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Arkle 2019

Faugheen_Machine said:
I know he's had his problems over the last season or so but Campeador interests me for this race.

Back in 2016 he was going to win the Fred Winter off 141 before a heavy fall at the last hurdle. He came back to the track in the December off a mark of 142 and had the race at his mercy before taking another heavy fall at the last and resulted in him missing the rest of the season.

The following season he took a race at Punchestown before falling again, this time in the Morgiana, and he hasn't been seen since finishing a distant third in the Ryanair hurdle last Christmas.

He has an Irish hurdles rating of 150 and this makes him one of the highest rated two milers to go chasing this season. He is definitely talented but also has head full of spanners so he might not take too fences at all......but if he does, he might just be a player in what looks like being an open renewal at this stage.

As an aside, he is owned by JP so he might just be given a gentle introduction, with an eye on some of the lucrative handicaps in the spring.

I've requested price for the Arkle and Any Race markets, with the any race market being my preferred bet at this stage.
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Had 0.5pt at 40/1 and 1pt at 25/1 for any race.
 
Scooby91 said:
Its a tough one. Wheres the money coming from, the yard, or Should he be 16s today and everyone thinks there being clever knowing his historic runners in the race? When his intended runners aren't ready yet.

We'll soon find out.
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Well that answers that one. A back marker from the supreme wins it. Jetz went well, he'll be pretty nice over alot further
 
Yep. none of them will win the arkle i'd imagine.
Duca de Thaix being campaigned with a handicap in mind I reckon, especially if he goes up to 2m 4f
 
Well that went as badly as it could have :highly_amused:
 
Scooby91 said:
Well that answers that one. A back marker from the supreme wins it. Jetz went well, he'll be pretty nice over alot further
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Agree on Jetz- just a pity he takes such a strong hold throughout his races considering he's a stayer- had Robbie Power's arms pulled off him most of the way. One to keep on side of i suspect.
 
jack1092 said:
Agree on Jetz- just a pity he takes such a strong hold throughout his races considering he's a stayer- had Robbie Power's arms pulled off him most of the way. One to keep on side of i suspect.
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I had thought he was from same family as Jezki, Jetson etc who all made better hurdlers but seems only the initial ownership is in common. Looked good for a long way yesterday.
 
mayo said:
I had thought he was from same family as Jezki, Jetson etc who all made better hurdlers but seems only the initial ownership is in common. Looked good for a long way yesterday.
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He is Mayo. His dam is a sister to Jezki and Jetson.
 
As Kalashnikov is the favourite, time to start looking for negatives....

Sam Spinner took a bit of a bashing about his chances due to the jockey (justifiably?)

Jack Quinlan has had 9 rides at Cheltenham - 0 wins (0%) and 1 place (Kalashnikov).

Wins Runs % 2nd 3rd 4ths winnings total earnings £1 Stake
Hurdle 50 579 9 54 60 70 £294,268 £481,792 -185.54
Chase 31 199 16 26 25 30 £222,247 £309,323 -39.11
NHF 10 106 9 8 7 8 £19,706 £28,774 +24.75
TOTAL 91 884 10 88 92 108 £536,222 £819,889 -199.90

Pretty poor strike rate overall of 10%?

One high profile win, on Kalashnikov in the Betfair Hurdle (can't recall any others - hard to look up?)
Does Jack Quinlan fill you with confidence? Is the great relationship he has with the horse enough to gloss over the fact he just doesn't have the experience to get a big race like the Arkle right? Does anyone care at all?


You aren't born with experience so very unfair for me to knock him, but I do feel like AMy Murphy is the up-and-coming trainer, and I Don't feel like Jack Quinlan is on the same trajectory?
 
Yes Kev, i can see the angle- but having ridden him fine in the Supreme, i would be willing to let it slide. For all, he isn't my selection at the min, but if he was!
 
Henderson seems adamant Claimantakinforgan is a 2 miler. He has others for the JLT so would make sense this is his Arkle horse.
 
Kevloaf said:
As Kalashnikov is the favourite, time to start looking for negatives....

Sam Spinner took a bit of a bashing about his chances due to the jockey (justifiably?)

Jack Quinlan has had 9 rides at Cheltenham - 0 wins (0%) and 1 place (Kalashnikov).

Wins Runs % 2nd 3rd 4ths winnings total earnings £1 Stake
Hurdle 50 579 9 54 60 70 £294,268 £481,792 -185.54
Chase 31 199 16 26 25 30 £222,247 £309,323 -39.11
NHF 10 106 9 8 7 8 £19,706 £28,774 +24.75
TOTAL 91 884 10 88 92 108 £536,222 £819,889 -199.90

Pretty poor strike rate overall of 10%?

One high profile win, on Kalashnikov in the Betfair Hurdle (can't recall any others - hard to look up?)
Does Jack Quinlan fill you with confidence? Is the great relationship he has with the horse enough to gloss over the fact he just doesn't have the experience to get a big race like the Arkle right? Does anyone care at all?


You aren't born with experience so very unfair for me to knock him, but I do feel like AMy Murphy is the up-and-coming trainer, and I Don't feel like Jack Quinlan is on the same trajectory?
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Funny this, cos I looked at this the other day, and the trainer's record. Jack's chase record is actually significantly better than his hurdles.

Jack's career chase results summary below
Runs Wins Places
Chase 261 37 35 £231,170 14.18% -£76.54 =all time

Other high profile jockeys (last 12 months only as fairer sample of runners)
see if you can guess who they are -
Easy clues = One's stable jockey for Henderson, one for Elliott and the other has a Mcmanus retainer. Obviously all would have sat on better horses, I would assume.

Chase 117 20 20 £258,839 17.09% -£37.44 = last 12 months
Chase 128 32 24 £872,871 25% -£23.32 = last 12 months
Chase 150 26 32 £85,4252 17.33% -£41.45 = last 12 months

I ended up thinking both trainer and jockey weren't doing bad so it wouldn't influence me too much.
 
billymag said:
Potentially I could see Willie having two or three better, Gordon having two better, Nicky having one better, plus all the other British and Irish trainers, the chance of him getting injured or loss of form, he has the option of the JLT, the worst price of the festival, in my opinion. Im not saying it wasnt a nice introduction and he was fine, its a price thing, Im genuinely stunned they have shortened him and as a result Ive put a £50 lay in at 6/1 on betfair. #moneywherebigmouthis
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Ha Ha I love this !., Your'e a Legend Billymag !!.:highly_amused:
 
boopa said:
Henderson seems adamant Claimantakinforgan is a 2 miler. He has others for the JLT so would make sense this is his Arkle horse.
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Let grech and parking know on Twitter they'll have to make a cover bet for the arkle.
 
Scooby91 said:
Let grech and parking know on Twitter they'll have to make a cover bet for the arkle.
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How big is their bet for the JLT?

What is he wins impressively on Sunday, is he still JLT bound?
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
How big is their bet for the JLT?

What is he wins impressively on Sunday, is he still JLT bound?
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He's jlt bound.
I wouldn't put anyone of backing arkle if that's what they think. But I'd take it with 365.
 
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