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Arkle 2019

If this was the field for the Grand Annual I still wouldn’t think it was particularly strong!
 
I’ve noticed Lalor drifting last couple of days? Wouldn’t put it down the the potential softer ground as it won its bumper on soft. Has anyone heard any murmurs?
 
Philg123 said:
I’ve noticed Lalor drifting last couple of days? Wouldn’t put it down the the potential softer ground as it won its bumper on soft. Has anyone heard any murmurs?
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Think it's absolutely to do with the ground as that was the excuse for his poor performance LTO.
 
Philg123 said:
I’ve noticed Lalor drifting last couple of days? Wouldn’t put it down the the potential softer ground as it won its bumper on soft. Has anyone heard any murmurs?
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Looked fine in the pictures on Twitter yesterday, and I'd guess it's just the market correcting.
 
Fair enough, I didn’t buy the soft ground excuse due to the soft borderline heavy ground grade one Aintree bumper win. Got to try and get my le richebourg and cilaois emery money back somehow
 
Philg123 said:
Fair enough, I didn’t buy the soft ground excuse due to the soft borderline heavy ground grade one Aintree bumper win. Got to try and get my le richebourg and cilaois emery money back somehow
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I feel your pain, however, I've got a nice freeroll on Lalor.
 
Philg123 said:
I’ve noticed Lalor drifting last couple of days? Wouldn’t put it down the the potential softer ground as it won its bumper on soft. Has anyone heard any murmurs?
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He's fine.
 
Philg123 said:
I’ve noticed Lalor drifting last couple of days? Wouldn’t put it down the the potential softer ground as it won its bumper on soft. Has anyone heard any murmurs?
Click to expand...

Glen Forsa is being talked up big time and Hardline has been smashed up so a slight move more likely to be down to others shortening than him drifting
 
charlie said:
Glen Forsa is being talked up big time and Hardline has been smashed up so a slight move more likely to be down to others shortening than him drifting
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Definitely part of it, and for Kalashnikov who i’m continuing to lay
 
charlie said:
Glen Forsa is being talked up big time and Hardline has been smashed up so a slight move more likely to be down to others shortening than him drifting
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I think there is very much a split opinion on Glen Forsa.

It seems those supporting him have very much jumped on the bandwagon post Sandown. They are clearly willing to take that run at something like face value.

I am firmly in the other camp. Horses have dropped out of the race and it looks a very average renewal, but that doesn't suddenly make him a two miler. My guess would be that we will never see him again at this trip.

If you think Kalashnikov ran his race at Sandown then Glen Forsa is a 170 horse. Even his greatest fan surely doesn't believe that figure? The configuration of Sandown lends itself to a horse who can jump well and is a strong stayer. It also helps when you only have one rival to beat. Cheltenham will be a completely different test.

Most of those putting Glen Forsa up seem to think he is going to lead this field. Assuming they take their chances there are about half a dozen front runners in this race. They are likely to go a million. Unless he is going to burst himself I can't see Glen Forsa taking this field along.

For me this is the worst bit of placement at the Festival. Of course the owner can do exactly what he wants but Glen Forsa would be much more likely to get an easier trip in the JLT (also a weak renewal) and consequently far more likely to dot up.
 
kinloch brae said:
I think there is very much a split opinion on Glen Forsa.

It seems those supporting him have very much jumped on the bandwagon post Sandown. They are clearly willing to take that run at something like face value.

I am firmly in the other camp. Horses have dropped out of the race and it looks a very average renewal, but that doesn't suddenly make him a two miler. My guess would be that we will never see him again at this trip.

If you think Kalashnikov ran his race at Sandown then Glen Forsa is a 170 horse. Even his greatest fan surely doesn't believe that figure? The configuration of Sandown lends itself to a horse who can jump well and is a strong stayer. It also helps when you only have one rival to beat. Cheltenham will be a completely different test.

Most of those putting Glen Forsa up seem to think he is going to lead this field. Assuming they take their chances there are about half a dozen front runners in this race. They are likely to go a million. Unless he is going to burst himself I can't see Glen Forsa taking this field along.

For me this is the worst bit of placement at the Festival. Of course the owner can do exactly what he wants but Glen Forsa would be much more likely to get an easier trip in the JLT (also a weak renewal) and consequently far more likely to dot up.
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Me too. Well put
 
Does anyone else just keep looking at this race and scratching their head? Can’t see how anyone can be bullish about any runner here basically. I thought I’d settled for Glen Forsa but the post above makes some excellent posts against him
 
FaugheenTheMachine said:
Does anyone else just keep looking at this race and scratching their head? Can’t see how anyone can be bullish about any runner here basically. I thought I’d settled for Glen Forsa but the post above makes some excellent posts against him
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Haha you are not alone.

I've taken a view I prefer the Irish form, and have both Hardline & DDG as my 2.
 
Im of the view Cialos Emery would probably have pissed it :(
 
kinloch brae said:
I think there is very much a split opinion on Glen Forsa.

