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Arkle 2020

Notebook 100/30 with William Hill and Unibet. Shorter on the exchanges.
 
Fancied Notebook from fucking yesteryear but why is it Cheltenham eve Im starting to doubt myself and like everything else in the race?
 
Kevloaf said:
Did the same in the Ballymore (or similar) didn't he.
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Sometimes when you pre empt what may happen on the way down is counterpreductive to the way you see the outcome.
Earplugs could see a different animal.
 
Watching Day One back today, just posting some thoughts on each race now the dust has settled. First time I've watched the Arkle back since the day.

It didn't looked like a good Arkle before the race, but I'd upgrade it on reflection given how the first two have put a big gap back to 3rd,. 4th and 5th in Rouge Vif, Al Dancer and Global Citizen, and whilst none of them are top draw, circa 20 lengths clear of them means you have to be good.

Put The Kettle On was really good. She jumped really well, was absolutely fine matching Cash Back. There is the stat about UDS being the only horse to make all in the Arkle, and while she clearly didn't make all, she's the next best thing to it. A lovely uncomplicated ride and she's now 2/2 at Cheltenham over 2m (backed - see #99 )

I think the mistake Fakir D'oudaries made two out was arguably the reason he didn't win... however, when he does get to within a length of her, she pulls away again up the hill and that's a very promising attribute. In a rematch I'd like to see how much that's factored in. I definitely like Fakir going forward too, and would have him on my mind for the QMCC next year too. I just have a little niggle that he might be tried up in trip at some point again. He's one I may use free bets on at 25/1 if I ever end up getting any again :applause:

No interest in anything in behind really in terms of Cheltenham targets. Cash Back and Notebook were the two I fancied most going into the race. Was confident the Irish would take the Arkle and have no real interest in any of the British horses going forward.

Brewin'upastorm in particular in a horse who is now in the over rated camp and will need to be forgotten in the market before I chanced him. I think the trainer gave him a very poor campaign, he had nowhere near enough experience going in to the race and making race ending mistake can't just be chalked up as bad luck. Novice Chasers need to be out novice chasing if they're going to learn the art of jumping around a race track under race conditions.
 
Nice write up Kev. I’m in agreement about the nagging doubt around Fakir’s target and I also have the same issue with PTKO who is as short as 6/1 (10s biggest, 8s with PP) for the Mares Chase. She’s won a few times over 2 and a half furlongs so don’t think the extra distance would put her off (understanding the Mares Chase is that distance). Interestingly I’ve only just realised she raced all through last summer which is unusual for a Festival winner.

Anyway anyone have any thoughts on why the Mares is a less likely target than the CC apart from the latter being a much more important race?
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
Nice write up Kev. I’m in agreement about the nagging doubt around Fakir’s target and I also have the same issue with PTKO who is as short as 6/1 (10s biggest, 8s with PP) for the Mares Chase. She’s won a few times over 2 and a half furlongs so don’t think the extra distance would put her off (understanding the Mares Chase is that distance). Interestingly I’ve only just realised she raced all through last summer which is unusual for a Festival winner.

Anyway anyone have any thoughts on why the Mares is a less likely target than the CC?
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The owners could have had a run with her (and easier race?) in the Novice Handicap Chase on the same day and shot for the stars and it paid off... using that as my logic, there isn't much chance they decide to pop the Arkle winner in a Grade 2 Mares Chase when she's a 2x C&D winner, including the Arkle.
 
I've made the point before but I'd certainly be willing to give Global Citizen another chance. Badly hampered by the fall of Maire Banrig but worked his way back into contention turning in. Ultimately he tired up the hill having spent up too much energy to get back into the race. But without being hampered he could have ended up very close to the front 2 though I doubt he'd have beaten them.
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
Nice write up Kev. I’m in agreement about the nagging doubt around Fakir’s target and I also have the same issue with PTKO who is as short as 6/1 (10s biggest, 8s with PP) for the Mares Chase. She’s won a few times over 2 and a half furlongs so don’t think the extra distance would put her off (understanding the Mares Chase is that distance). Interestingly I’ve only just realised she raced all through last summer which is unusual for a Festival winner.

Anyway anyone have any thoughts on why the Mares is a less likely target than the CC apart from the latter being a much more important race?
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I've said in here before, why would your long term/12 months target be a race of lower grade than the one you've just won ?

No-one knows the conditions of the new race or whether it'll be run on the Old or New course, which can have a significant impact horses, and I get the feeling the bookies have simply taken the best horses that qualify and included them in the market when the reality is none will run, after all Honeysuckle and Benie des Dieux are prominent in the betting.

Having won the 'championship' novice race against the boys, If I owned PTKO I'd have my sights set firmly on the top events and not a grade lower against her own sex...
 
The only reason PTKO might go for the new race is to go down in history as the inaugural winner. In any case, they probably realise that they won't beat a fit Robin De Carlow over the extra distance.
 
archie said:
The only reason PTKO might go for the new race is to go down in history as the inaugural winner. In any case, they probably realise that they won't beat a fit Robin De Carlow over the extra distance.
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Another one you have shares in? If so why hasn't she made a festival yet out of curiosity?
 
taylorch1990 said:
I've made the point before but I'd certainly be willing to give Global Citizen another chance. Badly hampered by the fall of Maire Banrig but worked his way back into contention turning in. Ultimately he tired up the hill having spent up too much energy to get back into the race. But without being hampered he could have ended up very close to the front 2 though I doubt he'd have beaten them.
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I’m not sure this horse really wants Cheltenham. He did run pretty well considering though. I think his big season target will be the grade 2 Desert Orchid chase at kempton. Another possibility is the Tingle Creek as it could cut up to a handful of runners and its big prize money, but it’s only around 3 weeks before the Desert Orchid so it could be left alone. With the big players likely to go for the Tingle it will leave the door open for the Desert Orchid.
 
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