Ballymore Novice Hurdle 2019

[Hurricane fly]

Decided it’s time to fire this one up, as there are quite a few horses we are all interested in who could be lining up in it.

Commander of Fleet 16/1 across the board
Winner of the Goffs bumper at Punchestown in his first start for Gordon Elliott a PtP win suggests he will have no issues going over obstacles.

He could well start out over two miles but I'd expect that he will eventually come into his own over longer trips.

- Gordon Elliott


Relegate 16/1 across the board
Winner of the Cheltenham Bumper, she then disappointed at Punchestown finished 7th. Mullins has a lot of promising youngsters so her participation is now where near guaranteed with the Mares Novice an option

Danny Kirwan best priced 20/1 Betfair as low as 16/1
Looked a promising type before disappointing at Aintree. Again a former winning PtP on soft-heavy suggests he will stay and jump fine, could be the one to bring znicholls back into Grade 1 contention

i think the world of him

- Paul Nicholls

Envoi Allen best priced 20/1 (multiple) as low as 14/1 w/ Sky bet

A huge price at the Cheltenham sales costing over £400,000 Envoi Allen hasn’t been seen on course yet but has won a PtP. Absolutely no guarantee he will go here with Elliott saying he will start of in a bumper. The fact that he is 14/1 favourite with skybet is really interesting to me. Part of the hype maybe coming from the fact that he has come from the same place as Samcro.

Blackbow best priced 25/1 w/ bet365 as low as 16/1(multiple)
Favourite for the Cheltenham bumper he finished 5th after being a bit keen midrace, followed up with a good second at Punchestown. Won a bumper in England before being bought by Harold Kirk for Mullins (an unusual move as it’s normally Irish PtP winners being taken the other way)

Carefully selected best priced 25/1 w/bet365 as low as 16/1 (multiple)
Another top Mullins bumper horse from last year finishing 2nd at Cheltenham and 3rd at Punchestown, a former PtP winner who I know a few are keen on for the AB showing that he has options.


Other favourites
Bullionaire - 20/1 only priced up by sky Bet, 2nd to Didtheyleaveuoutto at Ascot he was withheld from the major spring festivals but both races were on GS doesn’t suggest worries about better ground

Sebastopol - 20/1 only priced up by Skybet. Winner of his sole run a bumper in Ayr

Asterion Forlonge - 20/1 only priced up by Paddy Power and Betfair. Won a 2m4 PtP but can’t say I’ve heard of it.

Others of interest include Tornado Flyer (25/1), Hollowgraphic (33/1), Coloumn of Fleet (33/1) and many more.


I’ve mainly got this covered thanks to the any race(4U on Hollowgraphic @12/14 and 2.5U on Tornado Flyer)market but do have Hollowgraphic in a lucky 15 at 33/1

 

[Scooby91]

Decided it’s time to fire this one up, as there are quite a few horses we are all interested in who could be lining up in it.

Commander of Fleet 16/1 across the board
Winner of the Goffs bumper at Punchestown in his first start for Gordon Elliott a PtP win suggests he will have no issues going over obstacles.


- Gordon Elliott


Relegate 16/1 across the board
Winner of the Cheltenham Bumper, she then disappointed at Punchestown finished 7th. Mullins has a lot of promising youngsters so her participation is now where near guaranteed with the Mares Novice an option

Danny Kirwan best priced 20/1 Betfair as low as 16/1
Looked a promising type before disappointing at Aintree. Again a former winning PtP on soft-heavy suggests he will stay and jump fine, could be the one to bring znicholls back into Grade 1 contention


- Paul Nicholls

Envoi Allen best priced 20/1 (multiple) as low as 14/1 w/ Sky bet

A huge price at the Cheltenham sales costing over £400,000 Envoi Allen hasn’t been seen on course yet but has won a PtP. Absolutely no guarantee he will go here with Elliott saying he will start of in a bumper. The fact that he is 14/1 favourite with skybet is really interesting to me. Part of the hype maybe coming from the fact that he has come from the same place as Samcro.

Blackbow best priced 25/1 w/ bet365 as low as 16/1(multiple)
Favourite for the Cheltenham bumper he finished 5th after being a bit keen midrace, followed up with a good second at Punchestown. Purely a bumper horse with no ptP experience we will have to see how he jumps.

Carefully selected best priced 25/1 w/bet365 as low as 16/1 (multiple)
Another top Mullins bumper horse from last year finishing 2nd at Cheltenham and 3rd at Punchestown, a former PtP winner who I know a few are keen on for the AB showing that he has options.