It seems those supporting him have very much jumped on the bandwagon post Sandown. They are clearly willing to take that run at something like face value.

I am firmly in the other camp. Horses have dropped out of the race and it looks a very average renewal, but that doesn't suddenly make him a two miler. My guess would be that we will never see him again at this trip.

If you think Kalashnikov ran his race at Sandown then Glen Forsa is a 170 horse. Even his greatest fan surely doesn't believe that figure? The configuration of Sandown lends itself to a horse who can jump well and is a strong stayer. It also helps when you only have one rival to beat. Cheltenham will be a completely different test.

Most of those putting Glen Forsa up seem to think he is going to lead this field. Assuming they take their chances there are about half a dozen front runners in this race. They are likely to go a million. Unless he is going to burst himself I can't see Glen Forsa taking this field along.

For me this is the worst bit of placement at the Festival. Of course the owner can do exactly what he wants but Glen Forsa would be much more likely to get an easier trip in the JLT (also a weak renewal) and consequently far more likely to dot up.
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In response, devils advocate style

Definitely a Sign of a good horse that can win at variety of trips and at different courses.
Wouldn't have to be 170 that last performance, about 155 would do against this lot.
You need to stay to win an arkle, and jump well. Not just at sandown.

Probably don't need to lead, but that could be a potential issue.
If they "go a million" it's probably suit, unless it's him going daft of course.
 
kinloch brae said:
I think there is very much a split opinion on Glen Forsa.

It seems those supporting him have very much jumped on the bandwagon post Sandown. They are clearly willing to take that run at something like face value.

I am firmly in the other camp. Horses have dropped out of the race and it looks a very average renewal, but that doesn't suddenly make him a two miler. My guess would be that we will never see him again at this trip.

If you think Kalashnikov ran his race at Sandown then Glen Forsa is a 170 horse. Even his greatest fan surely doesn't believe that figure? The configuration of Sandown lends itself to a horse who can jump well and is a strong stayer. It also helps when you only have one rival to beat. Cheltenham will be a completely different test.

Most of those putting Glen Forsa up seem to think he is going to lead this field. Assuming they take their chances there are about half a dozen front runners in this race. They are likely to go a million. Unless he is going to burst himself I can't see Glen Forsa taking this field along.

For me this is the worst bit of placement at the Festival. Of course the owner can do exactly what he wants but Glen Forsa would be much more likely to get an easier trip in the JLT (also a weak renewal) and consequently far more likely to dot up.
Click to expand...

KB
Yes appears so
Don’t agree with your comment “ jumped on the bandwagon “

I saw GF win at Chepstow and subsequently bet for Close Bros and at Kempton and Sandown
Done my dough on Close Bros so then bet for JLT( cash back )
Like yourself I was Surprised to see switch to Arkle ( my biggest bets were like many others Cilaos & LR)
In your opinion “ this is the worst bit of placement at the festival “ hmmm Tizzie Tizzard ?
JP and Ok Corral ?
Can’t see Glen Forsa out of the frame imo with form in the book
Horse has won over 3 different distances, has the jumping ability , speed and stamina to win this even though personally like yourself I’d prefer JLT
Who do you see winning this much depleted Arkle?
 
Humble Pie said:
KB
Yes appears so
Don’t agree with your comment “ jumped on the bandwagon “

I saw GF win at Chepstow and subsequently bet for Close Bros and at Kempton and Sandown
Done my dough on Close Bros so then bet for JLT( cash back )
Like yourself I was Surprised to see switch to Arkle ( my biggest bets were like many others Cilaos & LR)
In your opinion “ this is the worst bit of placement at the festival “ hmmm Tizzie Tizzard ?
JP and Ok Corral ?
Can’t see Glen Forsa out of the frame imo with form in the book
Horse has won over 3 different distances, has the jumping ability , speed and stamina to win this even though personally like yourself I’d prefer JLT
Who do you see winning this much depleted Arkle?
Click to expand...

Glen Forsa's jumping has looked very good but that has been within his comfort zone. This is a different task. He might jump well again but I don't see it as a given. If they have no option but to sit in behind that will to a certain extent negate what has looked his biggest asset.

I say it is the worst bit of placing because I really believe the JLT is there for the taking and there would be every chance of getting the run of the race. The two market leaders are far from bombproof. There are far fewer question marks about winning that race. Personally, I think he needs to win the Arkle to justify the decision.

I backed him at Sandown but I couldn't back him in the Arkle purely on the basis that it is a very poor race.

My position on the Arkle is terrible. Given his physique and cruising speed I was all over Paloma Blue after last year's Festival but he has run three poor races in succession and looked to have pretty much no aptitude for jumping fences. I am not sure he has looked entirely genuine either. Perhaps there was a problem last year that hasn't been dealt with? That said he should definitely run here rather than the JLT. In hindsight I don't feel too bad about Le Richebourg as this ground would have created a big doubt. That just leaves Kalashnikov at 4/1! The race now looks to almost have the shape of a Grand Annual where it is just about who turns up on the day. On that basis I will just have to leave it and take the expected loss.
 
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