Ballymore Novice Hurdle 2019

[Scooby91]

For interest, how has your approach changed since 365 started this (last season)...

It's obviously incredibly fruitful now, and I'm right there doing it as much as I can, because I feel you can eliminate quite a lot of risk - but it's only recent, and if it does stop, what strategy will you go back to?

Changed massively
Its easy to see the ones that are going to shorten up upon entries and therefore create a no lose bet. Or the ones that will just go very close for sure and the odds won't lengthen. I add them to the market if need be in preparation. Can back big with huge confidence knowing it's extremely likely even if they fell/ bombed that you can get your stake back.
Making the absolute most of it while it's here.


Plans to win enough that I don't have to even think about next year. And I'm using the account as if I won't need it anymore.

 

[Innoko]

I'd be amazed if all of our profits aren't up this year.

Always treat the better half to a two week break using some of the profits....might be able to afford to go with her this year :highly_amused:

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

I'd be amazed if all of our profits aren't up this year.

Always treat the better half to a two week break using some of the profits....might be able to afford to go with her this year :highly_amused:

I just wish I had a bigger bank to play with, finding myself having to cash out on some bets I’d ideally keep open, so I have funds available to invest in one’s i’m more confident will shorten

 

[Innoko]

I just wish I had a bigger bank to play with, finding myself having to cash out on some bets I’d ideally keep open, so I have funds available to invest in one’s i’m more confident will shorten

I'm not a big punter by any means. It's a hobby for me and if I make a few quid then great.

I know what I can have tied up each month and just bet accordingly. I wouldn't bet as much to put me in financial stress until next payday for example.

 

[TimRiggins]

I'm not a big punter by any means. It's a hobby for me and if I make a few quid then great.

I know what I can have tied up each month and just bet accordingly. I wouldn't bet as much to put me in financial stress until next payday for example.

Same as that.

Essentially a thrift club, that might pay decent interest.

My Xmas is the summer holidays, though. I've gotten a bit carried away in the a/r market, though :highly_amused:

 

[billymag]

Backed Angels Breath for this, trained by Nicky Henderson and will be out very soon

 

[Scooby91]

Backed Angels Breath for this, trained by Nicky Henderson and will be out very soon

Interesting, a shame the very man fell last time. Dai Walters is due a good one. Has had some awful luck down the years.

After his ptp
“He is a lovely horse with a big engine. He was showing us plenty at home and we really fancied him. He has a bright future ahead of him.”

 

[jack1092]

Backed Angels Breath for this, trained by Nicky Henderson and will be out very soon

Hope he does well too- is out of the same mare i had a leg of, sadly hasn't made the track + has been sold...

still would like to see them do well!

 

[billymag]

Im assuming hes more likely to go for this but ill ask Hills to price him up any race also in the morning

 

[lloydy]

Im assuming hes more likely to go for this but ill ask Hills to price him up any race also in the morning

Thanks Billymag, two entries this week at Warwick and Cheltenham over 2m. I will probably go the any race route

 

[Kevloaf]

Was happy with both Tornado Flyer and Brewin’upastorm today. Olly Murphy repeated again after the race that he is the best he has which takes on a bit more substance with the way Thomas Darby has started the season. Didn’t find his jumping totally convincing but jumped the last few well and certainly wasn’t stopping at the line which bodes well for this race. Murphy added the prep had not been easy this last 6 weeks and now he was up and running there would be plenty more to come.

Any indication regarding trip RC?

 

[Kevloaf]

Thanks Billymag, two entries this week at Warwick and Cheltenham over 2m. I will probably go the any race route

He's 33/1 with 365 for both.

I'd prefer that than the "any race" I think... just in case.

 

[Kevloaf]

Kalum River was beaten 17L by Tornado Flyer today.
Before today Kalum River had been 2nd to Commander of Fleet 6L - and 2nd to Royal Rendezvous 4L

Press Conference was beaten 28L by Tornado Flyer today
Before today Press Conference had been beaten 13L by Lone Wolf, was 10L behind Brewin'upastorm in a P2P and 5L 2nd behind Carefully Selected in a bumper

Cueno was beaten 13L by Tornado Flyer today
That horse won the race than Relegate was beaten in at 4/9 for Willie last time out.

