Arkle 2018

[Montjeu]

Anthony Bromley, racing manager to Munir and Souede, said: "We have history before of running two in a Cheltenham race. If they both keep going as they have been up to now we couldn't keep them apart because we're talking about the Arkle."

Good to hear, thanks for that.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Good to hear, thanks for that.

Thought that would be music to your ears mate

 

[Kevloaf]

Can't have any doubts that Footpad goes here now can we?

Those comments seem pretty clear from Bromley and Mullins/Ruby don't have an obvious alternative?

The JLT does look a deeper race too....

Mullins also quoted as saying they'll try to make him an Arkle horse as well, although he did offer up the Drinmore as a possibility and that he did get 2m4f over hurdles.

Think I posted this recently but need it for my own records ayway - Staked 31 pts in total (including the 10 pts lost on FO). I'll still come out of this race ahead if any of the first 5 in the market win which is some consolation though - best results are now PM 53 pts, Footpad 47 pts and Sceau Royal 42 pts, Brain Power 39 pts and NHH 34 pts

Have some nice Gigginstown related multiples with PM, some nice Footpad ones for day 1 in particular but I might look at expanding my multiples that have Footpad in..... as with a gun to my head, I'd say he was the most likely winner now (no prizes for originality) but I think I under-estimated the quotes on the target.

 

[Scooby91]

Can't have any doubts that Footpad goes here now can we?

Those comments seem pretty clear from Bromley and Mullins/Ruby don't have an obvious alternative?

The JLT does look a deeper race too....

Mullins also quoted as saying they'll try to make him an Arkle horse as well, although he did offer up the Drinmore as a possibility and that he did get 2m4f over hurdles.

Think I posted this recently but need it for my own records ayway - Staked 31 pts in total (including the 10 pts lost on FO). I'll still come out of this race ahead if any of the first 5 in the market win which is some consolation though - best results are now PM 53 pts, Footpad 47 pts and Sceau Royal 42 pts, Brain Power 39 pts and NHH 34 pts

Have some nice Gigginstown related multiples with PM, some nice Footpad ones for day 1 in particular but I might look at expanding my multiples that have Footpad in..... as with a gun to my head, I'd say he was the most likely winner now (no prizes for originality) but I think I under-estimated the quotes on the target.

Personally kev. I think there is a way pm or fp go for the jlt. I think the jlt is very open now. If PM does make it to Feb. And 1 of the 2 brushes the other aside . I could see the loser going jlt. May not be the case but it would make sense to me. I think any of the first 3 in the arkle betting would win the jlt currently. Thats why i covered jlt at 3 figures for all the horses bar NHH that were declared for yesterdays race. That race yesterday was very strong all the way through to the last horse. The reason I wanted FO to stay over 2m4 is because I thought he would have a cracking chance in the the jlt and very little in the arkle. I see both the market leaders now which I have DD at 20/1 as beatable (spring ground) and WC at 16s as very beatable. Finians is now skipping straight up to the rsa because tizzards made a mess of that. I really hope Sutton place gets back and comes out before the middle of january because he'd be very likely to brush these aside in the jlt for me. If not i wouldnt be shocked if one of the beaten horses. Capitaine/ brainpower went and won the jlt.

 

[Robante]

Still wounded by how I saw this so wrong! Put my faith in Tizzard I guess but it’s a lesson to back your own eyes and judgement as to what you see before you. On reflection all Finians runs suggested he was a 2m 4 plus horse. Had most on him any race which at least means all hope isn’t lost. Footpad is my main winner here but again got some on any race. Sceau Royal and Brain Power aren’t for me getting up the hill at Cheltenham so will probably just leave it at Footpad and Petit Mouchoir and hope they’re kept apart before Cheltenham and both aimed here

 

[Kevloaf]

Personally kev. I think there is a way pm or fp go for the jlt. I think the jlt is very open now. If PM does make it to Feb. And 1 of the 2 brushes the other aside . I could see the loser going jlt. May not be the case but it would make sense to me. I think any of the first 3 in the arkle betting would win the jlt currently. Thats why i covered jlt at 3 figures for all the horses bar NHH that were declared for yesterdays race. That race yesterday was very strong all the way through to the last horse. The reason I wanted FO to stay over 2m4 is because I thought he would have a cracking chance in the the jlt and very little in the arkle. I see both the market leaders now which I have DD at 20/1 as beatable (spring ground) and WC at 16s as very beatable. Finians is now skipping straight up to the rsa because tizzards made a mess of that. I really hope Sutton place gets back and comes out before the middle of january because he'd be very likely to brush these aside in the jlt for me. If not i wouldnt be shocked if one of the beaten horses. Capitaine/ brainpower went and won the jlt.

I think the novice chasers that were gong further than 2 miles were always going to stronger than any of the 2m horses this year ... certainly based on their hurdle novice ratings.

As competitive as yesterdays race was, I don't think we can say its a great crop of 2m novice chasers ... so I'd expect Capitaine and brain power well beaten in a JLT.

Without Fp and PM who weren't novice hurdlers, the top rated novice hurdlers than have gone chasing all were putting in better figures over further (bar Labaik).