Other favourites
Bullionaire - 20/1 only priced up by sky Bet, 2nd to Didtheyleaveuoutto at Ascot he was withheld from the major spring festivals but both races were on GS doesn’t suggest worries about better ground

Sebastopol - 20/1 only priced up by Skybet. Winner of his sole run a bumper in Ayr

Asterion Forlonge - 20/1 only priced up by Paddy Power and Betfair. Won a 2m4 PtP but can’t say I’ve heard of it.

Others of interest include Tornado Flyer (25/1), Hollowgraphic (33/1), Coloumn of Fleet (33/1) and many more.


I’ve mainly got this covered thanks to the any race(4U on Hollowgraphic @12/14 and 2.5U on Tornado Flyer)market but do have Hollowgraphic in a lucky 15 at 33/1

Blackbow won a ptp. But a really good breakdown never the less, top job.

 

[Hurricane fly]

So he did! Updated with correction and much appreciated

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Decided it’s time to fire this one up, as there are quite a few horses we are all interested in who could be lining up in it.

Commander of Fleet 16/1 across the board
Winner of the Goffs bumper at Punchestown in his first start for Gordon Elliott a PtP win suggests he will have no issues going over obstacles.


- Gordon Elliott


Relegate 16/1 across the board
Winner of the Cheltenham Bumper, she then disappointed at Punchestown finished 7th. Mullins has a lot of promising youngsters so her participation is now where near guaranteed with the Mares Novice an option

Danny Kirwan best priced 20/1 Betfair as low as 16/1
Looked a promising type before disappointing at Aintree. Again a former winning PtP on soft-heavy suggests he will stay and jump fine, could be the one to bring znicholls back into Grade 1 contention


- Paul Nicholls

Envoi Allen best priced 20/1 (multiple) as low as 14/1 w/ Sky bet

A huge price at the Cheltenham sales costing over £400,000 Envoi Allen hasn’t been seen on course yet but has won a PtP. Absolutely no guarantee he will go here with Elliott saying he will start of in a bumper. The fact that he is 14/1 favourite with skybet is really interesting to me. Part of the hype maybe coming from the fact that he has come from the same place as Samcro.

Blackbow best priced 25/1 w/ bet365 as low as 16/1(multiple)
Favourite for the Cheltenham bumper he finished 5th after being a bit keen midrace, followed up with a good second at Punchestown. Won a bumper in England before being bought by Harold Kirk for Mullins (an unusual move as it’s normally Irish PtP winners being taken the other way)

Carefully selected best priced 25/1 w/bet365 as low as 16/1 (multiple)
Another top Mullins bumper horse from last year finishing 2nd at Cheltenham and 3rd at Punchestown, a former PtP winner who I know a few are keen on for the AB showing that he has options.


Other favourites
Bullionaire - 20/1 only priced up by sky Bet, 2nd to Didtheyleaveuoutto at Ascot he was withheld from the major spring festivals but both races were on GS doesn’t suggest worries about better ground

Sebastopol - 20/1 only priced up by Skybet. Winner of his sole run a bumper in Ayr

Asterion Forlonge - 20/1 only priced up by Paddy Power and Betfair. Won a 2m4 PtP but can’t say I’ve heard of it.

Others of interest include Tornado Flyer (25/1), Hollowgraphic (33/1), Coloumn of Fleet (33/1) and many more.


I’ve mainly got this covered thanks to the any race(4U on Hollowgraphic @12/14 and 2.5U on Tornado Flyer)market but do have Hollowgraphic in a lucky 15 at 33/1

Nice start HF, was waiting for this race to pop up, I would have done it myself, but you certainly done a better job than I could have.

Whilst there are plenty of likely challengers, as you have noted, I can't help but feel Hollowgraphic is the one for this race from the Mullins yard this season, and I have made a point across a couple of other threads on him too.

Now to put his case forward, well, to be honest, there isn't a whole heap of backed up history to go at why he is my expected Mullins' top horse for it, but I have the following points:

The yards last 2 winners, Yorkhill and Faugheen, were both held back from running at Cheltenham in the bumper, whether there were underlying issues, who really knows, but both did not run, and then subsequently ran in this race come the festival, Hollowgraphic ('supposed set back') also taken out of the bumper for the festival. Next Destination ran in the bumper the previous festival, and just managed a place as a novice hurdler this season, so I feel the lack of a run at the festival is actually a nod towards the positive box for me.

