Arkle 2019

[delsie777]

A lot of reference to old hurdle form. I think the point is that some horses just plainly improve for a fence. At the risk of falling into the 'always had the look of a chaser' bracket, Lalor just looked a bit special at Cheltenham, didn't he? Rather like Footpad did on his debut last year. The question of value is something different but people have clearly been backing him at 10's, 8's, 7's & 6's and that's why he keeps shortening. To be honest, I would be far more worried about what Mengli beat in Ireland than what Lalor beat at Cheltenham. MK did do it well - but it just didn't make you sit up and take notice in quite the way Lalor's performance did. Good luck to those with huge eachway prices. You're in a great place as the race nearly always cuts up. Hope he stays fit and well.

 

[boopa]

MK showed it can wing one and pop over when in close. It was a safe antepost as it was likely to be Elliot's Arkle horse. The question mark I had was its breeding. That was put to bed yesterday.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

A lot of reference to old hurdle form. I think the point is that some horses just plainly improve for a fence. At the risk of falling into the 'always had the look of a chaser' bracket, Lalor just looked a bit special at Cheltenham, didn't he? Rather like Footpad did on his debut last year. The question of value is something different but people have clearly been backing him at 10's, 8's, 7's & 6's and that's why he keeps shortening. To be honest, I would be far more worried about what Mengli beat in Ireland than what Lalor beat at Cheltenham. MK did do it well - but it just didn't make you sit up and take notice in quite the way Lalor's performance did. Good luck to those with huge eachway prices. You're in a great place as the race nearly always cuts up. Hope he stays fit and well.

Good to see you on here delsie!

 

[bobbyvalentino]

Jumping fences at 2 mile festival gallop is such a specialist act that the recent years in which we've had elite horses in the novice ranks has had the knock on impact of scaring a lot of the competition away.

You can normally pick out a select few high achieving novice hurdlers from the previous season that have the pace and are likely to improve for a fence, and hence build a reasonably confident "book" on the Arkle pre-debut. It's quite rare to see a horse improve for a fence as much as Footpad supposedly did, but then again he was competing in a Champion Hurdle the year before and wouldn't have been impossible to find.

Now it's probably too early to prove, and we will know more after the weekend, but my hunch is that the two mile novice hurdle crop from last year were a sub-par bunch. The form lines are particularly muddling and it's very unlikely there was a superstar. My response has been to take a bit of a spread bet approach at summer prices, based loosely on form achieved, vibes and trainers, and I've been quite fortunate in that those have made nice debuts that are now the top three in the market.

I could not make a strong case for any of them however, and they are now all awful prices based on what we've seen so far. It's a very open year and no result would surprise me. For what it's worth I would have Kalashnikov favourite, then Lalor, then MK, but I couldn't entertain any at the odds. Unless you've got a nice angle on a fancy price (I think 104 times bumped CE just about qualifies) there's much better ante-post betting opportunities around.

 

[charlie]

I think it's a multitude of factors that have propelled Lalor to the top of the market. Jumped very well, won first time out, did it at Cheltenham, it's an emotional win for Kayley Woollacott which has gabbed lots of headlines, the market is lacking depth/standout star and ultimately, he was visually impressive. Nothing wrong with questioning the form, we have to, but IMO it's all of these things that have collectively resulted in him being fav.

 

[taylorch1990]

Looking at the arkle betting I think it's just about right at the moment if maybe swap Kalashnikov and Mengli Khan but it's close enough. I agree with the previous point that the fact they kept beating each other over hurdles probably means it was an average bunch so might be best looking at a horse outside of last years 2 mile novices, so can see the reason behind Cilaos Emery. But going back to the front 3 in the market if they are fairly closely matched on hurdle form (if you can excuse Lalor in the betfair hurdle) then all you can do is go by their chase debuts and Lalors was so much better. He was the most impressive jumper of the 3 in the strongest race and over course and distance of the Arkle. Can't fault anyone whose on them at bigger odds, but I believe Kalashnikov has always been too short in this market.

 

[delsie777]

I was always quite a fan of Cilaos Emery but where has all this love for him for The Arkle come from? Has he been schooling really well or something? I take it he's an intended runner in that big trial race in Ireland over Christmas?

