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Arkle 2019

thistlecracker said:
I was there today and I certainly didn’t think his jumping was anywhere near as good as the performance at cheltenham
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Maybe not as quick over the fences but i refer you to ground not being suitable and i would put it down purely to that. I just love the way he gets from one side to the other and on better spring ground I promise you will see his true colours again...be that at Cheltenham and or Aintree.
 
westcountry1 said:
Maybe not as quick over the fences but i refer you to ground not being suitable and i would put it down purely to that. I just love the way he gets from one side to the other and on better spring ground I promise you will see his true colours again...be that at Cheltenham and or Aintree.
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You'd have to be worried about a strongly run arkle for Lalor though. Any horse that connections seemed to have a favour for flat tracks and gets done for stamina on bad ground has to also be doubtful for a strongly run championship race. Although his jumping should help
 
Getabird there is a month between Cheltenham and Easter so could feasibly take in festival and Easter grade1 at Fairyhouse - less temptation to stay at home than other years
 
Easier race for Getabird i guess at Limerick, but he will need to be tested before Cheltenham going left handed IMO if he was to interest me.

As expected did it nicely, jumped very well + showed a great turn of foot.....one that's very interesting to watch this year, just to see what way he goes + whether fences will fix his kinks a little.
 
Just been reading trends for Arkle winners in that you need to have finished in first 2 for all completed Chase runs.Does this mean lalor has to be excluded now?
 
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Welshman said:
Just been reading trends for Arkle winners in that you need to have finished in first 2 for all completed Chase runs.Does this mean has to be excluded now
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Well it depends on whether or not you back based soley on trends Welshman?


Personally, I'd think you'd be close to insane to rule a horse out that had come 3rd in a grade 1 on the wrong ground if he won his first over C&D in a stronger race the time before. Let's say he runs in another two races, lower grade, wins them well and gets his ground in March...


If Lalor doesn't win the Arkle, it isn't because he came 3rd in a grade 1.In my opinion... :)
 
Kevloaf said:
Well it depends on whether or not you back based soley on trends Welshman?


Personally, I'd think you'd be close to insane to rule a horse out that had come 3rd in a grade 1 on the wrong ground if he won his first over C&D in a stronger race the time before. Let's say he runs in another two races, lower grade, wins them well and gets his ground in March...


If Lalor doesn't win the Arkle, it isn't because he came 3rd in a grade 1.In my opinion... :)
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Not a huge trends man But last 11 winners have this trend.Just put it up on forum for debate.
 
Welshman said:
Not a huge trends man But last 11 winners have this trend.Just put it up on forum for debate.
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Haha, nothing like a trend to get a bit of debate going.

It'd be skewed in my opinion because we've had a lot of hot pots/favourites at short prices in uncompetitive Arkle's and they'd all have hit that trend.

This year, being much more open would lend itself to that stat being less relevant (although there are plenty of ways for 2 mile novices to avoid eachother)

What do you think?
 
Kevloaf said:
Haha, nothing like a trend to get a bit of debate going.

It'd be skewed in my opinion because we've had a lot of hot pots/favourites at short prices in uncompetitive Arkle's and they'd all have hit that trend.

This year, being much more open would lend itself to that stat being less relevant (although there are plenty of ways for 2 mile novices to avoid eachother)

What do you think?
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Having invested in Kalashnikov I find the trend encouraging. ..
 
Welshman said:
Just been reading trends for Arkle winners in that you need to have finished in first 2 for all completed Chase runs.Does this mean lalor has to be excluded now?
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Where will he go between now and the festival ?
 
In 2012 - Cue Card and Sprinter Sacre would have qualified (2 of the 6)

2013 - Arvika Ligeonniere, Majala, Overturn and Simonsig all qualified (4 of the 7 runners)

2014 - Dodgning Bullets, Grandouet, Rock On Ruby, Trifolium, Valdez all qualified yet none of them won? (5 of the 9 - Winner had form of 261 that season) if Champagne Fever had won, the trend would still have been false this season as he'd finished 3rd earier that season.

2015 - Baltimore Rock, Douvan, Sizing John, Vaniteaux all qualified (4 of the 7 runners)

2016 - Clarcam, Josses Hill, Three Kingdoms and Un De Sceaux all qualified (4 on the 11)

2017 - Altior, Cloudy Dream, Forest Bihan, Royal Caviar all qualified (4 of the 9 runners)

2018 - Brain Power, Footpad, Petit Mouchoir, Saint Calvados and Robinshill all qualified (5 out of 5 runners)

The trend has over 50% of the field running "for it" in 4 of the last 7 years (haven't bothered to go back any further)I don't think it's a trend that really narrows anything down, all of the horses that have won were odds on.
 
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Had Ornua fallen at the last and Lalor had finished a distant 2nd instead of distant 3rd, would it really make his chances any different come March? Id say not myself.
 
Really not trying to winding you up but if you check back on 2014 winner Even the Great Western warhorse fitted the trend..He got beat in hurdles prior to the Arkle.But won his only chase
 
Getabird did it well today. I imagine I'll need to cash out though as they seem intent on sticking to RH tracks.
 
Innoko said:
Getabird did it well today. I imagine I'll need to cash out though as they seem intent on sticking to RH tracks.
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He'll 100% be entered up all the way through to the final stages even if it's a block entry. So I wouldn't worry about cashing anytime soon, atleast wait till it's full cash out and you double your money, even if he went up in trip.
 
Scooby91 said:
He'll 100% be entered up all the way through to the final stages even if it's a block entry. So I wouldn't worry about cashing anytime soon, atleast wait till it's full cash out and you double your money, even if he went up in trip.
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Of course.

As soon as NRNB come in, the cash out should go through the roof. As long as nothing unfortunate happens between now and then.
 
Voix Du Reve continues to be supported for this, Skybet the only outpost at 25/1 which I doubt will last long
 
I presume the VDR support is because he'll be going at Christmas and Getabird to Limerick?

I'd be surprised if VDR wins over Xmas but i suppose he's done well this year so far...
 
jack1092 said:
I presume the VDR support is because he'll be going at Christmas and Getabird to Limerick?

I'd be surprised if VDR wins over Xmas but i suppose he's done well this year so far...
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May be the case but I think Cliaos Emery is entered for the same race, and he hasn’t been supported yet. May be as you say because VDR has already been out and also people thinking Getabird won’t end up here and are looking for the Mullins alternative. Makes me slightly nervous as one I haven’t covered yet for this race and would rather not have to
 
Yeah Cilaos Emery i'd doubt will be running there with no previous run, so he's likely to be Mullins "no.1" at this stage anyway....and what happens if he does end up beating Mengli Khan? Goes close to fav for this- so probs covering their arses/some people taking the chance just in case
 
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