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Arkle 2018

archie said:
All stats are open to interpretation and opinion. I'd say it's reasonably sound to assume that Brain Power is better right-handed and kick him out on those grounds. With Sceau Royal it's a little more even because in his first season he definitely seemed better early season whereas last season his best RPR was in April and you'd say he kept his form fairly even through the season.
That said, his hurdle form was a little below championship form (best RPR in a handicap) and I usually prefer novice chasers who show more as hurdlers. I wouldn't discard him at this stage but I'd certainly have Footpad and Petit Mouchoir ahead of him.
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Looks a fair assessment.

Thanks for putting up the entries. Just had a look on hri only the racing post novice chase up so far.
I'd be disappointed if footpad got beat in that
 
archie said:
Avenir D'Une Vie, Jett, Le Martalin, 2 or 3 from Willie, 2 or 3 from Gordon?
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There's not much in there Archie for 2 miles. Tombstone probably runs but wants further.

I was quickly running to the exchanges for 3 figures on kilultagh vic for the stayers. To find out he's not priced up. Him and limini the only interesting ones I seen out of all the entries as a slight suprise all be it he block enters them.
 
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archie said:
All stats are open to interpretation and opinion. I'd say it's reasonably sound to assume that Brain Power is better right-handed and kick him out on those grounds. With Sceau Royal it's a little more even because in his first season he definitely seemed better early season whereas last season his best RPR was in April and you'd say he kept his form fairly even through the season.
That said, his hurdle form was a little below championship form (best RPR in a handicap) and I usually prefer novice chasers who show more as hurdlers. I wouldn't discard him at this stage but I'd certainly have Footpad and Petit Mouchoir ahead of him.
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Some fair points there.
Also, we shouldn't be running away with the idea the Henry 8th is a strong pointer to the Arkle, despite Altior winning last year the race isn't known for throwing up Arkle winners, in fact it may be that Altior is the only one in the races history to have doubled up at Cheltenham....
 
Is 25/1 e/w Movewiththetimesthe worst thing in the world here?

He ran really well over 2m4f but was outstayed by Finians. I'd be pretty sure he'd have the tow to go 2m and he will improve again with more chase experience.

Nichols is someone I love training chasers and I just can't write his one off into handicaps just yet.

If they could get a run into him over Christmas/New Year then one more novice chase early Feb to put him spot on, I'd like his chances. This does not look a renewal with a superstar. I cannot believe Footpad is fav- can't have him winning this whatsoever.
 
Yes in a short answer. Goes 2m4 at the weekend.
Well held by sceau royal / north hill Harvey over 2m.
Could go close over 2m4 at the weekend not the strongest race.

If you believe this is the race and footpad a poor fav. Always back your own judgement though.
 
Bunk Off Early has entries at Fairyhouse and Thurles at the weekend.
The roll of honour for the Fairyhouse race reads
2016 Yorkhill
2015 Killultagh Vic
2014 Un De Sceaux
 
archie said:
Bunk Off Early has entries at Fairyhouse and Thurles at the weekend.
The roll of honour for the Fairyhouse race reads
2016 Yorkhill
2015 Killultagh Vic
2014 Un De Sceaux
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Now, that can't be the race that someone highlighted as a pointer to the JLT because I don't remember UDS being in it ... might have been over Christmas?
 
Kevloaf said:
Now, that can't be the race that someone highlighted as a pointer to the JLT because I don't remember UDS being in it ... might have been over Christmas?
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grade 2 novice chase at leopardstown couple weeks into January is the race i take note of mullins JLT horse.
 
SAMCRO said:
grade 2 novice chase at leopardstown couple weeks into January is the race i take note of mullins JLT horse.
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Yes that is the race!

Sir Des champs,
Djakadam
Vautour
Killultagh Vic

I see Bacardys is entered in the same race although also in the 2m7f rave on the same day.

Wrong thread though for this... back to Bunk... best of the Mullins likely runners ... good sign!
 
Some very interesting points here....

Sceau Royal >>>> Up 8lb to 161

“The novice race was good, really good,” says Nash. “I have no qualms in saying that Sceau Royal is the best two-mile novice chaser we’ve seen this season and he’s now rated 161.

“That’s 4lb higher than Altior was after winning the same race last year. His jumping was deadly, he was very quick through the air. I was really impressed as it was such a good race. Brain Power was a 160 hurdler, North Hill Harvey was 155, Finian’s Oscar looked outpaced but was 155.”

The BHA don’t publish official figures for Irish races, but they do keep their own performance figures in case the need arises and Nash kindly revealed he’s pencilled in Footpad at 152+ following his chasing debut.

Of course, we’ll see a more accurate representation of Footpad’s abilities as a novice chaser when he lines up in the Grade One Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown on day one of their Christmas festival. But, as things stand, the Arkle market doesn’t reflect what Footpad and Sceau Royal have achieved over fences on the track.
 
I like Sceau Royal, but find it hard to believe he ran to a rating of 161 on Saturday.

FO obviously didn't run to his rating, BP was too keen and had nothing left when it mattered, and I don't think NHH is the same horse away from Cheltenham.

What does everyone else think?
 
I think it means ratings are to be taken with a pinch of salt, as Altior would have won that race easily in his novice season...

However, that is 'season-on-season' - I think in the same season they can be useful, and I did think it was worth highlighting the difference between what has "been achieved" and the fact they're the wrong way round. However, we won't get to find out what Footpad's rating will be next time... and he might not get chance to post a big number.

.....although I stand by my pinch of salt line...
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I like Sceau Royal, but find it hard to believe he ran to a rating of 161 on Saturday.

FO obviously didn't run to his rating, BP was too keen and had nothing left when it mattered, and I don't think NHH is the same horse away from Cheltenham.

What does everyone else think?
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I genuinely agree with the guy who wrote the article on all points. . Sceau royal is an excellent ew bet imo.
 
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I think a fair few of us are on SR at big prices but I wouldn't be confident of him beating PM or Footpad.

From a personal point of view I hope they run Footpad in the JLT but not sure that'll happen.
 
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