 

[charlie]

I was always quite a fan of Cilaos Emery but where has all this love for him for The Arkle come from? Has he been schooling really well or something? I take it he's an intended runner in that big trial race in Ireland over Christmas?

Scooby schooled him last week and he’s flying apparently

 

[Scooby91]

I was always quite a fan of Cilaos Emery but where has all this love for him for The Arkle come from? Has he been schooling really well or something? I take it he's an intended runner in that big trial race in Ireland over Christmas?

Highest rated hurdler going novice chasing. His rating of 159 is rock solid and been achieved in open company. If he can jump a fence, which Imo he's hes always had chaser written all over him. Then He'll be the one to beat imo.

 

[Kevloaf]

I was always quite a fan of Cilaos Emery but where has all this love for him for The Arkle come from? Has he been schooling really well or something? I take it he's an intended runner in that big trial race in Ireland over Christmas?

Combination of lack of actual horses to talk about, scooby putting up Footpad last season way before he ran and the 28/1 any race available being appealing.:highly_amused:

Nothing concrete other that highest rated hurdler..... and welcome (back) to the forum

 

[delsie777]

Combination of lack of actual horses to talk about, scooby putting up Footpad last season way before he ran and the 28/1 any race available being appealing.:highly_amused:

Nothing concrete other that highest rated hurdler..... and welcome (back) to the forum

Thanks kev. If he's another Footpad then yeah. I think Draconien was the one they had in mind until he got his problem. I guess other than that , they are short of options in this division. I think Getabird is going over further isn't he? And after last year... well … I would want to see him not only jump but also go lefthanded and preferably around Cheltenham - and I don't see much of that happening.

 

[SAMCRO]

A lot of entries for limerick on Boxing Day, novice chase 2m 3 inc cilaos emery, getabird, chacun pour soi

 

[Kevloaf]

Thanks kev. If he's another Footpad then yeah. I think Draconien was the one they had in mind until he got his problem. I guess other than that , they are short of options in this division. I think Getabird is going over further isn't he? And after last year... well … I would want to see him not only jump but also go lefthanded and preferably around Cheltenham - and I don't see much of that happening.

Yeah I'm along the same lines, was keen on Draconien and they'd name-checked the Arkle (which I know isn't anything to get too carried away with, but was positive at least). If I had to take a punt now I'd say Cilaos Emery Arkle and Getabird JLT, but I wouldn't be surprised the other way around, and I couldn't be confident they'd both be top of the tree by March. Getabird does have it to prove, but has that under current of ability that I can't ignore either. Watching for an entry!

 

[Kevloaf]

A lot of entries for limerick on Boxing Day, novice chase 2m 3 inc cilaos emery, getabird, chacun pour soi

Wow, he's a blast from the not so distant past!

I don't remember him getting a mention in the recent RP stable tour?

50/1 with 365

 

[Kevloaf]

Iv had the arkle winner every year iv backed antepost. That stat wont be changing. I won't be backing another horse in the arkle this year.

Mengli khan 20/1
Cilaos emery 28/1 (any race)
getabird 20/1 (365)


I'll quote this after the arkle. I bet I have the winner. (Bar injury)

Updated.*


*********
Added chacun pour soi 50/1 arkle with 365.

Only done this because I love you.


I also said it (with more horses) and have added CPS at 50/1 :highly_amused:

 

[Scooby91]

Only done this because I love you.


I also said it (with more horses) and have added CPS at 50/1 :highly_amused:

Do you have cash out available on chacun?

Id advise to anyone else if your gonna risk him take the 66s.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Do you have cash out available on chacun?

Id advise to anyone else if your gonna risk him take the 66s.

I could have swore you said you weren't having another bet in the Arkle. I must have imagined it

 

[Innoko]

They don't seem to offer cash out will all horses (as I've found out), always worth testing with a very small wager first just incase.

 

[Scooby91]

I could have swore you said you weren't having another bet in the Arkle. I must have imagined it

I diddnt exoect that entry. It's the only 1 I would take a risk on and the price is right.
I deffo wont now. Promise.

 

[Scooby91]

They don't seem to offer cash out will all horses (as I've found out), always worth testing with a very small wager first just incase.

1st one for me. I have a pt on him But lesson learned. And very good idea.