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Arkle 2019

Scooby91 said:
I genuinely think CE is a shoe in here. Maybe im over confident, on hurdles form. Because on his 1 chase run, he's not had the opportunity to better himself in graded company, so I can't say he's by far the best of these over fences.
But imo i believe given the opportunity, he will be.

But either way. Won't be long until we find out. Touch wood all our bets make it there.
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:highly_amused::highly_amused:
 
Scooby91 said:
I'll quote that laugh after the 2nd race.
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I'll be to busy enjoying LR at the track to find time to visit this thread. And I have CE any race 25/1 but can't see him being quite good enough.
 
doctorwu said:
I'll be to busy enjoying LR at the track to find time to visit this thread. And I have CE any race 25/1 but can't see him being quite good enough.
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Whats that based on doc?

No worry that LR might not have his ideal ground? Albeit good in the description.
 
jack1092 said:
Whats that based on doc?

No worry that LR might not have his ideal ground? Albeit good in the description.
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Im not worried at the moment. Things can change and we could get ground like last year. LR has form over 2.4 so I'm not unduly worried.

As for CE, I'm a big fan, as you'll see from past postings but its a tall order winning an Arkle off a beginners chase win. To call CE a shoe-in is bonkers talk.
 
doctorwu said:
Im not worried at the moment. Things can change and we could get ground like last year. LR has form over 2.4 so I'm not unduly worried.

As for CE, I'm a big fan, as you'll see from past postings but its a tall order winning an Arkle off a beginners chase win. To call CE a shoe-in is bonkers talk.
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It is also ironic he would use that term, unless by design (Scooby?), seeing as CE lost a shoe in the Supreme Novice Hurdle of 2017.
 
doctorwu said:
I'll be to busy enjoying LR at the track to find time to visit this thread. And I have CE any race 25/1 but can't see him being quite good enough.
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Le Richebourg has been the beneficiary of good ground on his last 4 starts. JOB & KB have both reiterated he is good ground dependent. Simon Claise is almost certain to water if its not soft already. That is a big negative as his form on anything worse than good/soft is rubbish. I would then have concerns in the back of my mind over whether or not Cheltenham will suit (admittedly the ground went against him last year).
 
LR is the solid contender basically as he's made hay while he's had his ground. Probably will get away with g/s let's be honest.

Is he a top notcher? Not for me, he's very good. Wide open race, i would rather have seen CE get a second run too..
 
jack1092 said:
LR is the solid contender basically as he's made hay while he's had his ground. Probably will get away with g/s let's be honest.

Is he a top notcher? Not for me, he's very good. Wide open race, i would rather have seen CE get a second run too..
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Definitely not top notch, but LR backers will argue he doesn't have to be given what he is likely to face. As a side note, LR would not be as popular as he is were he owned by David Staddon and trained by Kayley Woollacott
 
Native River said:
I might've gone a bit mental with the lack of racing but I do feel 33/1 is too high for Mengli Khan, and looking at his form and his 3 runs at Leopardstown could it be he struggles at the course? His first run was when he decided to jump the wing, then a 4th & 3rd, you take that out and his form is fantastic and we know he can handle the hill as he came up it well in the Supreme and hopefully better ground to suit who knows....

Stinks of clutching at straws this :highly_amused:
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While he definitely needs to brush up his jumping, there is an argument that he has an issue with Leopardstown. He jumped ok in his win at Fairyhouse but it was a fairly slow run race. I personally think he will be much better suited to soft ground and, if he got that ground at Cheltenham, he could run a big race. He is rated 147 over fences in Ireland and, while that would comfortably get him in a Grand Annual, I am not sure, if you're worried about his jumping, that charging around in a 20-runner race would be a good idea. I don't see why they wouldn't come here given the likely smaller field On last year's Cheltenham form, 6/1 Kalashnikov and 33/1 Mengli Khan is way too big of a differential.
 
charlie said:
Definitely not top notch, but LR backers will argue he doesn't have to be given what he is likely to face. As a side note, LR would not be as popular as he is were he owned by David Staddon and trained by Kayley Woollacott
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Spot on Charlie. I really hope that Dave's resistance to sell his horse for huge money pay's off for him. But from a personal point of view I want Lalor to prove that he is the horse that Rich 'Woolly' always believed him to be. Kayley is doing a great job with him and he is in amazing shape...bring on the Arkle.
 
Just logged into a few other bookmakers, looks like I have a few more points on CE than I realised.

Definitely my biggest winner of the festival, hopefully any vaccination issues (if any) don’t effect him too much
 
westcountry1 said:
Spot on Charlie. I really hope that Dave's resistance to sell his horse for huge money pay's off for him. But from a personal point of view I want Lalor to prove that he is the horse that Rich 'Woolly' always believed him to be. Kayley is doing a great job with him and he is in amazing shape...bring on the Arkle.
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I don't have any money on Lalor, but if he wins he'll get a big reception from me
 
charlie said:
Le Richebourg has benefitted from running on the good ground he wants of late, but his form in any race of note with a view to this on soft/heavy doesn't read particularly well, including at Cheltenham last year. Probably a worthy fav in a race that lacks depth, but Simon Claise will no doubt water for the first day of festival if it's not soft already, that will significantly reduce his chances over a course we can't be sure suits (ground definitely counted against him last year). Can see LR being absolutely smashed up on the day like an absolute certainty, and then getting beat.

I don't like Kalashnikov and if he were mine he would go JLT. Winner comes from Lalor or Cilaos Emery IMO.
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So if your saying LR wont like softer ground which we might be likely to get, would you say this would play more into Kalashnikovs hands as he is more of a stayer?

Personally for me i'd be siding with Kalashnikov if the ground was soft or worse.
 
hors3s said:
So if your saying LR wont like softer ground which we might be likely to get, would you say this would play more into Kalashnikovs hands as he is more of a stayer?

Personally for me i'd be siding with Kalashnikov if the ground was soft or worse.
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I think it would play into any of the top 3 in the betting nearest LR. He'll be the one who will likely suffer the most for any softened ground, but Lalor, Kalashnikov & Cilaos Emery wouldn't have any issue with it.

Unless it hammers it down over the next 2 to 3 weeks it probably won't be soft or worse anyway, most likely is Good-Soft after they water it.

As it stands I don't think there is much rain forecast for the next week or so. But still a long way out to gauge exact ground conditions.
 
Im surprised they aren't considering a crack at the JLT for Kalashnikov myself.

I dont think the front two in that race set a very high standard myself, and Le Richebourg, Lalor and CE look more formidable opponents. Coupled with the fact there is plenty of stamina in his pedigree and he shapes like he will stay further. I dont give him much chance in the Arkle, but would back him in the JLT.
 
Kalashnikov has had 2 runs right handed, and both have been defeats. Even with that, he did disappoint behind DDs a horse i would hope wouldn't be good enough for this if fit.
 
Kalashnikov has won a Betfair hurdle and come 2nd in a decent enough Supreme, so i think it's a little bit unfair to say he doesn't have the pace to win an Arkle.

Also people using DD as a yardstick as to why he won't win, forgetting that the Nicholls horse also beat Lalor too.
 
luisgarciaisgod said:
Kalashnikov has won a Betfair hurdle and come 2nd in a decent enough Supreme, so i think it's a little bit unfair to say he doesn't have the pace to win an Arkle.

Also people using DD as a yardstick as to why he won't win, forgetting that the Nicholls horse also beat Lalor too.
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Kalashnikov could be decent and probably ran in wrong race last time.
But the supreme wasn’t very good in hindsight
 
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