 and he couldn't give a shit where he ends up !
 
The Cheveley angle is interesting, could be a carbon copy of last season with Envoi again taking the vacant spot left by Malone Road. Albeit there is the option of multiple races this year to factor in. I'd imagine Cheveley had a bigger say last year because they wanted runners at the festival but i'd be pretty confident that Gordon will make the decision this year.

I think its clear that the plan at the start of the season was Ballymore but if he's beating everything over 2m why would you step up. IMO he would be more vulnerable to a 'speed' horse over 2m and I'd be pretty confident he'd have everything covered in the Ballly. If you're placing the horse on where it has the best chance of winning you're going Bally 100%.

Would he be eligible for the race City Island won at Naas? Would be surprised if he didn't go to the DRF though..
 
one of the best debates I have seen on here EVER, its like Boris v Jeremy. Well done all.

I have him covered for both but main bet is Ballymore and I also think that's where he will end up. More a hunch than anything but the money being laid down on these things does normally tell a tale.
 
Parachute Paddy said:
The Cheveley angle is interesting, could be a carbon copy of last season with Envoi again taking the vacant spot left by Malone Road. Albeit there is the option of multiple races this year to factor in. I'd imagine Cheveley had a bigger say last year because they wanted runners at the festival but i'd be pretty confident that Gordon will make the decision this year.

I think its clear that the plan at the start of the season was Ballymore but if he's beating everything over 2m why would you step up. IMO he would be more vulnerable to a 'speed' horse over 2m and I'd be pretty confident he'd have everything covered in the Ballly. If you're placing the horse on where it has the best chance of winning you're going Bally 100%.

Would he be eligible for the race City Island won at Naas? Would be surprised if he didn't go to the DRF though..
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Couldn’t disagree more. Speed in a supreme is massively overrated. You need to gallop and stay, a turn of foot is more likely in the Ballymore. They go one hell of a gallop in the supreme and think he can dictate things from the front.
 
Parachute Paddy said:
The Cheveley angle is interesting, could be a carbon copy of last season with Envoi again taking the vacant spot left by Malone Road. Albeit there is the option of multiple races this year to factor in. I'd imagine Cheveley had a bigger say last year because they wanted runners at the festival but i'd be pretty confident that Gordon will make the decision this year.

I think its clear that the plan at the start of the season was Ballymore but if he's beating everything over 2m why would you step up. IMO he would be more vulnerable to a 'speed' horse over 2m and I'd be pretty confident he'd have everything covered in the Ballly. If you're placing the horse on where it has the best chance of winning you're going Bally 100%.

Would he be eligible for the race City Island won at Naas? Would be surprised if he didn't go to the DRF though..
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No that was a ‘for auction’ novice hurdle, he wouldn’t qualify. I can see him going straight to Cheltenham after Naas!
 
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