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Arkle 2020

I may get shot down for the but when Twiston Davies speaks out for one of his horses he’s usually good for his word. I think his confidence around Al Dancer will ring true, I think he will win convincingly today and be near the top of the market for the Arkle in March.
 
The King Pimm said:
I may get shot down for the but when Twiston Davies speaks out for one of his horses he’s usually good for his word. I think his confidence around Al Dancer will ring true, I think he will win convincingly today and be near the top of the market for the Arkle in March.
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I'm expecting him to be top of the market by 14:45 today! :devilish:
 
Snap, I don't think he'll be good enough to win an Arkle, but the trading opportunity is there!
 
I genuinely think he does and with Sam back riding for his Dad’s big horses I think the Twiston Davies clan are going to have a very profitable season with a few big scalps :triumphant:
 
al dancer could win today as the race lacks depth.
But I thought he was average last season and the connections deluded when they thought he would win supreme and then champion hurdle after winning the worst betfair hurdle in history.
He won't get near winning an arkle IMO.
high 140's horse for me.
 
I think I maybe a bit deluded myself but he’s my biggest antepost bet for next years Festival so getting a bit excited that 33’s might be a good investment
 
I’m all over Al Dancer today......but I just don’t think he’s a proper Grade 1 horse so would be disappointed if he won an Arkle, however it does look a weak year again and at this (very early) stage anything winning wouldn’t be a surprise
 
quevega said:
al dancer could win today as the race lacks depth.
But I thought he was average last season and the connections deluded when they thought he would win supreme and then champion hurdle after winning the worst betfair hurdle in history.
He won't get near winning an arkle IMO.
high 140's horse for me.
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Beating the 156 rated getaway trump who's the joint leader or 2nd fav for the arkle, who was crusing on the bit in the same challow where brewinupastorm was comfortably beaten.

not a good enough opener?

Should he manage to do so.
 
It's a decent enough opener alright, but Getaway Trumps rating is absolute tosh (despite it somehow being correct)!

He has to beat GT well though IMO, and I fully expect him to tbh.

Also, there is no way they should be that far apart in the Arkle market.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
It's a decent enough opener alright, but Getaway Trumps rating is absolute tosh (despite it somehow being correct)!

He has to beat GT well though IMO, and I fully expect him to tbh.

Also, there is no way they should be that far apart in the Arkle market.
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Getaway Trumps official rating is tosh? Surely winning a valuable handicap off top weight would give the assessor a decent chance of giving him an accurate mark?

If it needed further proof then the 5th horse home in that race (Flash Of Steel btn 7.5 lengths) came out and won the Silver Trophy Handicap at Chepstow and has been raised 8lbs himself for that.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
If it needed further proof then the 5th horse home in that race (Flash Of Steel btn 7.5 lengths) came out and won the Silver Trophy Handicap at Chepstow and has been raised 8lbs himself for that.
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We can talk back form all day tbh.

He was beat by Al Dancer by 6 3/4 lengths giving 1lb, Al Dancer was hammered in the Supreme, of course the excuses came for that, but it is still collateral form. Galvin, who got beat by GT by 6 lengths at Ayr off levels was hammered in the Ballymore. His final start at Sandown, the most recent bit of form we have, the one where you use Flash Of Steel as an example, well the 2nd, Harambe, was 31 lengths behind Thyme Hill, having all that experience behind him, and the 3rd, Humble Hero, was on the verge of getting a hiding by a first time out horse before unfortunately falling. I have more examples if you need them. The top end races the form doesn't hold up, yet he somehow finds himself within a 1lb of Klassical Dream.

Not one single horse Getaway Trump has beat over 2 miles would I consider a Grade 1 festival winner in waiting. We've been through this before, but Nicholls has been a genius in his placing of the horse, and I admire him for that.

His best for is the Challow run, by some distance, but he got outpaced by a 3 miler that day too!

I'm backing him with free bets for the JLT, because I think that is his correct race, and if he turns up in the Arkle I'm leaving him well alone, even if he somehow manages to hammer Al Dancer today, which I think is unlikely.
 
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You seem to be very emotional about Getaway Trump, even more than a backer :highly_amused:

Horses are not machines so it is right that collateral form needs interpreting and sometimes dismissing entirely. Of course the horses he beat are not Grade 1 festival winners as it was a handicap and they're weighted accordingly.

Was he outpaced in the Challow or out stayed?
 
:highly_amused::highly_amused: I wasn't that involved in him until I saw them bloody ratings, and it annoys me when they are inflated, which I think his one is! I actually think it's embarrassing that they have him that high tbh.

You are right about collateral form though, every race is different.

Didn't just re-watch the Challow but the wording I saw (from memory, though sure it still stands) is that he was outpaced.

I remember seeing an interview some time ago with Nicholls and he said the handicapper seems to give him harsh ratings (obviously he is going to say that anyway), when he was talking about one of his older chasers, so no surprise he is as high as he is I guess.
 
I agree the more successful trainers potentially get hammered by the handicapper but when they win off those marks in competitive races, what can he do? Trumpy was top weight off a mark of 147 and won comfortably by the best part of 3 lengths. The handicapper put him up to 155 which may seem high but I can see the justification.
 
Yeah I do get that, but then something is clearly amiss with the handicapping then.

The thing that get's me is that he can be rated higher than say Champ for winning handicaps, and Champ has won two Grade 1's (beating GT in one of them) and placed in one too, they're doing a massive disservice to the game if they are ranking handicap wins better than Graded races. Which is why I think it's embarrassing.
 
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The official ratings of novices is tricky as the best will probably never run in a handicap until they’re on the decline.
 
Graded Races and Handicaps are often different tests. You could see Graded winners struggling to win of their rating in a handicap, due to possibly larger fields, stronger pace. Equally a horse rated high from handicap success may struggle when put into Graded races against a group of high rated horses.

Its one of the most interesting parts of the better quality racing, when horses move from one to the other.

I am not a GT fan for Grade 1 races yet, but that is probably because he hasn't had a lot of exposure in them. I am willing to change view, when the evidence is there in these early season Graded races though.
 
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Basically the Betfair hurdle form all over again!

Both up in trip this season, I'm sure of it, and Trump couldn't even beat Not That Fuisse
 
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