Aintree Day 1 2024

[Hurricane fly]

Declarations for the Grade 1s are now in.

Manifesto Novices' Chaserunners and riders
Blow Your Wad Stan Sheppard
Colonel Harry Gavin Sheehan
Ginny's Destiny Harry Cobden
Grey Dawning Harry Skelton
Il Etait Temps Paul Townend

4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle runners and riders
Dirty Den Sean Bowen
Intellotto TBC
Kalif Du Berlais Harry Cobden
Nurburgring TBC
Sir Gino Nico De Boinville
Kargese Paul Townend

Aintree Bowl Chase runners and riders
Ahoy Senor Derek Fox
Bravemansgame Harry Cobden
Corbetts Cross Mark Walsh
Gentlemansgame Darragh O'Keeffe
Gerri Colombe Jack Kennedy
Shishkin Nico de Boinville
Thunder Rock Sean Bowen

Aintree Hurdle runners and riders
Beacon Edge Jack Kennedy
Bob Olinger Rachael Blackmore
Impaire Et Passe Paul Townend
Langer Dan Harry Skelton
Mahons Glory Sam Twiston-Davies
Nemean Lion Richard Patrick
Luccia James Bowen
Marie's Rock Nico de Boinville
​

I'm surprised Mullins hasn't sent anyone for the bowl, even if just to try and pick up some place money.

Corbetts Cross into open company, could be part of the decision making around the National or the Gold Cup next year.

Small fields in the Novice Chase and Juvenile but high quality nonetheless

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Have to say looking at the entries for Thursday and Friday this looks the best quality aintree for a while

 

[Quevega]

The Juvenile hurdle looks a good betting opportunity for me, others may disagree.

The 4-1 Kargese vs odds on Sir Gino was too tempting, in a near 2 horse race IMO. Kalif might burst my balloon and the others are not completely out of it.

Now best priced 7-2 vs 5/6

But the shape of this race and the prices are perfect for a reasonable bet.
Kargese has the best form without a doubt.

Rated 142+ timeform vs 143p Sir Gino.
Offial rating of 141 vs 145
RPR bests 139 vs 143

So with a mares allowance she is ahead on all three main rating's.

I think the prices are wrong on known facts, but understand the visual impression and potential clearly evident in Sir gino's last run, so anyone punting Sir Gino at odds on is banking on improvement and the relative freshness in comparison, and also that Henderson has his back to normal.

But I'm happy to back against him with Kargese at the prices even though I'd probably have Sir Gino the most likely winner !
I think I'd just have them a lot closer in the market (maybe 6-4 vs 5-2) so have taken 5pts at 4-1.

Interesting what the SP might be though as she was only second at Cheltenham and the Henderson horse has a lot of fans wanting their money back for the no show at the festival.
Basically I'm not completely certain the market will move them closer together.
But happy with 4-1 or 7-2 either way.

On the rides they might get given I do worry about the long enough run in for a mare that over races early on, but hopefully Townend has spoken with Danny and holds on for as long as he can.

Edit - Not far off a similar story in the first race also 9-2 B365 Ginny's looks value vs Skeltons

 

[Nwfb89]

Mullins doesn't sound very confident on Impaire et passe in the Aintree hurdle going by his sl column

 

[Benjy23]

Some interesting contests tomorrow but not sure I can actually find a bet. The above muggy each way double is probably a fair shout for an interest, might get involved. Although I'd like to see Sir Gino actually being a weapon for the benefit of next season.

Path Doroux each way is my other possible bet.
​​​
What'll happen though is I'll have a bet in every race by mid morning.

Didn't want to start a Day 2 topic for this but... Didn't know Icare Allen had moved to Jonjo. Can't say it's a positive and I won't be backing but it's a bit of news :welcoming:

 

[Lobos]

Luccia ran a great race in the Champion Hurdle to be a close 3rd in Heavy ground with Nicky's horse under a massive cloud. I'd mark that performance up and she looks a big price in the Aintree Hurdle getting the ridiculous 7lbs. Hendos record in the race is brilliant as well.

Benny's King was 2nd in last year's Foxhunter and could go one better as he loves deep ground.

Ahoy Senor always runs a massive race at Aintree. Loves the place and Ginny's Destiny might appreciate the track more than Grey Dawning.

Those would be my 4 EW on the first day.

