Yet to look properly at the card so but done the same trend analysis as yesterday based on those who ran at Chelts and are running, I've condensed it to avoid the novel like yesterdays to make it a bit more digestible, focusing on last 3 years of Aintree runnings:
2m 4f Handicap Hurdle = worth looking at those who ran festival handicap 6 of the top 5 last 3 years have done so, running into a place at Chelts is a plus but not a must. With 12/15 of those finishing top 5 carrying under 11st it means Whatsupwithyou maybe worth a look, or maybe even Strong Glance who has course form.
2m Top Novice Hurdle = those who don't run at the festival do best here, so plus for Dusart who for me does look a good favourite here.
3m Mildmay Novice Chase = The RSA form stands up here usually so Fiddlerontheroof or The Big Breakaway could be good e/w options. The past 2 winners have been horses stepping up from the JLT trip which does then lead you to Chantry House.
2m 4f Melling Chase = Festival form stands up again, usually with those stepping up from the Champion Chase. There isn't really anyone fitting that but Politologue is stepping up in trip of course. The best Cheltenham form is Fakir D'doudaries with his 2nd in the Ryanair, I personally think he's in with a good shout of finally hitting the front and getting a win
2m 5f Topham Chase = some interesting stats I found here. So slightly more of those top 5 each year skipped the festival, this gives plenty of options and I've not looked at the card yet properly to comment on who stands out here. Of those who ran at the Festival you want to avoid anyone who placed as only 1 of the 7 that finished top 5 ran at Cheltenham. Now interestingly on that last stat there are 2 horses that fit the criteria of not placing (using top 5/6 for that definition) and they are The Morning Vicar & Caribean Boy, both running at Chelts just outside the places. Both these horses are Henderson trained who strangely enough has had a horse in 4th place each of the last 3 years! Of the 2 I'm personally a fan of Caribean Boy and will likely back him as I think he ran a nice race in the Plate and Aintree may well suit.
3m Sefton Novices Hurdle = Mix bag here but horses that have been held back for this do well for a place. Henderson's form in last 3 years reads as 2, 1, 1 and he has Gallyhill & Bothwell Bridge running. Gallyhill may be worth a chancing at 10/1 e/w as its clear a lot is thought of him and he should see this 3m out. Last 3 winners have come straight from cheltenham with the last 2 being Santini & Champ, so the quality has risen in this recently, giving a nice nod to Bravemansgame.
2m Conditionals & Ams Hurdle = only 3 of the top 5s over last 3 years went Cheltenham; 3rd - Sternrubin 10th County (down 3lb), 4th - All Set To Go 18th County (down 4lb)
& 1st - Chief Justice 12th Boodles (down 2lb). So all 3 lost a couple of lbs from a bad chelts run. No one in this race had a run as bad as those 3 had at the festival but Leoncavallo does fit this slightly with his 6th in the Pipe, he has since been dropped 2lb for that and considering that was his first race for 160 days he may well strip better for this so worth keeping an eye on.
to keep their feet on the ground.
