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Arkle 2020

DenmanSacre said:
Probably thought he was the fastest horse in the UK after scorching Altior on the gallops... until they found out Altior was running with 3 legs
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Left Charli Parcs for dead.
 
The Arkle is well hard.

I've got
Notebook 50/1
Cash Back 33/1
Fakir 20/1
Brewin 15/1
Al Dancer 20/1 (added recently)

I thought I'd be thrilled to bits, but just checking the dangers:

Maire Banrigh is unbeaten, beat Thomas Darby who I really like, bang their on ratings, no nonsense kind of ride, jumps well.
Espirit Du Large form reads 211 and the last win was a Grade 1.
Global Citizen has some impressive hurdles form beating Silver Streak who placed in a CH and he won a Grade 2 last time beating two of todays rivals in Al Dancer and my next horse:
Rouge Vif - he beat Nube Negra further than Espirit Du Large did in the grade 1 .... however he got soundly beaten by:
Put The Kettle On who has a little bit to find on ratings but her form is an impressive looking 3111121, the latest the C&D grade 2 arkle trial in November.



So the only horse I can rule out winning the Arkle is Our Merlin :highly_amused:



I'm half tempted to cash Al Dancer again.
 
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Kevloaf said:
The Arkle is well hard.

I've got
Notebook 50/1
Cash Back 33/1
Fakir 20/1
Brewin 15/1
Al Dancer 20/1 (added recently)

I thought I'd be thrilled to bits, but just checking the dangers:

Maire Banrigh is unbeaten, beat Thomas Darby who I really like, bang their on ratings, no nonsense kind of ride, jumps well.
Espirit Du Large form reads 211 and the last win was a Grade 1.
Global Citizen has some impressive hurdles form beating Silver Streak who placed in a CH and he won a Grade 2 last time beating two of todays rivals in Al Dancer and my next horse:
Rouge Vif - he beat Nube Negra further than Espirit Du Large did in the grade 1 .... however he got soundly beaten by:
Put The Kettle On who has a little bit to find on ratings but her form is an impressive looking 3111121, the latest the C&D grade 2 arkle trial in November.



So the only horse I can rule out winning the Arkle is Our Merlin :highly_amused:



I'm half tempted to cash Al Dancer again.
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I can't bring myself to back and of these when they're shorter prices than the prices I have for the 4 ahead of them in the betting.

That was my thought process on 26th Feb#652 ..... so I'll stick to it now - hard though, those two mares are speaking to me
 
Kevloaf said:
I can't bring myself to back and of these when they're shorter prices than the prices I have for the 4 ahead of them in the betting.

That was my thought process on 26th Feb#652 ..... so I'll stick to it now - hard though, those two mares are speaking to me
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You have some great prices there. For me, this race comes down to whether you believe in the Irish form or not. I have been a sceptic all year and what put me over the edge was the frame by frame comparison of the Chacun Pour Soi and Notebook races at the DRF. CPS's race was significantly faster at every point of the race and by more than I would have thought explained by experienced versus novice chasers.
It will be a frenetic pace and, while Maire Banrigh has front run, she doesn't need to and that could make all of the difference. She jumps exceptionally well and that will allow her to maintain her position and be ready to pick up the pieces as she stays further.I watched her point win again yesterday and was reminded why she cost 320000. If it had have been genuine good to soft, she would have been my banker of the entire meeting; as is is, I still think she has a real chance.
 
Bayoffreedom said:
You have some great prices there. For me, this race comes down to whether you believe in the Irish form or not. I have been a sceptic all year and what put me over the edge was the frame by frame comparison of the Chacun Pour Soi and Notebook races at the DRF. CPS's race was significantly faster at every point of the race and by more than I would have thought explained by experienced versus novice chasers.
It will be a frenetic pace and, while Maire Banrigh has front run, she doesn't need to and that could make all of the difference. She jumps exceptionally well and that will allow her to maintain her position and be ready to pick up the pieces as she stays further.I watched her point win again yesterday and was reminded why she cost 320000. If it had have been genuine good to soft, she would have been my banker of the entire meeting; as is is, I still think she has a real chance.
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Very interesting.

I am so, so tempted to add the two Mares, I'm probably now in a position where because I've thought about it so much that I'd kick myself for not backing her, but not congratulate myself if I didn't back her and she didn't do anything :highly_amused:
 
Bayoffreedom said:
You have some great prices there. For me, this race comes down to whether you believe in the Irish form or not. I have been a sceptic all year and what put me over the edge was the frame by frame comparison of the Chacun Pour Soi and Notebook races at the DRF. CPS's race was significantly faster at every point of the race and by more than I would have thought explained by experienced versus novice chasers.
It will be a frenetic pace and, while Maire Banrigh has front run, she doesn't need to and that could make all of the difference. She jumps exceptionally well and that will allow her to maintain her position and be ready to pick up the pieces as she stays further.I watched her point win again yesterday and was reminded why she cost 320000. If it had have been genuine good to soft, she would have been my banker of the entire meeting; as is is, I still think she has a real chance.
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I believe the Irish form and think their stranglehold on this race will continue. I don't see Al Dancer or Rouge Vif reversing the form with PTKO (let alone the other Irish runners). Brewin is inexperienced and has already had Global's number. The two most interesting for me are the mare you mention and Esprit Du Large. I don't think the form of EDL's G1 win is up to much and the same can be said for Maire Banrigh's string of 1's (TD can't jump fences, other than that beaten nothing). The Irish runners at the top of the market look collectively strong. In recent years the Irish have had Footpad, Douvan and UDS as clear market leaders, whereas this year you have dual Grade 1 winner Notebook, Grade 1 winner Fakir and Cash Back (who is attracting support). They all have collectively better experience IMO at races run at a proper tempo like tomorrow, and I just think they will be too classy for our lot.
 