 

[JF26x]

Is anyone else having a bet on Baby Kate tomorrow? Seems as if she’s been tucked away waiting for this after the run in November and I’m surprised she is still 11/4.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

I was contemplating a decent sized double on grey dawning and impaire et certainty

But iv just got a feeling after putting in an unusually good round of jumping in the turner's that grey dawning will take a couple of fences home with him

Very annoyed with myself for not taking the 7/2+ that was available on impaire

So will end up just leaving it tomorrow unless he drifts

 

[Benjy23]

Actually think Bob O is turning into a bet now at the prices. Quite easy to say having got the value with IEP. But I'm going to flip them and make Bob O my winner. Be in big trouble when neither win mind :welcoming:

 

[Zachx02]

As its the foxhunter you never know what will happen but on my tiktok of all places I was watching someone's picks and he said he spoke to Ruby walsh whilst presenting for racing breaks recently and said he gave a good word for Captain Tommy, 40/1 best price

 

[FinalFurlong91]

As its the foxhunter you never know what will happen but on my tiktok of all places I was watching someone's picks and he said he spoke to Ruby walsh whilst presenting for racing breaks recently and said he gave a good word for Captain Tommy, 40/1 best price

It's on the line looks a dreadful favourite

Looked too slow for 3m2f at Cheltenham

As does Saint Roi in the 2m handicap chase

Can't jump has no chance

Queu them both sluicing in

I'm struggling with Thursdays racing. Friday looks a much better punting card.

I'd worry about grey dawning over the stiffer aintree fences but don't like anything against him

I'd worry about the ground for Sir Gino, he's a Ferrari and Ferraris dont often like bottomless ground. Kargese looks the play but iv missed the 3s.

I fancy shiskin but not at 5/2-11/4. Again iv missed the 3s

Even willie mullins is putting me off impaire et cert, he sounded very cool on his chances.

Whereas I like the look of 2 in most of Fridays races.

 

[MTR]

Friday looks a brilliant and competitive card

 

[Big Bucks]

Jane Mangan give anything a mention for foxhunters? Read a hills blog but she didn't have a selection for that race! :boxing:

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I'm setting off to the course shortly but these are my brief thoughts.

1.45. Ginny's Destiny is over priced on the Turners run. He pushed GD all the way to the line and although he didn't make a mistake at the last two fences, he lost ground at them. They are closely matched but the price difference is too big for all GD is the most likely winner. 1pt Ginny's Destiny 9/2

2.20. Im not backing a Henderson winner until they prove they are well and his form since Cheltenham has to be a worry. The Irish could play strong hands here and I've backed both, with the reverse forecast thrown in for good measure.
1pt Kargese 7/2
1pt Nurburgring 9/1
​​​​​​0.5pt Reverse FC

2.55. Again, keen to take on Hendo so have this between Gerri and Corbetts. Both are in various multiples with horses throughout the week.

3.30. Hope Impaire Et Passe can bounce back here. I took a chance at 5/1 when prices first came out and will leave it at that.

4.05. Wouldn't say I'm confident but i took big prices about Annamix (16s and 12s) a week or so ago. Rory Delargy made a decent case for Lieutenant Rocco on the PP podcast so added him for some each way interest.

4.40. No win bet yet but have Sans Bruit in a few speculative multiples.

5.15. Backed the Crawford horse to minimum stakes.


Good luck everyone. :nevreness:

 

[twig78]

I've done the Mullins treble for today:
Il Etait Temps (think will improve for the middle trip and I just still can't get on board with either the GD's)
Kargese (Same as Faugheen_Machine I want to see Hendo's running first. Mare's allowance in the mud)
Baby Kate (Laid out for this I think)

 

[amtrakker]

An EW longshot Lucky 15 for pennies...

3.30 Mahons Glory - ran best RPR last time out and could sneak a place if the principals don't give their running
4.05 Lieutenant Rocco - Syd Hosie stable in great form and Will Biddick now up
4.40 Guy - good conditional takes 7lb off to negate rise from last time out win; placed last time he rode for Nigel Twiston-Davies
5.15 Letterston Lily - Peter Bowen's only entry today, and already cut from 40 to 20s this morning

 

[BigChaang]

Lucky 15 today... 1.- Gerri colombe .... 2-55.
2.- Bob Olinger ........ 3-30.
3.- It's on the line ...... 4-05.
4.- Sans Bruit ............ 4-40.
......................................................................
Plus a Skelton E/W Treble .... Grey Dawning - 1-45., Unexpected Party - 4-40 ., Honky Tonk Highway - 5-15 . .... Good Luck All.:apple:.

 

[archie]

With the uncertainty about the going, I may not bother today or at least wait until after the first race. However, I am interested in Annamix in the Foxhunter. Course form, form in heavy and presumably bought with this race in mind. I'd rather back two to win than one each way over the big fences and Emmet's horse is the big unknown.

 

[Eggs]

…Nurburgring NR, seems odd considering Kevin Blake tipped him on telly an hour ago.

 

[Glasgow Ronnie]

Lucky 15 for today
kargese
Impaire et passe
Sans bruit
Honky tonk highway