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Arc de Triomphe

charlie

charlie

Fat Jockey Patron (est. March 2021)
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I've been all over Hukum for a while now @ 6/1. B365 are now best priced 11/2 and he's as short as 9/2 elsewhere.

At 4 (2021) he looked like a very solid Group 3 horse, nothing more. That busy season plus his stop start career has led to him being the most underrated flat horse in training IMO, evidenced by him winning lots at decent prices and not being clear favourite for the Arc when he should be (IMO for course).

In 2022 he went to Dubai where he won a Group 2 and finished a length back in the Group 1 in prep for the Coronation Cup where he pissed in, posting an RPR of 124 before getting injured. It was a really taking performance but at that point it was a one off.

He then came back after 356 days off and downed Derby winner Desert Crown in what I thought was spectacular fashion. Hukum was caught on heels a furlong out, Desert Crown gets first run and Hukum powers past him going away, running to an RPR of 125. At that point you're thinking 'ok, that was impressive but he's had an injury, I need to see him do that again'.

He then wins the King George running to an RPR of 128. Not sure I entirely agree with Jim Crowley when he said 'that's the best race I've ever ridden in', but the form looks quality and its impossible at this point after 3 superb runs not to think of Hukum as a proper top level Group 1 horse. He's beat Prix de Saint-Cloud Group 1 winner Westover. He brushed aside King Of Steel with ease. You have Irish Champion Stakes 2nd Luxembourg 8L back. It was just mustard and rock solid.

I like to think of Hukum as solid, but he's actually a top quality 128 rated Group 1 racehorse. He's the only horse quoted in the Arc market who's posted RPR's of 124 or higher on his last 3 starts. There are plenty quoted around him in the market that have never run anyway near that level. He's had a break and we know he runs well fresh. We know he's not ground dependent and will go on good or soft. We know he stays well. Everything about him looks prime for a winning Arc and he ticks box after box.

The elephant in the room is his age. The stats brigade will tell you a 6yo has never won an Arc so he doesn't fit the profile, but it's not putting me off in what looks an average line up.

The top of the market is shit IMO. Ace Impact makes zero appeal whatsoever at 7/2. The French form has taken plenty of knocks and he's never run to a consistently high level. I don't think beating Al Riffa by less than a length is anywhere near good enough and he's ground dependent. I'd pause for thought at 7/1 so 7/2 is bin all day long.

Feed The Flame is 13/2 having just been beaten at 1/2 by a German Derby winner. That wont be good enough to beat Hukum. Savethelastdance is 10/1 and heavily dependent on bottomless ground. Losing to Bluestocking took a form knock this weekend. She could start now and still not win, zero interest. You then have a pocket of interesting horses at 10, 11 and 12/1 in Westover, Emily Upjohn and Continuous who are all interesting and probably worth covering and talking about me, but then not much else.

Hukum was 14's pre King George, then he went 8's which was snaffled. He was cut to 6's which I took and now he is as short at 9/2. I think he'll go off clear favourite and will win.If you really want to be a slag stick him in a double with Vauban to win the Melbourne Cup. That a s proper vibe.




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Hope you are right

I used the hills epic boost to back him at 28/1

He certainly ticks all the boxes

Granted a clear run it's hard not to see him going close
 
Morley Street said:
Love your confidence Charlie… what makes you think that Ace Impact is ground dependent?
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My interpretation of what the trainer said is he doesn't settle well early in his races so Demuro has to cover him up to settle him then deliver him late. Making a sweeping charge from the rear is easier on good ground for quick horses like him that it is on soft or heavy, and thats before you factor in that 1m4f is an unknown for him. His last two races are a good examples of that playing out IMO. Obviously won both, but I don't think he stands a chance over further on soft ground. Hukum will eat him alive.Happy for Ace Impact backers to bring me down a peg or two, but I just don't understand why he's favourite. He's beaten Al Riffa less than a length and he experienced all sorts of bother. He won the Prix du Jockey Club well, but the form of that race takes knock after knock (Continuous clearly ran way below par). It's just a terrible bet at the prices IMO. I'd rather back Al Riffa @ 33/1.
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charlie said:
My interpretation of what the trainer said is he doesn't settle well early in his races so Demuro has to cover him up to settle him then deliver him late. Making a sweeping charge from the rear is easier on good ground for quick horses like him that it is on soft or heavy, and thats before you factor in that 1m4f is an unknown for him. His last two races are a good examples of that playing out IMO. Obviously won both, but I don't think he stands a chance over further on soft ground. Hukum will eat him alive.Happy for Ace Impact backers to bring me down a peg or two, but I just don't understand why he's favourite. He's beaten Al Riffa less than a length and he experienced all sorts of bother. He won the Prix du Jockey Club well, but the form of that race takes knock after knock (Continuous clearly ran way below par). It's just a terrible bet at the prices IMO. I'd rather back Al Riffa @ 33/1.
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I see your point re running style and I agree that he would be most effective on good ground but I wouldn’t say that makes him ground dependent. He has won on heavy ground, albeit at a lesser level… I would see him no more ground dependent as Hukum’s preference for some cut.
Time will tell but I think overall you may be underestimating him… yes you can pick holes in the Jockey Club form but equally there are some positives and it depends what aspects of the form each of us give most credence too… I’m a very much a time man, particularly on the flat.
I do think Hukum has an excellent chance but prefer the French form this year… the ground will no doubt be important one way or another… all the best with the double and I’m most definitely on Vauban! :eagerness:
 