Going through the Arkle now to see if I've missed anything.

Horses that are going to contest the lead are potentially Cashback, FDD (if believing connections), MB, PTKO and Global Citizen. The pace is going to be furious.

Notebook has shown he can take a lead if required.

Rouge Vif is very keen. BUAS hasn't been seen for a while and may find this pace too much. Al Dancer is a dog.

Espirit Du Large's best form is right handed and Nube Negra, Grand Sancy and Torpillo have done nothing to show the form of the Henry 6th is to a decent standard, though the time was around 10 lengths slower thanthe Tingle Creek (not too bad, but I don;t think that race will prove to be strong).

I do think the Irish form is much the stronger.

Might be one for a bet in play once the race has taken shape at the front and see if one of the larger priced horses settles behind the pace instead of taking it on.
 
Bayoffreedom said:
You have some great prices there. For me, this race comes down to whether you believe in the Irish form or not. I have been a sceptic all year and what put me over the edge was the frame by frame comparison of the Chacun Pour Soi and Notebook races at the DRF. CPS's race was significantly faster at every point of the race and by more than I would have thought explained by experienced versus novice chasers.
It will be a frenetic pace and, while Maire Banrigh has front run, she doesn't need to and that could make all of the difference. She jumps exceptionally well and that will allow her to maintain her position and be ready to pick up the pieces as she stays further.I watched her point win again yesterday and was reminded why she cost 320000. If it had have been genuine good to soft, she would have been my banker of the entire meeting; as is is, I still think she has a real chance.
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Finally nice to see someone else on here who fancies Marie Banrigh in this. On e/w & in several multiples at better prices, even now will probs. still top up on her tomorrow.
 
Anyone not already on Notebook ?
The 3-1 and possibly bigger is very good value.
The best jumper in the race bar none. Will make a length or two on most of field at most fences.
Getting big weight pull with Fakir, and has beaten Cash Back (who is the biggest danger unless Fakir jumps perfect and at an even gallop)
The Irish have just got to go steady enough early on and not over do it that's all.

The British challengers look about as good as last year. Average.
For one of the Brits to get up here, they're going to have to jump out of their skins, or hope for a collapse (which could happen)
 
Seriously resisting the temptation to not pile in even further on Notebook, 3/1 is ridiculous.

The only negative people have is he played up at DRF, this is a one off, they will be using ear plugs and Rachel has said she will treat him differently in the parade ring to negate this.

Even with this he was going away from Cash back at DRF, Fakir has 7lbs and 2 lengths to find. Brewin is coming here of a set back and has never won anything above a class 3 in his career and if you were being honest with hindsight the form of his Aintree 2nd isn’t all that.
Espirit has beaten handicappers
Aside from Mairie the rest of the English can be covered by a small blanket which always suggests nothing is very special
 
Hurricane fly said:
Seriously resisting the temptation to not pile in even further on Notebook, 3/1 is ridiculous.

The only negative people have is he played up at DRF, this is a one off, they will be using ear plugs and Rachel has said she will treat him differently in the parade ring to negate this.

Even with this he was going away from Cash back at DRF, Fakir has 7lbs and 2 lengths to find. Brewin is coming here of a set back and has never won anything above a class 3 in his career and if you were being honest with hindsight the form of his Aintree 2nd isn’t all that.
Espirit has beaten handicappers
Aside from Mairie the rest of the English can be covered by a small blanket which always suggests nothing is very special
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I agree on notebook - definitely been be a decent bet for me tomorrow
 
Quevega said:
Anyone not already on Notebook ?
The 3-1 and possibly bigger is very good value.
The best jumper in the race bar none. Will make a length or two on most of field at most fences.
Getting big weight pull with Fakir, and has beaten Cash Back (who is the biggest danger unless Fakir jumps perfect and at an even gallop)
The Irish have just got to go steady enough early on and not over do it that's all.

The British challengers look about as good as last year. Average.
For one of the Brits to get up here, they're going to have to jump out of their skins, or hope for a collapse (which could happen)
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I'm quite surprised at an angle quite a few of the previews/podcasts have taken that the Irish aren't that much better.

I suppose I can't be confident either way, but one explaination as to why people thing the Irish aren't as strong this year is because the owners don't fit the profile?

People don't think about 2milers for Gigginstown, and it's pretty much a given that the 'wrong colours' for Mullins can often take longer to gain a fan base.

Even the very well known JP silks, aren't familar for many in this race?



Probably nothing in that at all, but I just feel like "the racing public" haven't got one they can get behind?
 
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