Dream Conti was beaten 9L by Tornado Flyer today
Was his first run over hurdles and had been a very well beaten fav behind Raya Time in his final bumper start

Take Revenge was beaten 3L by Tornado Flyer today
He's previously been beaten 26L by Dorrells Pierji. A good run from him today.


That was a deeper race than I realised.

 

[Scooby91]

Kalum River was beaten 17L by Tornado Flyer today.
Before today Kalum River had been 2nd to Commander of Fleet 6L - and 2nd to Royal Rendezvous 4L

Press Conference was beaten 28L by Tornado Flyer today
Before today Press Conference had been beaten 13L by Lone Wolf, was 10L behind Brewin'upastorm in a P2P and 5L 2nd behind Carefully Selected in a bumper

Cueno was beaten 13L by Tornado Flyer today
That horse won the race than Relegate was beaten in at 4/9 for Willie last time out.

Dream Conti was beaten 9L by Tornado Flyer today
Was his first run over hurdles and had been a very well beaten fav behind Raya Time in his final bumper start

Take Revenge was beaten 3L by Tornado Flyer today
He's previously been beaten 26L by Dorrells Pierji. A good run from him today.


That was a deeper race than I realised.

Think you got dream conti wrong there. He won his only bumper well and was a £270,000 purchase beforehand

 

[billymag]

Angels Breath 25/1 any race

 

[Kevloaf]

Angels Breath 25/1 any race

Who with?

33s with 365 for those inclined to 'do it themselves'

 

[Chris]

I just a had look back at the Punchestown bumper and Tornado Flyer look the first horse beaten and Blackbow was cantering with a furlong and half to run but came under pressure and after that he stayed on. I can only see Tornado, Blackbow and Carefully Sel. as stayers.

 

[Scooby91]

I just a had look back at the Punchestown bumper and Tornado Flyer look the first horse beaten and Blackbow was cantering with a furlong and half to run but came under pressure and after that he stayed on. I can only see Tornado, Blackbow and Carefully Sel. as stayers.

You have to put it into context with how far back the others were . Blackbow is a keen traveller he could run over 2m no bother hopefully he's not quite as keen. Tornado flyer he could drop to 2 no bother aswell bit he's going for the lawlors hotel at naas next that's the ballymore route. Carefully selected he won't be dropping back to 2 he's more than enough pace for 21/2 But he could go up to 3. They're 3 very very good bumper horses imo. Tornado flyer just showed it on the track. Blackbow and carefully selected have already won there ptp so they should be well able to translate that form to hurdles

 

[jack1092]

On Tornado Flyer i'd be surprised if he went any further than 2 1/2 this year..he has a bit of keenness there.

Not really, If I had to rank the bumper horses from last year, and the better ones get over bet anyway IMO.
I personally liked carefully selected the most, but blackbow and tornado could prove to be the better of course.

In my mind It's more often the case that horses down the field in the bumper do better the following season as a lot of trainers aren't training them for the champion bumper and are more interested in hurdlers and chasers in the long term.

As a general rule this is strictly true.

However, i think given the giggy fallout a few years back now, this was Willie's first actual full string of horses coming out after the box refill- i wouldn't be surprised if his bumper runners last year buck the trend.

 

[Quevega]

On Tornado Flyer i'd be surprised if he went any further than 2 1/2 this year..he has a bit of keenness there.



As a general rule this is strictly true.

However, i think given the giggy fallout a few years back now, this was Willie's first actual full string of horses coming out after the box refill- i wouldn't be surprised if his bumper runners last year buck the trend.

When making bets I like general rules, especially when the market tends to ignore them.
The successful Bumper horses are generally overbet, so are triumph horse's going for the champion hurdle.
They seem obvious options but statistically they rarely deliver wins or places (if you play each way).

With the Bet365 concession is clearly a smart play to cover horses like this early as the potential is obvious, especially given the trainer.
But as to whether any will end up as champion novices in March then I have my doubts, even though I've backed some of them.
Percentages tell you at least one of the big three male bumper horses Willie has got could pay off come march.

But I do think that speculative antepost plays in the novice hurdle division is a tricky one .
It was hard to get right from this far out last year, except for Samcro who was signposted by connections very early.

There's probably better races that suit long term approaches, like the arkle for example.