His debut run under rules in the Goffs bumper was an extremely solid effort, and unlike some of those who finished in and around him that day he remained a bumper horse rather than choosing to jump a hurdle for another season which will have strengthened him further I'd suspect. His next bumper run under rules was extremely impressive, the way he drew clear on heavy ground to end up winning by 13 lengths suggests a step up in trip is definitely not out of the question. The way he cruised round horses to take it up that day also reminded me a little of Samcro, who done the same thing, but the likelihood is that Hollowgraphic won't come up against a Samcro this time around. This was only a minor observation and not for one minute saying Hollowgraphic is the next Samcro by any stretch, but the potential is there for sure. The form of this win is not without positives too, the 2nd placed horse that day has won twice since, also losing as well, but the wins are positive, the 3rd placed horse, who was 31 lengths behind Hollowgraphic that day has also been out and won twice, amongst a couple of losing efforts in the process too, and the 3rd placed horse, some 43 legnths away has won its only start since that race.

Breeding, not something I have looked at extensively, so it may well be that the majority of runners come from sires known for being 'top class' over 12f, but like previous mentioned Mullins winners (Faugheen (by Germany) & Yorkhill (by Presenting)), Hollowgraphic comes from a 'top class' sire who at his best raced between 8-12f. Samcro was also by Germany, and Willoughby Court, interestingly and another positive for Hollowgraphic was sired by an unraced brother of Hollowgraphics sire, Beat Hollow, make of it what you will but it's looking good to me. Finally, just to complete the whole past 5 year, winning sire connection to 12f horses, Windsor Park was by Galileo, I'm hoping I don't have to discuss how good he was as a race horse or a sire, but again, another 'top class' 12f sire.

That, I'm afraid, is pretty much all I have in my locker to back up my Hollowgraphic claims, enough for me to be on at that 33/1 though. Will also back the 'any race' market as cover.

 

[Innoko]

This race is one of the main reasons I've used the 'Any Race' market this year.

I would want the Elliott and Mullins horses onside when they line up, but trying to work that out this far in advance is impossible to a certain extent.

Pym and Danny Kirwan were the other two I have looked at. But once again, I would be backing 'Any Race'. As there is always the chance they could even end up in a handicap at the festival.

 

[jack1092]

This is one of those races i find very hard to get involved in so early...with the bingo that happens nearer March, you just can't be sure who will want to avoid eachother.

Hollowgraphic looks good, but must be fragile....from what i've heard i wouldn't be in a rush to back him until you hear he's definitely returned to training lets just say that...

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Commander of Fleet is one of my bigger antepost bets placed so far.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Commander of Fleet is one of my bigger antepost bets placed so far.

and mine MoM

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Commander of Fleet is one of my bigger antepost bets placed so far.

He has to go down as a potential for sure, the problem with him is the Gigginstown/Samcro memories of last season are not just factored into his price but also fresh in the memory of many and therefore there must be some sort of bias (inevitably) towards him.

I have this niggly feeling he could end up a Supreme horse though may well be wrong, which is why I'd prefer a boosted (WH) 12/1 'any race' than 16/1 for a specific race.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

He has to go down as a potential for sure, the problem with him is the Gigginstown/Samcro memories of last season are not just factored into his price but also fresh in the memory of many and therefore there must be some sort of bias (inevitably) towards him.

I have this niggly feeling he could end up a Supreme horse though may well be wrong, which is why I'd prefer a boosted (WH) 12/1 'any race' than 16/1 for a specific race.

I'd like to think that no one on here is backing CoF purely because of what Samcro did last season.

The positive I read into it is that Gigginstown will likely target the Ballymore again with their best novice, given that they've suffered a couple of high profile defeats in the AB in the last few years with No More Heroes and Death Duty.

 

[thistlecracker]

and mine MoM

Are you on any race FM? I have a couple of units for Bally more but gradually been converting my hedge towards any race

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I'd like to think that no one on here is backing CoF purely because of what Samcro did last season.

The positive I read into it is that Gigginstown will likely target the Ballymore again with their best novice, given that they've suffered a couple of high profile defeats in the AB in the last few years with No More Heroes and Death Duty.

Yeah, I'd hope so too, but I'm not putting it out of the question, that's all. I think many of us at some point would have backed a Mullins Supreme horse 'blind' so no reason why CoF would be any different, given connections strong performance in the race last season.

Agree, think best novice will go for the Ballymore and he is one I have on side anyway, but as I said previously, my main hope for the race is Hollowgraphic, with the argument for him made as per my original post on this thread

What with the previously mentioned horses by HF this race could turn out to be a cracker, fingers crossed they all turn up fit and well.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Are you on any race FM? I have a couple of units for Bally more but gradually been converting my hedge towards any race

I'm all in on the Ballymore for CoF. I don't see him as an AB horse but I suppose he could be a supreme horse if he makes the grade.

