• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Arkle 2019

billymag

billymag

Member
Joined
Aug 31, 2016
Messages
1,578
Reaction score
130
Points
63
Anyone got any suggestions who might run in this, I accept Kalshnikov cud run but struggling to find one i think will run, it looks ready made for a bet if I can find one.
Melon and Mengali Khan could be possibles but anyone got any other suggestions

Cheers
 
It's an uninspiring list when you go through them on Oddschecker.
 
Laurina would be the one that stands out at 14-1...

Be interesting to hear what Willie says about her in any upcoming stable tours.
 
The Mullins stable tour is usually towards the end of October which fits in with the winter horses coming back in around Galway time.

I've never really felt the love for Mengli Khan and Paloma Blue. End of season form makes Draconien an interesting project but I don't have a clue which path he will take.
 
I had originally though Kalashnikov would have gone up in trip and end up contesting the JLT (where the 25/1 is huge) but the more I look at the market, the more I think otherwise, particularly when you focus in on the English horses. I don't think there's any doubt he will be tried over 2 miles in his first start(s) and when you factor in who could be contesting the key English trials against him...

Vision Des Flos
Defi Du Seuil
Claimantakinforgan
Charli Parcs
Vision Des Flos
Slate House

I struggle to see him having too much to fear in that group and that would be clutching at straws for opposition (at least this far out with many plans unknown). Unless he does a Finians Oscar and gets taken off his feet over 2 miles (seems unlikely as he's only contested races over that trip in his career to date, where as Finians Oscar ran mainly over further with just 2 weak 2 mile runs to his name) I can see them keeping him at 2 miles and aiming for this race as i'm not sure the races prior to the festival will force their hand to step him up.
Anyone who got the 14/1 for Kalashnikov is in a potentially good position already.

You'd hope one of the Tizzard horses could make a decent claim to at least feature.

He looked gone at the game last year and I'm loathe to use his juvenile form as a reason to back but clutching at straws...Defi Du Seuil...IF Hobbs could get him right again this season at 33/1? The Arkle was touted last season where I think he was 10/1 joint fav for much of the summer but they decided to stay hurdling. After last season it wouldn't surprise me to see them try their luck over fences with him - especially as he's somehow still rated 157 over hurdles which probably takes the idea of handicap out of the window imo. Hobbs had a horrible season last year where he had just the 63 winners (lowest # winners since 12/13, lowest prize money since 98/99). Couldn't touch him right now but i'm keen to hear the vibes coming out of the stable and what the plan is with him. Could be one to back during his seasonal debut if he is running well during the race.

The Irish divison is definately deeper but even then there's probably not too many jumping out bar the obvious (MK and PB) if the suggestions that both Samcro and Laurina will bypass the race :grumpy:

The hope would be Footpad came out of the blue last year to dominate the 2mile novice chase division. Can't remember many if anyone flagging him up this time last year.

One thing for sure I'm pretty sure we'll be having a single digit field size once again come March!
 
Last edited:
Going through the market, here’s my thoughts:
Samcro 7/1 - Won’t Run. JLT/CH bound.
Kalshnikov 8/1 - 50/50. Here or JLT.
Melon 12/1 - Won’t Run. CH bound.
Laurina 14/1 - Probably won’t run. Had a few quid for her at 14s but suspect she will go Mares Hurdle.
Summerville Boy 20/1 - Won’t Run. CH bound.
Black OP 20/1 - Probably won’t Run. JLT most likely.
If The Cap Fits 20/1 - Probably wont run. CH bound.
Getabird 25/1 - I think he will Run. Not reliable enough for me to back though.
Mengli Khan 25/1 - Will Run. Going chasing over 2m this season. Most certain of any to run. Decent yardstick.
Defi De Seuill 25/1 - 50/50. No idea what’s up with the horse last season. Dangerous if back to beat.



So that leaves only Mengli Khan as a definite in my opinion based on trainer comments. I expect Getabird to go here too but that’s onky a hunch. Laurina and Kalashnikov would be favourites if sent here and Samcro goes to elsewhere (as is expected).

Even at this stage, it looks like it could end up being a smallish field again.
 
Middle_Of_March said:
Going through the market, here’s my thoughts:
Samcro 7/1 - Won’t Run. JLT/CH bound.
Kalshnikov 8/1 - 50/50. Here or JLT.
Melon 12/1 - Won’t Run. CH bound.
Laurina 14/1 - Probably won’t run. Had a few quid for her at 14s but suspect she will go Mares Hurdle.
Summerville Boy 20/1 - Won’t Run. CH bound.
Black OP 20/1 - Probably won’t Run. JLT most likely.
If The Cap Fits 20/1 - Probably wont run. CH bound.
Getabird 25/1 - I think he will Run. Not reliable enough for me to back though.
Mengli Khan 25/1 - Will Run. Going chasing over 2m this season. Most certain of any to run. Decent yardstick.
Defi De Seuill 25/1 - 50/50. No idea what’s up with the horse last season. Dangerous if back to beat.



So that leaves only Mengli Khan as a definite in my opinion based on trainer comments. I expect Getabird to go here too but that’s onky a hunch. Laurina and Kalashnikov would be favourites if sent here and Samcro goes to elsewhere (as is expected).

Even at this stage, it looks like it could end up being a smallish field again.
Click to expand...

I really like defi when a juvenile, not sure on having the frame and scope to jump fences thou... seeing defi in person never gave me the impressive of a fences type
 
thistlecracker said:
I really like defi when a juvenile, not sure on having the frame and scope to jump fences thou... seeing defi in person never gave me the impressive of a fences type
Click to expand...

I was a big fan of him as a juvenile too. Still find it funny (in hindsight) that many preferred Charli Parcs over him for the triumph pretty much all year.