 

[Scooby91]

I think the novice chasers that were gong further than 2 miles were always going to stronger than any of the 2m horses this year ... certainly based on their hurdle novice ratings.

As competitive as yesterdays race was, I don't think we can say its a great crop of 2m novice chasers ... so I'd expect Capitaine and brain power well beaten in a JLT.

Without Fp and PM who weren't novice hurdlers, the top rated novice hurdlers than have gone chasing all were putting in better figures over further (bar Labaik).

I honestly think its the best most competative 2 mile crop in a long time.
With all respect i wouldn't agree with any of that lol.
But thats why we have a betting market
The jlt is there for the taking

 

[Innoko]

That was the 'hottest' two mile novice chase of the season.

Sceau Royal pretty much blew them all away, still think 9-1 underestimates the horses chances.

Finians disappointing effort seems to be overshadowing the winners performance IMO.

 

[Scooby91]

That was the 'hottest' two mile novice chase of the season.

Sceau Royal pretty much blew them all away, still think 9-1 underestimates the horses chances.

Finians disappointing effort seems to be overshadowing the winners performance IMO.

I went back in at 9/1 ew sceau royal after the race. I wouldn't knock that bet at all.

 

[Kevloaf]

Most competitive doesn't mean it's the best class though does it?

The mares race at chelt was arguably the most competitive... but those 3 weren't the best 3 hurdlers... it just meant they were in the same division.

NHH, SR, BP, Capitaine .... you have then ahead of DD, WC and FO over further? I'd certainly not be integrated at best price 12/1 for them... can understand having a flutter at a bigger price but they're all way too short for me

Monalee and Bacardys would also be higher on my list for the JLT than SR or NHH or BP or Capitaine? ..... plus Modus

 

[Kevloaf]

Any concerns that Sceau royal isn't a spring horse? A lot of his better form is early in a season?

I agree 9/1 had under estimated him though, think its a fair bet

 

[Scooby91]

Most competitive doesn't mean it's the best class though does it?

The mares race at chelt was arguably the most competitive... but those 3 weren't the best 3 hurdlers... it just meant they were in the same division.

NHH, SR, BP, Capitaine .... you have then ahead of DD, WC and FO over further? I'd certainly not be integrated at best price 12/1 for them... can understand having a flutter at a bigger price but they're all way too short for me

Monalee and Bacardys would also be higher on my list for the JLT than SR or NHH or BP or Capitaine? ..... plus Modus

Not NHH he goes arkle. Monalee decent got him covered at 80.0 massively over rated so far this season on his 1 run. Bacardys I'm hopeful he very likely won't be going jlt though. Not at current price they were 200.0 - 300.0 respectively The day before yesterdays race. And PM FP I got any race 12s 10s/ 16s

I'd be honestly worried if I diddnt have them covered.

 

[Kevloaf]

I've got the same for FP and PM any race but I'm trying to take my own bets out of the equation ...

I just don't see the 2m chasers so far (bar those 2 and Labaik) as being better than the horses over further.

I actually wrote somewhere that I think its a really average group of novice hurdlers that are chasing this year ... which highlighted FP and PM as good bets.

 

[Scooby91]

I've got the same for FP and PM any race but I'm trying to take my own bets out of the equation ...

I just don't see the 2m chasers so far (bar those 2 and Labaik) as being better than the horses over further.

I actually wrote somewhere that I think its a really average group of novice hurdlers that are chasing this year ... which highlighted FP and PM as good bets.

I deffinately see them better. But it's all a game of opinions.

 

[Hurricane fly]

HDB has said the vets are happy with Petit Mouchoir, and he’s on track for the Dublin festival in Feb.

 

[archie]

Any concerns that Sceau royal isn't a spring horse? A lot of his better form is early in a season?

I agree 9/1 had under estimated him though, think its a fair bet

If you take his UK form and split the season in two,
1st Oct to 15 Jan - 8 wins from 12 runs
16 Jan to 30 Apr - 0 wins from 5 runs

 

[Kevloaf]

If you take his UK form and split the season in two,
1st Oct to 15 Jan - 8 wins from 12 runs
16 Jan to 30 Apr - 0 wins from 5 runs

Very interesting. I certainly do put some weight in to it. Some horses are spring horses, some are not.

 

[Scooby91]

If you take his UK form and split the season in two,
1st Oct to 15 Jan - 8 wins from 12 runs
16 Jan to 30 Apr - 0 wins from 5 runs

Look at the quality of the races. And the fact that he's older has more experience now. He could have easily have won some cherry picked race in that time. And changed the stats.

 

[archie]

All stats are open to interpretation and opinion. I'd say it's reasonably sound to assume that Brain Power is better right-handed and kick him out on those grounds. With Sceau Royal it's a little more even because in his first season he definitely seemed better early season whereas last season his best RPR was in April and you'd say he kept his form fairly even through the season.
That said, his hurdle form was a little below championship form (best RPR in a handicap) and I usually prefer novice chasers who show more as hurdlers. I wouldn't discard him at this stage but I'd certainly have Footpad and Petit Mouchoir ahead of him.

 

[archie]

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