 

[SAMCRO]

Someone on the monday night review podcast who is part of an owners group with horses with Elliott. Last year he had an early bet on Samcro any race and this year hes had an early bet on Commander Of Fleet any race.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm all in on the Ballymore for CoF. I don't see him as an AB horse but I suppose he could be a supreme horse if he makes the grade.

66% of stakes on Betfair for COF have been for the Ballymore tbf, so you may well be right. If it takes as long as the Samcro decision to be made and he performs on the track it is a traders dream.

 

[thistlecracker]

66% of stakes on Betfair for COF have been for the Ballymore tbf, so you may well be right. If it takes as long as the Samcro decision to be made and he performs on the track it is a traders dream.

Where did you get them stats on regarding the 66% ? Would be interesting to see the stats on other races too

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Where did you get them stats on regarding the 66% ? Would be interesting to see the stats on other races too

They were worked out by myself, only on the stakes shown as matched on Betfair, Ballymore currently £1324 and Supreme £664. Think it works out at 66.599% to be exact

 

[Kevloaf]

Backed Pym 45/1 1 pt win tonight for this race.

 

[Kevloaf]

I am tempted to back Acey Milan at 33/1 for this race.

4th in the Champion Bumper that Mullins had the 1st,2nd,3rd,5th,7th - with Gordon Elliott having the 6th.

That makes me want to upgrade how good Acey Milan actually is, because Mullins/Elliott are almost unstoppable. THe issue is, that in this race, he's almost certainly going to be up against the same two trainers who have something for the race... and they are unstoppable still!

CoF seems to already be there for Elliott and take your pick for Mullins. I noticed today that Tornado Flyer is the highest rated bumper horse on RPR's that Mullins has had in the last 5 years! I think we can tend to over-egg the bumper horses but the 'fact' is that even if it isn't Tornado Flyer, you'd expect at least one of them to progress to the top flight over hurdles and then even if thery ALL FLOP, he'll no doubt have some novice hurdlers that didn't take the bumper route...

I've backed Pym tonight, and I do want to back Acey Milan.... but Mullins or Elliott win this race don't they? ?

I wonder if anyone will offer evens that Mullins or Elliott win the Ballymore :highly_amused:

 

[JackieMoon33]

I am tempted to back Acey Milan at 33/1 for this race.

4th in the Champion Bumper that Mullins had the 1st,2nd,3rd,5th,7th - with Gordon Elliott having the 6th.

That makes me want to upgrade how good Acey Milan actually is, because Mullins/Elliott are almost unstoppable. THe issue is, that in this race, he's almost certainly going to be up against the same two trainers who have something for the race... and they are unstoppable still!

CoF seems to already be there for Elliott and take your pick for Mullins. I noticed today that Tornado Flyer is the highest rated bumper horse on RPR's that Mullins has had in the last 5 years! I think we can tend to over-egg the bumper horses but the 'fact' is that even if it isn't Tornado Flyer, you'd expect at least one of them to progress to the top flight over hurdles and then even if thery ALL FLOP, he'll no doubt have some novice hurdlers that didn't take the bumper route...

I've backed Pym tonight, and I do want to back Acey Milan.... but Mullins or Elliott win this race don't they? ?

I wonder if anyone will offer evens that Mullins or Elliott win the Ballymore :highly_amused:

Based on all the potentially exciting horses coming through this season, I think the Ballymore could be the destination for most of them and could prove to be a very competitive renewal. The Fame And Glory (Commander Of Fleet and Sebastopol) progeny I fully expect to end up here and not in the Supreme. Tornado Flyer looks to have the right blend of speed and stamina and as he's by Flemensfirth, it's highly unlikely he'll be going for the Supreme either. Danny Kirwan could have an easy season with chasing in mind but if he goes to the festival, I'd see him running here. I believe Olly Murphy has stated Brewinupastorm will need further than 2 miles so you can throw him into the mix. Of the other Mullins horses I can't get a handle on what Hollowgraphic or Blackbows trips will be and Carefully Selected looks an Albert Bartlett horse. Another outside dark horse could be Downtown Getaway for Nicky Henderson and he's very interesting wherever he goes this season (no mention in the stable tour though).

All in all this will be a very competitive race in the same way as the RSA will be for the Novice chases (all the talented Novice chasers seem to be stayers bar Samcro)