Arkle 2020

[Kevloaf]

His form was franked by good boy bobby & midnight shadow

Good Boy Bobby's form is alright.... but he beat Ravenhill Road who I think will end up a stayer, and then he was beaten at the intermediate trip...







My point is, Brewin is being over rated because of absence.

 

[Stormy Antarctic]

I’m quite keen on the angle of Bapaume staying on to win after a blistering pace being set. Could’ve been Faugheen Machine that said in the JLT thread after I said I liked him for that. It was mentioned long before Paul Kealy made his big shout about it anyway!

 

[TCH29]

Gotcha!


Was losing my head then :highly_amused:

But you’re still ignoring my logic, Kev. The win over SS and subsequent form your judging is not like for like form AT ALL.

Different distances, for a start! And then when FdE best SS, he did so carrying 12lbs less by 11lbs (admittedly cruising).

That doesn’t make him 7lbs better than Brewin’ as you allude!

Especially as Brewin beat SS by 4L carrying 6lbs more! And Brewin beat him over 2m2f; the Arkle is obviously shorter.

In Brewin’s one chase run at 2m he beat standard time. Find me another Arkle runner who’s done that this season? Go back to his novice hurdling, and his best times were at 2m not 2m4f.

I cannot see how you can apply any logic and be so dismissive about his chances in a 2 mile chase.

 

[Kevloaf]

I’m quite keen on the angle of Bapaume staying on to win after a blistering pace being set. Could’ve been Faugheen Machine that said in the JLT thread after I said I liked him for that. It was mentioned long before Paul Kealy made his big shout about it anyway!

Yeah, FM big fan.

He's got a poster of him above his bed I've heard.

 

[TCH29]

Good Boy Bobby's form is alright.... but he beat Ravenhill Road who I think will end up a stayer, and then he was beaten at the intermediate trip...







My point is, Brewin is being over rated because of absence.

Read my post above...absolutely not how i’m viewing him or “over rating” him.

 

[Ray]

Thats too literal, it was a true running at the time i would say and now the extra half mile has brought improvement to midnight shadow regardless of being beaten by champ before falling, no shame in that, but regardless still does well for brewins form and good boy bobby has boosted that so if them 2 horses cN improve then brewin can and you would have to say hes a leading candidate for the english?

 

[Quevega]

It was discussed at the time.
But watching Brewins first run again would help some people.
He was gently ridden and did really well to get up considering how late Johnson left it, and how much ground he had to make up.
Worth far more than the winning D IMO

Not a championship pace race, but a classy finish from him.

 

[Stormy Antarctic]

Ha! Brilliant. I’d be tempted to have one too if the Mrs could be persuaded. Reckon she’s more of a Jason Donovan girl herself though

 

[Ray]

It was discussed at the time.
But watching Brewins first run again would help some people.
He was gently ridden and did really well to get up considering how late Johnson left it, and how much ground he had to make up.
Worth far more than the winning D IMO

Thats what impressed me, then afterwards the trainer said he was suprised at the win considering they felt the horse wasnt ready for a run

 

[Kevloaf]

But you’re still ignoring my logic, Kev. The win over SS and subsequent form your judging is not like for like form AT ALL.

Different distances, for a start! And then when FdE best SS, he did so carrying 12lbs less by 11lbs (admittedly cruising).

That doesn’t make him 7lbs better than Brewin’ as you allude!

Especially as Brewin beat SS by 4L carrying 6lbs more! And Brewin beat him over 2m2f; the Arkle is obviously shorter.

In Brewin’s one chase run at 2m he beat standard time. Find me another Arkle runner who’s done that this season? Go back to his novice hurdling, and his best times were at 2m not 2m4f.

I cannot see how you can apply any logic and be so dismissive about his chances in a 2 mile chase.

No I know it's not like for like, it was just very quick. :highly_amused:



All I've said is he's been over rated by standing in his box, and he's got no Arkle winning form in the book therefore ISN'T a good bet at 14/1

That's not dismissive, it's saying he's not good value based on his form.... and the fact he's NOT running is being used as a positive, when it's not.

 

[Kevloaf]

Thats too literal, it was a true running at the time i would say and now the extra half mile has brought improvement to midnight shadow regardless of being beaten by champ before falling, no shame in that, but regardless still does well for brewins form and good boy bobby has boosted that so if them 2 horses cN improve then brewin can and you would have to say hes a leading candidate for the english?