He looked lost last year so it might not matter where he runs tbh.
 
We’ve covered this many times but if Defi was to win an Arkle he would have to be one of the most talented and versatile horses in history.
horses who have the extreme stamina needed to get the extended hill over 17f on the New Course as 4 year olds are extremely unlikely to have the speed needed to win an Arkle on the much easier/speedier Old Course over 16f, so he’s one I’d scrub immediately.
Menglai Khan would appeal most at the prices...
 
I like Menglia but. I backed it for any race and still think there’s a lurker out there but can’t find it YET. But I hope I do :)
 
The question was asked elsewhere in the forum about e/w antepost bets

This is a race I would happily justify it in the Dec/January area

Would struggle to believe you’d bet getting bet than 1/4 odds 3 places
 
Thanks guys pretty much summed up what i was thinking, Mengli khan looking like the bet. Its on record how he would love the chance to run on better ground and 25/1 against Kalashnikov who is 10/1 and looks 60/40 to run at best, and there was less than 2 lengths between them. Arkle often a small field so will do him ew. Thanks again
 
jono said:
You'd hope one of the Tizzard horses could make a decent claim to at least feature.
Click to expand...

This is where my money is currently going. I have used the 'Any Race' market for 4 of the Tizzard novice chasers, Vision Des Flos (who I really like), Slate House, Lostintranslation & Kilbricken Storm.

I feel, Kilbricken Storm & Slate House aside, the other 2 were messed around with regards to trip last season, Vision Des Flos' best performances were over shorter, so feel he will go Arkle/JLT route, I'm hoping Arkle personally, and Lostintranslation's best performance was @ Aintree, trying 2m 4f for the first time, finishing 3/4 length off Black Op, who in turn finished 2 3/4 2nd to Samcro @ Cheltenham, which is the form I am currently looking for/at.

Despite the solid efforts last season of the 4 mentioned above, each one of them looked like a chaser in the making, so expect improvement for going over fences.

As this is the Arkle thread I'd probably say Slate House / Vision Des Flos would be my current bets, until we know what is happening with the others, though have backed both 'Any Race' to cover the eventuality of them both not running in this race too.
 
I've already mentioned before that I am a fan of Mengli Khan and I'm already on him at 25/1. Better ground at the festival this year would've seen him come much closer, I recently re-watched the Supreme and as they come onto the hill he just looked so well placed but just couldn't go up the gears properly on that ground.

Slate House interests me, he's another one I think the poor winter didn't help out!

I have to agree with the consensus thought its not the most inspiring of markets at the moment!
 
Labaik at 50-1 would be interesting if confirmed chasing. Think i read somewhere hes back in and recovered from injury.
 
I could have sworn I'd made a bit of a case for Slate House but can't see it in here. Must be elsewhere.

He is 50/1 with WH and can be boosted to 56.5/1 which just HAS to be too big.

I found a quote saying he'll be a staying chaser in time.... however, he did run in the Supreme and as we all saw quite publically, he wanted to make Finian's Oscar who was clearly not a 2 miler, into an Arkle horse. I think jono made this point and I completely agree, that he has had an entirely different novice hurdle season and therefore I think I am very close to taking a 0.5 pt e/w bet on Slate House for the Arkle. In fact I now have, 56.5/1

I will also be adding Mengli Khan 1 pt e/w tonight. I've backed him with a free bet but I think he's a decent each way option even at this stage. I can't see another target unless he absolutely bombs out as a chaser (which he could as a flat bred horse) ... but the point above about his price compared to Kalashnikov is a good one

and I think the better ground would help him just as much as Kalashnikov too
 
I'll probably add Paloma Blue 1 pt e/w whilst he is 25/1 (boosted again probably with WH).

Already commiting to the 'book' angle again but it has been a decent race to do so in my ever so humble opinion.

Slate House 56.5/1
Mengli Khan 25/1
Paloma Blue 25/1
Laurina 15.3/1
and a heap of free bets did go on Samcro just in case.

Kalashnikov the monster danger at the moment but no need to do anything for a bit.
 
I see there has been the main focus on the Supreme/Ballymore runners, but does anyone feel we are missing a trick ignoring the Triumph horses?

Farclas, Mr Adjudicator, Sayo, Saldier, Stormy Ireland etc... Plus a few others, including Apple's Shakira, though feel she may stay hurdling?

My initial thoughts were that the form doesn't exactly stand out as 'strong' and at one point or another the majority of the Irish lot have all beaten each other which means no standout performer, the other thought was that the majority could potentially stay hurdling another year a la Footpad, before taking on chasing.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I see there has been the main focus on the Supreme/Ballymore runners, but does anyone feel we are missing a trick ignoring the Triumph horses?

Farclas, Mr Adjudicator, Sayo, Saldier, Stormy Ireland etc... Plus a few others, including Apple's Shakira, though feel she may stay hurdling?

My initial thoughts were that the form doesn't exactly stand out as 'strong' and at one point or another the majority of the Irish lot have all beaten each other which means no standout performer, the other thought was that the majority could potentially stay hurdling another year a la Footpad, before taking on chasing.
Click to expand...

I really like Saldier, he looked to me anything but the typical Triumph horse.

I would hazard a guess he wont go chasing this year, and instead be given a "free" year hurdling like Footpad etc. I think he's a potential monster.
 
jack1092 said:
I really like Saldier, he looked to me anything but the typical Triumph horse.

I would hazard a guess he wont go chasing this year, and instead be given a "free" year hurdling like Footpad etc. I think he's a potential monster.
Click to expand...

Yeah, massive fan I am of him too. Hope he progresses and takes to chasing eventually. He could be a monster.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom