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Ballymore Novice Hurdle 2019

quevega said:
Tornado Flyer was very good today.
Pretty sure that Willie's got better though.
Not one for me at this stage.
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I think blackbow could be. But No guarantee he would join tornado flyer here though.

Anyone else in particular?
 
Not really, If I had to rank the bumper horses from last year, and the better ones get over bet anyway IMO.
I personally liked carefully selected the most, but blackbow and tornado could prove to be the better of course.

In my mind It's more often the case that horses down the field in the bumper do better the following season as a lot of trainers aren't training them for the champion bumper and are more interested in hurdlers and chasers in the long term.
 
Tornado Flyer
PP have gone 10/1 Ballymore and 12/1 Supreme
 
Tornado Flyer (4/9f) makes the perfect start over hurdles, as he takes the second at Punchestown under Ruby Walsh for Willie Mullins (3rd winner today). Mullins said: "Ruby said he was very keen. We'll look at Christmas and well look at the race (Grade 1) at Naas in January."



*"We think he's a really nice horse," Ruby Walsh
 
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quevega said:
Not really, If I had to rank the bumper horses from last year, and the better ones get over bet anyway IMO.
I personally liked carefully selected the most, but blackbow and tornado could prove to be the better of course.

In my mind It's more often the case that horses down the field in the bumper do better the following season as a lot of trainers aren't training them for the champion bumper and are more interested in hurdlers and chasers in the long term.
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Of all WP Mullins Champion Bumper Placed horse's and Punchestown Champion Bumper placed horses I can remember.
Only Champagne Fever has gone on to win a Novice hurdle the following season at cheltenham
Unless I've forgotten any ?
In fact I can only think of Al Ferof and Nicanor of any horses (trainer by anyone) placed in the two championship bumpers to go and win a novice the year after.
going back about 15 years or so is as far as my memory allows
 
quevega said:
Of all WP Mullins Champion Bumper Placed horse's and Punchestown Champion Bumper placed horses I can remember.
Only Champagne Fever has gone on to win a Novice hurdle the following season at cheltenham
Unless I've forgotten any ?
In fact I can only think of Al Ferof and Nicanor of any horses (trainer by anyone) placed in the two championship bumpers to go and win a novice the year after.
going back about 15 years or so is as far as my memory allows
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How many were as good as blackboe / tornado flyer. Carefully selected.

Nice horses a long way back. Each renewal is a separate race with different horses. Makes no difference what a completely different horse has done before.
 
Difficult to answer , except to say that it would be highly unlikely that they are the three best he has ever trained. Is it ?
 
Said it for some time now about the bumper runners at the festival going into novice hurdling. I'm not a fan overall, though some always seem to end up in my portfolio.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Said it for some time now about the bumper runners at the festival going into novice hurdling. I'm not a fan overall, though some always seem to end up in my portfolio.
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Yeah, every year it's the same :highly_amused:

It's hard to ignore though, you'd have to wait and be going purely on pedigree if you waiting for unraced hurdlers. Or get really into the PTP or French scene... not easy for everyone to do.
 
Scooby91 said:
How many were as good as blackboe / tornado flyer. Carefully selected.

Nice horses a long way back. Each renewal is a separate race with different horses. Makes no difference what a completely different horse has done before.
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Not talking about individual horses, just the Bumper races themselves as a pointer.
Some will strongly follow this form into Novice hurdling and good luck to them. All I'm saying is that I don't pay as much attention to it as some. It has paid over the years on occasions to ignore the overbet bumper horses and look for alternatives.

And when Willie throws half a dozen at these races it also suggests even he doesn't know who's the best.
 
I'm on TF at 25/1 for this. Was disappointed with his jumping I must say. But its early days. And he has certainly got an engine.
 
quevega said:
Not talking about individual horses, just the Bumper races themselves as a pointer.
Some will strongly follow this form into Novice hurdling and good luck to them. All I'm saying is that I don't pay as much attention to it as some. It has paid over the years on occasions to ignore the overbet bumper horses and look for alternatives.

And when Willie throws half a dozen at these races it also suggests even he doesn't know who's the best.
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I agree with you regarding the bumper horses, its road I travel every year and its not a profitable one however I feel this year we may have an exception. We have the french recruit in Annamix for the supreme and a very special crop of bumper horses which seemed to improve with every run.
 
Kevloaf said:
Yeah, every year it's the same :highly_amused:

It's hard to ignore though, you'd have to wait and be going purely on pedigree if you waiting for unraced hurdlers. Or get really into the PTP or French scene... not easy for everyone to do.
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Agree, it is not easy for everyone but places like this forum help massively with that and there is plenty of accessible information out there nowadays too :)

FWIW I think one of the bumper horses could actually come good this season in a novice hurdle, just not sure which horse/race.
 
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Or you just wait till they've run once or twice over hurdles before you place an antepost or NRNB bet.
Hard for many to do on here as there's a lot of big price glory hunters, and a distinct lack of patience and discipline. (with plenty of shrewdness and well thought out staking included amongst it all)
Myself included obviously.
 
quevega said:
Or you just wait till they've run once or twice over hurdles before you place an antepost or NRNB bet.
Hard for many to do on here as there's a lot of big price glory hunters, and a distinct lack of patience and discipline. (with plenty of shrewdness and well thought out staking included amongst it all)
Myself included obviously.
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Can't speak for everyone, but with the ammount I want to win, I can't afford for them to have a run first and take the lower price. Plus if you back before they shorten you can't lose as can always cash for money back if they bomb.
 
Scooby91 said:
Can't speak for everyone, but with the ammount I want to win, I can't afford for them to have a run first and take the lower price. Plus if you back before they shorten you can't lose as can always cash for money back if they bomb.
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Your first sentence don't make a lot of sense (for many reasons).
Your second sentence demonstrates what I said in brackets in the first place.
 
taylorch1990 said:
Don't think he jumps quick enough for the supreme. Ruby looked confident the whole way round but I wasn't blown away.
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It was his debut run, his jumping was fine, and surely with experience could become slicker.

Can't Catch Me said:
I'm on TF at 25/1 for this. Was disappointed with his jumping I must say. But its early days. And he has certainly got an engine.
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Agreed early days.

He was keen throughout + i think its very hard to know whether he'll go here or the Supreme, early days....doubt it'll ever be the 3miler but never know
 
quevega said:
Your first sentence don't make a lot of sense (for many reasons).
Your second sentence demonstrates what I said in brackets in the first place.
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Scooby does it for a living so I imagine he’s trying to win more than most, so whereas at times I’ve - at times - no issue with waiting for a run and taking 12/1 he can’t afford for a halving in price.
 
Scooby91 said:
Can't speak for everyone, but with the ammount I want to win, I can't afford for them to have a run first and take the lower price. Plus if you back before they shorten you can't lose as can always cash for money back if they bomb.
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For interest, how has your approach changed since 365 started this (last season)...

It's obviously incredibly fruitful now, and I'm right there doing it as much as I can, because I feel you can eliminate quite a lot of risk - but it's only recent, and if it does stop, what strategy will you go back to?
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
... and Brewin’upastorm, big day for my Ballymore bets
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Was happy with both Tornado Flyer and Brewin’upastorm today. Olly Murphy repeated again after the race that he is the best he has which takes on a bit more substance with the way Thomas Darby has started the season. Didn’t find his jumping totally convincing but jumped the last few well and certainly wasn’t stopping at the line which bodes well for this race. Murphy added the prep had not been easy this last 6 weeks and now he was up and running there would be plenty more to come.
 
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