Leading candidate for the English in this race is moot for me.

Of the UK horses I have only got Fanion D'estruval backed (and now wish I didn't).... and I expect this race to go to Ireland.



Worrying about which the best UK horse is, is moot.

 

[Ray]

Oh i agree, its notebooks time.

 

[Quevega]

Oh i agree, its notebooks time.

:highly_amused:
Think this is where we started.

 

[Kevloaf]

2.10 Arkle Chase	Fakir D'oudairies		20/1
2.10 Arkle Chase	Fanion D'estruval		32/1
2.10 Arkle Chase	Fanion D'estruval		33/1
2.10 Arkle Chase	Fanion D'estruval - place		2/1
2.10 Arkle Chase	Fanion D'estruval - place		5/2
2.10 Arkle Chase	Tornado Flyer		33/1
2.10 Arkle Chase	Cash Back		33/1
2.10 Arkle Chase	Notebook		50/1
2.10 Arkle Chase	Bapaume		25/1
2.10 Arkle Chase	Melon		25/1
2.10 Arkle Chase	Melon		21/1

<tbody>
</tbody>

I didn't realise how much I don't like the English horses

 

[TCH29]

Thats what impressed me, then afterwards the trainer said he was suprised at the win considering they felt the horse wasnt ready for a run

We’re on the same page here, Ray.

Murphy got him wrong last year. He’s a 2 miler not a 2m4f horse.

His form through SS to FdE puts him significantly better than FdE on level weights.

His first run, when supposedly not fit, was quicker than standard on his chase debut! That is so rare!

Who else has beat standard or run sub 4min over 2 miles novice chasing? Who had form that puts him significantly better than 2 horses rated 148 (Midnight Shadow) and 150 (FdE)?

How can you say 14/1 isn’t value? You may not think he’ll win, but not sure how you can logically knock that reasoning.

 

[TCH29]

No I know it's not like for like, it was just very quick. :highly_amused:



All I've said is he's been over rated by standing in his box, and he's got no Arkle winning form in the book therefore ISN'T a good bet at 14/1

That's not dismissive, it's saying he's not good value based on his form.... and the fact he's NOT running is being used as a positive, when it's not.

I’m not using at as a positive. I got on after his debut. No one is using that argument; you’re putting up a straw man there, mate.

His Arkle form IS his debut win, his form through Midnight Shadow and Fanion, and his 4th in the Ballymore when it’s the wrong distance for him.


Look, he obviously may not win, but to argue 14/1 isn’t value even. Ow, when only 10 odd horses will run and there is the form above does seem pretty churlish.

 

[Kevloaf]

We’re on the same page here, Ray.

Murphy got him wrong last year. He’s a 2 miler not a 2m4f horse.

His form through SS to FdE puts him significantly better than FdE on level weights.

His first run, when supposedly not fit, was quicker than standard on his chase debut! That is so rare!

Who else has beat standard or run sub 4min over 2 miles novice chasing? Who had form that puts him significantly better than 2 horses rated 148 (Midnight Shadow) and 150 (FdE)?

How can you say 14/1 isn’t value? You may not think he’ll win, but not sure how you can logically knock that reasoning.

It's easy to say 14/1 isn't value?!

I'm not sure why you keep going on about him being quicker than standard?
On Un De Sceaux's first completed chase start he was slow by 15.9 seconds - won the arkle
On Altior's first chase start he won by 63L and was slow by 20.6 seconds
On Footpad's, slow by 37.6 seconds...


So yeah, it's rare, but so what?!

 

[Ray]

If he stays at that price on the day ill be having a little go EW... kevloaf can f**k himself :highly_amused:

 

[Kevloaf]

I’m not using at as a positive. I got on after his debut. No one is using that argument; you’re putting up a straw man there, mate.

His Arkle form IS his debut win, his form through Midnight Shadow and Fanion, and his 4th in the Ballymore when it’s the wrong distance for him.


Look, he obviously may not win, but to argue 14/1 isn’t value even. Ow, when only 10 odd horses will run and there is the form above does seem pretty churlish.

14/1 would be shorter than any horse I've backed in it

and he DOESN'T have the best chance of winning



So 14/1 might be value for you, but with my book - it's clearly not?

 

[Kevloaf]

If he stays at that price on the day ill be having a little go EW... kevloaf can f**k himself :highly_amused:

Well I hope we get to see him before the day....

Be very impressive to win it after last running in November at Taunton.