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Arkle 2019

Kevloaf said:
I think I'll take that, (probably 28s with a boost)... he wouldn't even be badly handicapped over hurdles having beaten Melon 1L and close up behind Mick Jazz who placed in the CH.... so any improvement over fences would surely make him a hugely interesting horse.

1.5pt win at 28/1 (I'll gamble on him being sound)
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I’ve taken a punt aswell Kev, his hurdle form is rock solid and he does look the type that would take to fences! He’s 2/2 on genuine good ground too which is a big plus!
 
SeanRock said:
I’ve taken a punt aswell Kev, his hurdle form is rock solid and he does look the type that would take to fences! He’s 2/2 on genuine good ground too which is a big plus!
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I saw that 25/1 any race with coral. (Can't get any of this boost thing) Have left it, Just have in the back of my mind he might not be sound. Iv no idea what the original injury was unfortunately.
 
Agree re C Em. but at this stage going to wait for the impending stable tours.
 
Has anyone heard anything regarding Pingshou? Closely matched with Melon and C.Em on Punchestown form and could be a forgotten horse. However I can't see him priced up anywhere.
 
taylorch1990 said:
Has anyone heard anything regarding Pingshou? Closely matched with Melon and C.Em on Punchestown form and could be a forgotten horse. However I can't see him priced up anywhere.
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Very much a forgotten horse, well, by this forum member, anyway. I already believe the Tizzard yard will have a solid season, and this one adds to that. As far as I am aware and going by the yards Facebook page all is well with Pingshou, he was cantering out with Native River in a short clip they put up. Unsure why he is not added to any markets though.
 
I quite liked Mind's Eye last year (the Samcro sceond keeps on my mind) - I see he's making his chase debut tomorrow at 2m2f. Anyone seen anything about his plans?
 
Vision Des Flos entered for his chasing debut on Friday. I know others have mentioned before that they thought he went for the wrong race at Cheltenham (should has gone for Supreme) and it's very interesting looking at his record over 2 miles...

25/4/17 Goffs Land Rover Bumper - 1st (Hollowgraphic in behind)
11/2/18 Listed Novice Hurdle - 1st (by 31 lengths following win op?)
13/4/18 Grade 1 Novice Hurdle Aintree - 2nd (2 1/2 lengths behind Lalor)
24/4/18 Grade 1 Novice Hurdle Punchestown - 2nd (2 1/4 lengths behind Draconien)

Be interesting to see how he takes to fences on Friday.
 
Marty973 said:
Vision Des Flos entered for his chasing debut on Friday. I know others have mentioned before that they thought he went for the wrong race at Cheltenham (should has gone for Supreme) and it's very interesting looking at his record over 2 miles...

25/4/17 Goffs Land Rover Bumper - 1st (Hollowgraphic in behind)
11/2/18 Listed Novice Hurdle - 1st (by 31 lengths following win op?)
13/4/18 Grade 1 Novice Hurdle Aintree - 2nd (2 1/2 lengths behind Lalor)
24/4/18 Grade 1 Novice Hurdle Punchestown - 2nd (2 1/4 lengths behind Draconien)

Be interesting to see how he takes to fences on Friday.
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Hugely strong fancy of mine for the festival this season, so hoping for a good round from him. Would not be too disheartened if they went the JLT route, as feel he'll be a better chaser than hurdler anyway, and could improve on the 9 length defeat by Samcro at the festival last season.
 
Got VDF onside myself last week in the any race market with Hills boosted to 22/1

Watching back his races last year he was very nimble and accurate over his hurdles, I would say that was his main strength so I can only see fences bringing about further improvement given he's hopefully after filling out nicely into his frame after a summer on the grass. (He looked a little weak previously to me). He definitely needs to settle better into his races he pulled hard in every one of his starts last season especially the Ballymore Hurdle and was never going to be doing his best work at the finish.

I'd prefer to see him line up in the Arkle come March, personally think you can just let him fly and attack his fences at his own pace there but if Colin can get him to settle down into his races he should get the JLT trip no bother.
 
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Expecting very big things from VDF this year. Will be disappointed if he's not first 3 in this.

He's first season over hurdles is not too dissimilar to that of fellow Land Rover Bumper winner Petit Mouchoir. His OR went up 13lb between 5 year old and 6 year old season. Surely if VDF can eek out similar improvement he'd go very close in this.

Also Bedrock who was 3rd to him at Aintree has franked the form nicely with a G3 win in Ireland the weekend over both Wicklow Brave & Arctic Fire. Plinth in 2nd though might make you question the form.
 
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Donn McClean has updated his list with this fellow - a big jump to become an Arkle horse from his Hurdles form but HDB does well with 2m chasers.

https://donnmcclean.com/2018/10/01/ornua/


Ornua did well to beat Cadmium in the Grade 3 2m novices’ chase.

