I have calculated the sectionals of all 4 races featuring Footpad & Petit Mouchair, my findings are below.
Ryanair hurdle: PM is 1.98seconds quicker than FP from first to post and 9.42 seconds quicker than the 2m4f handicap the winner of which was mid 120s and carried 7lb less. Looking at his sectionals versus the handicap, it shows he tends to go hard at the start of a race, gradually reducing speed as the race unfolds, before a drop in pace, then kick for home but he is doing his work early in his races. Footpad was never really a factor in this race.
Irish Champion hurdle: PM tries similar tactics to the Ryanair hurdle, on the clock FP is well able to match him for pace and actually runs from first to post 0.96 seconds quicker the PM. PM has a nice lead built up at the first and FPs hold up tactics prove costly going down by about 1L. Footpad is about 5.75L quicker from the 2nd last to the winning post than PM. Incredibly this race is run 20second quicker than Christmas with the going having good in the description. However, comparing the time to that of Let's Dance in the grade 2 shows the race was not the all out gallop it could have been. Let's Dance is 0.11 seconds quicker than PM from first to last and you wouldn't say she is all out in the race although she is well ridden out and in receipt of 14lb.
Champion Hurdle: Again FP is quicker first to last than PM this time by .56seconds and his hold up tactics proving costly again. Labaik was 1.06 seconds faster than PM first to post. Similar tactics used by PM again although he didn't go as hard early this time.
Hurdle races overall: Discounting the first race as FP was non-competitive, its is interesting to note that each race has 8 hurdles, in the Irish Champion, FP is nearly 5L quicker than PM between the 5th and 8th but only 0.01 second between the last and post. In the Champion Hurdle it is a similar story, FP is 3L quicker between the 5th and 8th but 0.15 slower from last to post. This really makes me question the tactics used on FP, while he can generally match the early pace that PM goes he is doing his toughest work to get into contention before the finish, therefore not leaving as much in the tank for the actual finish, a more positive ride closer to the pace would make sense.
Irish Arkle: Footpad again quicker from first to post, this time 0.8 seconds but is eased before the line. The race also compares quite favourably with the handicap chase over the same distance in which Patrick's Park was 1.3 seconds slower and all out unlike Footpad, but also carrying 26lb less. From 1st to 9th PP was approx 16.5L behind FP but about 11L quicker from 2 out. PP was all out and FP was eased so you can probably knock the bulk of that off in what was a very impressive performance.
Overall, my doubts on FP have eased considerably and I think a positive ride from the off will see him win this.
