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Ballymore Novice Hurdle 2020

I'm with Scooby in following Pads and Betfair tbh, it was quite an big topic a couple of years back on here about them two bookmakers, and I've never ignored it since.

Envoi Allen is 1/3 to run in the Ballymore, which is plenty enough to tell me what is going to happen. As also have stated, listening to an owner/trainer/jockey this far out would be a mistake IMO.
 
fitzy78 said:
Personally Andy D will run sunday and run in the 2m6 at the DRF and then on to the Bartlett. Envoi will go Naas on the 5th Jan, Deloitte at the DRF and then the Ballymore. To top the bet up stick Samcro in for the RSA. See you on the other side chaps.

All jokes aside Andy D is a Doyen and they stay! I like to look at past results and see what paths trainers take and IF Andy D turns up Sunday he will follow the footsteps of No More Heroes and Death Duty.

Thats my opinion..... Hit Me!
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I've considered this option myself, but personally don't have Doyen down as a sire of 3 milers, even if Beneficial should give some extra stamina to his breeding.
 
Can someone point me in the right direction of where PP have envoi Allen priced to run in the supreme or ballymore because I can't see it......thanks in advance
 
Everyone seems to be obsessed with odds on here. If it’s that much of a certainty he runs in the Ballymore then get your mortgage on at 1/3
 
Kautothegreat8 said:
Everyone seems to be obsessed with odds on here. If it’s that much of a certainty he runs in the Ballymore then get your mortgage on at 1/3
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It's not just based on a hunch, it's going on previous seasons. Patterns do emerge.

Why back him at 1/3 when he basically wins the Ballymore at 3's?
 
Kautothegreat8 said:
Stayers win supremes not speed horses.
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The supreme looks pretty easy to me. To be ahead of the market.

I think if you've backed abacadabras.

And you have chantry house / shiskin with cashout.

Your well ahead of the game until willie plays his hand.
 
I’ll play a bit of devils advocate as I’ve not got enough at stake to become emotionally attached to the Envoi Allen decision.

Last season we saw a flip flop on Envoi Allen but we don’t know if that was Gordon changing his mind or Cheveley overruling him. The decision was merely should he run as he only had the one race to target. This season the decision is regarding the target as there is no doubt he’ll run if fit. Will the ‘yard money’ prevail or do Cheveley make the call? I’m not sure anyone, other than those involved, can pass judgement on that with 100% certainty.

The other angle to consider is Gordon’s future pursuit of festival glory and a trainers title. Can he afford to rock the boat with a new, powerful owner? Last year he was the beneficiary of their two most expensive NH recruits but this season it switched to Willie. If Gordon wants to keep them on side, he may have to play ball or risk losing them in the future. He could potentially see a significant cut in his top class horses now Gigginstown are winding down so keeping Cheveley on board could be vital to his success.
 
Scooby91 said:
The supreme looks pretty easy to me. To be ahead of the market.

I think if you've backed abacadabras.

And you have chantry house / shiskin with cashout.

Your well ahead of the game until willie plays his hand.
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If envoi doesn’t run for whatever reason I’d be very sweet on Blue Sari
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I'm with Scooby in following Pads and Betfair tbh, it was quite an big topic a couple of years back on here about them two bookmakers, and I've never ignored it since.

Envoi Allen is 1/3 to run in the Ballymore, which is plenty enough to tell me what is going to happen. As also have stated, listening to an owner/trainer/jockey this far out would be a mistake IMO.
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I obviously pay a lot of attention to this as well and have for a few years. But Im intrigued as to why they even started this market if they know which race he goes for... and even more so that there was very little in the prices. Was it 13/8 Ballymore when they opened? Why would they offer 13/8 if its already decided?

Maybe they took the view that they'd get more Supreme and CH money and overall it would be a winner for them. But interesting nonetheless.
 
Loving the banter on Envoi Allen today, it's great to see such conviction.

Sundays Grade 2 over 2M4F should shape the Ballymore market behind Envoi Allen a lot more, and give Gordon a decent steer for his 2M4F options, as he has six of the eleven entries. Also should be of interest for the Bartlett and Giggy novices that may move toward the handicaps at the Festival.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
I’ll play a bit of devils advocate as I’ve not got enough at stake to become emotionally attached to the Envoi Allen decision.

