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Arkle 2019

kinloch brae said:
Glen Forsa's jumping has looked very good but that has been within his comfort zone. This is a different task. He might jump well again but I don't see it as a given. If they have no option but to sit in behind that will to a certain extent negate what has looked his biggest asset.

I say it is the worst bit of placing because I really believe the JLT is there for the taking and there would be every chance of getting the run of the race. The two market leaders are far from bombproof. There are far fewer question marks about winning that race. Personally, I think he needs to win the Arkle to justify the decision.

I backed him at Sandown but I couldn't back him in the Arkle purely on the basis that it is a very poor race.

My position on the Arkle is terrible. Given his physique and cruising speed I was all over Paloma Blue after last year's Festival but he has run three poor races in succession and looked to have pretty much no aptitude for jumping fences. I am not sure he has looked entirely genuine either. Perhaps there was a problem last year that hasn't been dealt with? That said he should definitely run here rather than the JLT. In hindsight I don't feel too bad about Le Richebourg as this ground would have created a big doubt. That just leaves Kalashnikov at 4/1! The race now looks to almost have the shape of a Grand Annual where it is just about who turns up on the day. On that basis I will just have to leave it and take the expected loss.
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Sounds like someone should be considering a Glen Forsa (arkle) & Paloma Blue (JLT) double.
As I don't think you could take it if it happened.:)
 
kinloch brae said:
Glen Forsa's jumping has looked very good but that has been within his comfort zone. This is a different task. He might jump well again but I don't see it as a given. If they have no option but to sit in behind that will to a certain extent negate what has looked his biggest asset.

I say it is the worst bit of placing because I really believe the JLT is there for the taking and there would be every chance of getting the run of the race. The two market leaders are far from bombproof. There are far fewer question marks about winning that race. Personally, I think he needs to win the Arkle to justify the decision.

I backed him at Sandown but I couldn't back him in the Arkle purely on the basis that it is a very poor race.

My position on the Arkle is terrible. Given his physique and cruising speed I was all over Paloma Blue after last year's Festival but he has run three poor races in succession and looked to have pretty much no aptitude for jumping fences. I am not sure he has looked entirely genuine either. Perhaps there was a problem last year that hasn't been dealt with? That said he should definitely run here rather than the JLT. In hindsight I don't feel too bad about Le Richebourg as this ground would have created a big doubt. That just leaves Kalashnikov at 4/1! The race now looks to almost have the shape of a Grand Annual where it is just about who turns up on the day. On that basis I will just have to leave it and take the expected loss.
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You’re not alone here, I’ve waded into Glen Forsa on a retrieval mission.
They all have huge question marks and no one cannot confidently predict the outcome
Another handicapper Clondaw Castle has joined the party
Quality it has not but it is what it is.
I’m just pleased it’s only the second race of the Festival :-)
 
Just watched all of Hardline's novice chasing campaign thus far, horse has an engine but surely he doesn't jump well enough to win an Arkle?
 
Folski said:
Just watched all of Hardline's novice chasing campaign thus far, horse has an engine but surely he doesn't jump well enough to win an Arkle?
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I think Hardline has the best form in this race.
 
doctorwu said:
I think Hardline has the best form in this race.
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You are probably right but VDR smashed him, I don't think there is an excuse there? I thought Getabird was going to smash him when I was there on the day and on a rewatch I don't think any different but I do rate Getabird so that's not bad form in an atrocious Arkle. He's made a dogs dinner of the fence after the stands in Leop, that fence for me is the worst in the whole of Ireland but what is worrying is there was absolutely no pace in that race at all, if he can't jump with no pace what will he do in an Arkle? It could be a case that his jumping improves for a better pace but that is not generally the case. He also fell twice over hurdles when right in contention.
 
doctorwu said:
I think Hardline has the best form in this race.
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Except his defeat at the hands of Voix Du Reve :devilish: Whom has close form ties with Le Richebourg.

Wondering if they don't send VDR here WPM must be sweet enough on Duc Des Genievres. The Irish form is ahead for me it's just knowing which way round to have it.
 
I can't see any outcome other than Paloma Blue winning this and comfortably in the end. I actually think this test will be the making of the horse. Last time out the jumping was coming together as the race unfolded, jumping the last two as well as any when really getting into racing pace against a rival that isn't unfancied in the JLT. Finishing the race a winner, like a fresh horse with more to come no doubt..
 
Pleased to see your enjoying your thirsty Thursday Donnyboy
 
As the runners have folded along the way in this race I think the bookies still have it right. Lalor win as still think it has the best form on show with all the NR.
 
As I had Lalor winning this with all dropouts still in I can see him putting in an electric round of jumping... taking it up between two out and the last and clearing away. Touch wood he stays in the shape he is in right now...just a case of keeping him ticking over until Tuesday.
 
To be fairly general... the reason this race looks so tough now is so many horses have put in ONE good run in terms on an Arkle...

Duc Des Genivres
Glen Forsa
Lalor
Voix Du Reve
Hardline

I'd all say on their best day have form you'd say, 'yeah, that'd win this years Arkle'.

Consistancy has been the issue, which doesn't make punting on it easy at all.


I'm similar to others who aren't in a good spot in this race... I'm almost backed into a corner being against GFlen Forsa which isn't really where I want to be.
 
Lalor most likely winner imo. November meeting performance should do it,
 
I don’t know why more people are mentioning knocknanuss? Beat the recently substituted Clondaw Castle by nearly 40L at Newbury then ran a blinder over a trip probably too long at plumpton and only lost to a horse who if was fit would be short price favourite for the JLT. His run in Ireland clearly didn’t go to plan, he was worked up before the race and fell early doors. Take that out and his form is as good as any.
 
My tent or yours said:
I don’t know why more people are mentioning knocknanuss? Beat the recently substituted Clondaw Castle by nearly 40L at Newbury then ran a blinder over a trip probably too long at plumpton and only lost to a horse who if was fit would be short price favourite for the JLT. His run in Ireland clearly didn’t go to plan, he was worked up before the race and fell early doors. Take that out and his form is as good as any.
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He could take half the field out at the first if he don't settle this time.
 
Well on Tuesday we will be thinking the best winner of an Arkle since the “great” [BLANK] :highly_amused:
 
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Glen Forsa the pick for me in what looks a pretty competitive race. Lalors round of jusmping at Cheltenham last time was superb but then ran a shocker at Sandown which is enough to put me off. Glen Forsa has been a model of consistency and I went in on him after he absolutely smashed Kalashnikov (like many others on here I’m sure).
 
Given the rain that has been around and due to come Lalor may bypass this and wait for Aintree if the ground gets too testing.
 
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