Usually a bit of a trailblazer, Henry de Bromhead’s horse missed the start a little here, but Dylan Robinson was happy to allow him settle in behind horses. He travelled well in behind, he jumped well and he jumped to the front over the second last fence in the back straight. Cadmium quickly moved into his slipstream around the home turn, but it always looked as if Ornua was travelling the better, and a mistake by Cadmium at the second last did not help Willie Mullins’ horse’s chance.

That said, Ornua was very good. His jumping was accurate, he travelled well, he stayed on well all the way to the line, and he clocked a good time. Just beaten by Rashaan in a similar contest at the Galway Festival, he is only seven, and this was just his fifth run over fences, so he has lots of potential for progression. Also, the fact that he was happy to settle in behind horses gives him more options from a tactical point of view. His trainer mentioned the Grade 3 Buck House Chase at Punchestown as a possible target now, and that would be a logical step.

Roscommon, 1st October 2018
 
Kevloaf said:
I'll probably add Paloma Blue 1 pt e/w whilst he is 25/1 (boosted again probably with WH).

Already commiting to the 'book' angle again but it has been a decent race to do so in my ever so humble opinion.

Slate House 56.5/1
Mengli Khan 25/1
Paloma Blue 25/1
Laurina 15.3/1
and a heap of free bets did go on Samcro just in case.

Kalashnikov the monster danger at the moment but no need to do anything for a bit.
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Bit of an update on my book as I've added a few - 13.5 pts staked in total (some are backed with free bets - potential win returns are green...)

Vision Des Flos 22/1 (any race) 46 pts
Cilaos Emery 28/1 (any race) 43.5 pts
Draconien (any race) 40 pts
Slate House 56.5/1 85 pts
Mengli Khan 25/1 65 pts
Paloma Blue 25/1 55 pts
Laurina 15.3/1 54 pts
Samcro 8/1 & 7/1 44 pts
Kalashnikov 8/1 16 pts

Slate House, Menghli Khan and Paloma Blue are each way, the rest win only
 
I topped up on V.d.f - Arkle chsyesterday , before he wins today :devilish:,
See hills have cut him for any race already.
 
well he definitely Had an entry for the 3-05 today at chepstow. guess he did'nt take it up.
 
Had my first antepost bet in this race... Lalor at 33/1 (bet365).

I was at Aintree when he won the bumper the year before last and was really taken with him that day. He's an absolute brute of a horse and looks every inch a 2m Chaser. Really think fences could be the making of him, and the fact he is with such a small stable means he's overpriced and somewhat overlooked in my eyes.

Bit of an in and out season over hurdles last time, he looked as if he might win all three of his races at Exeter, Ascot and Chelts, travelling like the best horse in the race, only failing to pick up close home each time. Great to see him handle Chelts so well in the race he was beaten by Western Ryder, and the pair were nicely clear and showed too much toe for Summerville Boy.

Obviously he disappointed in the Betfair Hurdle, but was friendless in the market and happy to forgive him one bad run. Bounced back to form in no uncertain terms in the Grade 1 Novice at Aintree and that was an excellent performance. Struggle to really see why he's a bigger price than Vision de Flos personally.

I think he has been running well on soft ground, but will likely be better on better ground. Set to make his chase debut at Exeter next week in the race Yanworth won last year. Obviously there is a danger he could be a JLT horse, but he's not available in the Any Race markets and breeding does suggest the minimum trip will be the way to go with him.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Had my first antepost bet in this race... Lalor at 33/1 (bet365).

I was at Aintree when he won the bumper the year before last and was really taken with him that day. He's an absolute brute of a horse and looks every inch a 2m Chaser. Really think fences could be the making of him, and the fact he is with such a small stable means he's overpriced and somewhat overlooked in my eyes.

Bit of an in and out season over hurdles last time, he looked as if he might win all three of his races at Exeter, Ascot and Chelts, travelling like the best horse in the race, only failing to pick up close home each time. Great to see him handle Chelts so well in the race he was beaten by Western Ryder, and the pair were nicely clear and showed too much toe for Summerville Boy.

Obviously he disappointed in the Betfair Hurdle, but was friendless in the market and happy to forgive him one bad run. Bounced back to form in no uncertain terms in the Grade 1 Novice at Aintree and that was an excellent performance. Struggle to really see why he's a bigger price than Vision de Flos personally.

I think he has been running well on soft ground, but will likely be better on better ground. Set to make his chase debut at Exeter next week in the race Yanworth won last year. Obviously there is a danger he could be a JLT horse, but he's not available in the Any Race markets and breeding does suggest the minimum trip will be the way to go with him.
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You may (or may not) be pleased to see Sean Boyce also fancies Lalor... from the ATR website. You make a better case than his few lines :)

One horse that does stand out as over priced to my mind, and one which only some firms are quoting here, is LALOR. Kayleigh Wollacott’s stable star boasts bumper and hurdle form that puts him right in the mix for top novice chasing honours. The trainer has suggested the horse may prove more of a natural over fences and he is an easy ante post pick at a price which seems to underestimate his ability.
 
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