Last season we saw a flip flop on Envoi Allen but we don’t know if that was Gordon changing his mind or Cheveley overruling him. The decision was merely should he run as he only had the one race to target. This season the decision is regarding the target as there is no doubt he’ll run if fit. Will the ‘yard money’ prevail or do Cheveley make the call? I’m not sure anyone, other than those involved, can pass judgement on that with 100% certainty.

The other angle to consider is Gordon’s future pursuit of festival glory and a trainers title. Can he afford to rock the boat with a new, powerful owner? Last year he was the beneficiary of their two most expensive NH recruits but this season it switched to Willie. If Gordon wants to keep them on side, he may have to play ball or risk losing them in the future. He could potentially see a significant cut in his top class horses now Gigginstown are winding down so keeping Cheveley on board could be vital to his success.
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Really good point
 
Yes, good point re Cheveley Park, JackieM. They have a spread of trainers in Ireland, not completely in thrall to Gordon (Like Rich Ricci to Willie M).
 
JackieMoon33 said:
I’ll play a bit of devils advocate as I’ve not got enough at stake to become emotionally attached to the Envoi Allen decision.

Last season we saw a flip flop on Envoi Allen but we don’t know if that was Gordon changing his mind or Cheveley overruling him. The decision was merely should he run as he only had the one race to target. This season the decision is regarding the target as there is no doubt he’ll run if fit. Will the ‘yard money’ prevail or do Cheveley make the call? I’m not sure anyone, other than those involved, can pass judgement on that with 100% certainty.

The other angle to consider is Gordon’s future pursuit of festival glory and a trainers title. Can he afford to rock the boat with a new, powerful owner? Last year he was the beneficiary of their two most expensive NH recruits but this season it switched to Willie. If Gordon wants to keep them on side, he may have to play ball or risk losing them in the future. He could potentially see a significant cut in his top class horses now Gigginstown are winding down so keeping Cheveley on board could be vital to his success.
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I cant see it rocking the boat, very easy for them to convince them the ballymore is the right race. I cant think of why they'd say no we'd like to go for the supreme. You sell the dream with the gold cup down the line.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
I’ll play a bit of devils advocate as I’ve not got enough at stake to become emotionally attached to the Envoi Allen decision.

Last season we saw a flip flop on Envoi Allen but we don’t know if that was Gordon changing his mind or Cheveley overruling him. The decision was merely should he run as he only had the one race to target. This season the decision is regarding the target as there is no doubt he’ll run if fit. Will the ‘yard money’ prevail or do Cheveley make the call? I’m not sure anyone, other than those involved, can pass judgement on that with 100% certainty.

The other angle to consider is Gordon’s future pursuit of festival glory and a trainers title. Can he afford to rock the boat with a new, powerful owner? Last year he was the beneficiary of their two most expensive NH recruits but this season it switched to Willie. If Gordon wants to keep them on side, he may have to play ball or risk losing them in the future. He could potentially see a significant cut in his top class horses now Gigginstown are winding down so keeping Cheveley on board could be vital to his success.
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Excellent post Jackie. I posted about the ownership thing a while back. With Gigg investing less in big money purchases, its definitely going to be a factor in GE's mind. There aren't many owners like JP and Cheveley Park.

Whatever anyone says, my experience of owning horses makes me absolutely certain this hasnt been set in stone already. They will have a plan and an idea, but no top class trainer would not consider all eventualities. And of course, things can change at the drop of a hat.
 
Scooby91 said:
I cant see it rocking the boat, very easy for them to convince them the ballymore is the right race. I cant think of why they'd say no we'd like to go for the supreme. You sell the dream with the gold cup down the line.
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Thats the thing though. It isnt 'very easy' to convince them anymore. Not after seeing how slick and pacy he has been over hurdles over 2m this seeason and considering he's never ran at another distance over them.
 
They also said
"We keep saying he wants stepping up in trip"

When he says nows the time,
They're hardly going to say hang on a minute, we'd like to stay 2 miles.

They've basically told you the answer.
 
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