Morley Street said:
I see your point re running style and I agree that he would be most effective on good ground but I wouldn’t say that makes him ground dependent. He has won on heavy ground, albeit at a lesser level… I would see him no more ground dependent as Hukum’s preference for some cut.
Time will tell but I think overall you may be underestimating him… yes you can pick holes in the Jockey Club form but equally there are some positives and it depends what aspects of the form each of us give most credence too… I’m a very much a time man, particularly on the flat.
I do think Hukum has an excellent chance but prefer the French form this year… the ground will no doubt be important one way or another… all the best with the double and I’m most definitely on Vauban! :eagerness:
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That win on heavy ground was vs absolute dross though in a 3 runner race. Ace Impact's performances on good to soft have been solid, but it was on genuinely good ground where he was seen to best effect IMO.

I know Hukum has been effective with cut, but where does 'preference for some cut' come from? His last 6 runs on genuinely good ground reads 117111. His best performance to date was on good to soft ground in the King George. After Sandown OB said “He’s won on a range of grounds, but I know speaking to Sheikha Hissa after he won at Sandown that Jim (Crowley) had mentioned to her that he’s so much better on good ground and we want to look after him this year – we won’t risk him on fast ground'. He also said 'it's vital that he has good ground'. Based on all that I'd put forward that Hukum doesn't want cut at all and based on the forecast I think everything will fall right. Few days of rain this week in Paris but Arc week is set to be sunny 24 degree weather. Obviously that will suit the above, but I think Hukum is in a different parish to Ace Impact so it doesnt really worry me.
 
charlie said:
That win on heavy ground was vs absolute dross though in a 3 runner race. Ace Impact's performances on good to soft have been solid, but it was on genuinely good ground where he was seen to best effect IMO.

I know Hukum has been effective with cut, but where does 'preference for some cut' come from? His last 6 runs on genuinely good ground reads 117111. His best performance to date was on good to soft ground in the King George. After Sandown OB said “He’s won on a range of grounds, but I know speaking to Sheikha Hissa after he won at Sandown that Jim (Crowley) had mentioned to her that he’s so much better on good ground and we want to look after him this year – we won’t risk him on fast ground'. He also said 'it's vital that he has good ground'. Based on all that I'd put forward that Hukum doesn't want cut at all and based on the forecast I think everything will fall right. Few days of rain this week in Paris but Arc week is set to be sunny 24 degree weather. Obviously that will suit the above, but I think Hukum is in a different parish to Ace Impact so it doesnt really worry me.
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For me, slowish ground helps Hukum use his strengths in maintaining a high gallop and outbattling horses at the business end. He’s not got an immediate burst of pace and has not won any of his races in a time faster than the standard. On good ground I don’t see him being fast enough to contain the likes of Ace Impact or for that matter, Feed the Flame’s finishing kick.
But as I said I do give him a solid chance on g/s or slower, as this blunts the weapons of the faster horses. Not long to wait now anyhow, good luck!
 
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Savethelastdance ruled out for the rest of the season for any that were interested in her. This news is on Twitter.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Savethelastdance ruled out for the rest of the season for any that were interested in her. This news is on Twitter.
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Thanks COD. Given the forecast I suspect connections would have pulled from the race anyway
 
I took big prices EW on Westover the minute he went across the line in the Coronation Cup and have high hopes he can improve on his 6th last season on ground he would have hated. It was a huge run in hindsight and with the long range weather forecast looking pretty decent, I think hes a right solid EW chance at 11/1 still. In the King George, both Hukum and Westover didn't get great runs through the race (westover being 3/4 wide and even wider challenging into the straight, probably got there soon enough aswell. Hukum probably helped by being pulled into the race but did well to claw the 2nd back)

I personally would have it between the 2 of them at the prices, they've had a nice break since the KG and hopefully we get a decent ground Arc for a change.
 
Is anyone else weather watching? forecast looks dry so far but that could all change.
 
HoldenTheReins said:
Is anyone else weather watching? forecast looks dry so far but that could all change.
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I am keeping a close eye on it. It was good ground 10 days ago and despite lots of rain this week, next week is going to be dry with temperatures in the mid 20's pretty much all week. If the forecast is right it's uncharacteristically warm and dry for this time of year, so I'd be surprised if the word 'soft' appeared anywhere in the going description. Catch 22 as that will suit Ace Impact but it will also suit Hukum so bring it on.
 
charlie said:
I am keeping a close eye on it. It was good ground 10 days ago and despite lots of rain this week, next week is going to be dry with temperatures in the mid 20's pretty much all week. If the forecast is right it's uncharacteristically warm and dry for this time of year, so I'd be surprised if the word 'soft' appeared anywhere in the going description. Catch 22 as that will suit Ace Impact but it will also suit Hukum so bring it on.
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I imagine the weather could change some trainers planning and send some to the Arc or pull them etc. What forecast sites are you checking?
 
HoldenTheReins said:
I imagine the weather could change some trainers planning and send some to the Arc or pull them etc. What forecast sites are you checking?
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I strap a GoPro to a carrier pigeon who flys back and forth to Paris providing me with live updates
 
I'm sure I said this last year but... 3/1 Kinross for the Foret looks generous.
 
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