‘26 FRED WINTER Juv H’cap Hd

[Rooster Booster]

Spot on kid

As always …don’t even bother to wait for the official rating any more

 

[Eggs]

….unconfirmed, but according to X these are NOT entered;

In my Teens
Minella Study
Novak Mille
One Horse Town
North Shore
Parchment
King Al
Mojito Des Mottes

 

[Eggs]

….post #1 updated with latest trends.

 

[TonyGalopin]

Hallgarten and Novum Wines realised no one was going to say the full name aloud and dropped out? Now appearing as the McCoy Contractors Fred Winter.

 

[darlojim]

Mustang Du Breuil
McCoy Contractors Juvenile Handicap Hurdle, 14-1
JCB Triumph Hurdle, 16-1
I was very pleased with his debut win at Doncaster. It's a stiff track and he’ll get further in time. He’s in the Adonis Hurdle on Saturday as he needs to have had three runs to get in the Fred Winter. He’ll be a nice horse.



Interesting.....

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Amazingly the last 10 winners of this race either started out their careers over hurdles in France or as flat horses in Ireland, split 60/40 in favour of the flat Irish horses.

Taking this into account, and making the assumption this trend 'sticks' you'd be able to get rid of 29 of the current field, including some near the head of the market. They are:

Ammes
Bertutea
Bibe Mus
Galactique
Highland Crystal
Kizlyar
Klycot
La Luna Artista
Lord
Lynches Knock
Macktoad
Manganese
Manoir De Mirande
Minella Yoga
Mino Des Mottes
Misterdoc
Mode Avion
Munsif
Quinta Do Lago
Scarlet Moon
Secret Force
Selma De Vary
Senator
Sonic Pioneer
Sopelana
Tenter Le Tout
The Bellhop
Tralee Girl
Westlain

Make of it what you will, at some point that trend will break, it could be this season, for all I know.

You have to go back 12 seasons, when Hawk High won the race, to break this trend though.

 

[CJW]

Amazingly the last 10 winners of this race either started out their careers over hurdles in France or as flat horses in Ireland, split 60/40 in favour of the flat Irish horses.

Taking this into account, and making the assumption this trend 'sticks' you'd be able to get rid of 29 of the current field, including some near the head of the market. They are:

Ammes
Bertutea
Bibe Mus
Galactique
Highland Crystal
Kizlyar
Klycot
La Luna Artista
Lord
Lynches Knock
Macktoad
Manganese
Manoir De Mirande
Minella Yoga
Mino Des Mottes
Misterdoc
Mode Avion
Munsif
Quinta Do Lago
Scarlet Moon
Secret Force
Selma De Vary
Senator
Sonic Pioneer
Sopelana
Tenter Le Tout
The Bellhop
Tralee Girl
Westlain

Make of it what you will, at some point that trend will break, it could be this season, for all I know.

You have to go back 12 seasons, when Hawk High won the race, to break this trend though.

Interesting! ... Looks for Saratoga ..

 

[Eggs]

No winner had previously raced at Cheltenham​

Irish trained have taken the last eight, J O'Brien and G Elliott with three each.​

JP McManus has owned three of the last six winners​

JP McManus has owned the most recent three favs. All SP under 7/2, all well beaten.​

P Nicholls has run 25 FRE breds. Three winners and eight placed​

GER Bred are 2-5 since 2020.​

Four of the last seven winners ran in the same Naas 4-Y-0 Novice Hurdle​

No filly has won since Une Artiste in 2012​

Two of the seven runners carrying a penalty have won​

Seven of the last nine from the top 12 on the racecard​

No winner that started its career under National Hunt rules i.e. non flat did so in Britain or Ireland​

Puturhands together the first in seven to have raced against older horses​

Band Of Outlaws 2019 only fav to win since 2010​

Jazzy Matty only winner in headgear since 2014​

None of the last 13 had won more than two hurdles​

11 of the last 12 BHA rated between 125 and 139​

W Mullins. H de Bromhead yet to win​

In seven of the last 12 a hood wearer has finished in the first five home. No hood wearers in 2025.​

Jazzy Matty first winner ever to be BF last time from any GB or IRE race​

​

Race Distance - 2 miles and abt half a furlong. Going 21 yrs. Either won last time or beaten in at least a 10k hurdle. Ratings 125 to 139. Won't help that much. Ran in the previous 34 days or in a Graded race or has only run in France. May have competed against older horses last time out. Not a filly. Not a conditional/amateur rider unless already had a winner today. Winning in headgear not in vogue. Irish trained very much so. Horse wearing a hood respected but unlikely winner. Last run not in a handicap. The rare penalised runners have punched above their numbers. Trifecta Perm due covering the front four in the market though has become a little more punter friendly recently. Not BF last time. Paul Nicholls and G Elliott target this. If any trainer/jockey has had a winner already today, back their runners. W Mullins, Venetia Williams or Philip Hobbs yet to shine. Winner never ran here before. Check Naas Feb 8th, the 16k euro rated 4 yr old hurdle.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Saratoga 125 in Ireland
Selma De Vary 136
Barbizon 128
Bertutea 132
Dignam 127
Genealogy 117
Glen To Glen 124
Hardy Stuff 124
Highland Crystal 133
Immediate Effect 128
Kilmeaden 126
Lynches Knock 120
Madness D'elle 127
Manoir De Mirande 124
Mino Des Mottes 121
Mode Avion 128
Munsif 121
Ole Ole 124
Secret Force 122

 

[EnvoiAlien]

Do we need to add a few UK pounds to each of these @ComplyOrDie ?

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Do we need to add a few UK pounds to each of these @ComplyOrDie ?

Oh absolutely

 

[Exar Essay]

The British capper has the chance to do something funny with Genealogy ...

 

[darlojim]

The British capper has the chance to do something funny with Genealogy ...

He could do it to a few of the horses with the marks from what I've seen

But I won't entertain it for some

 

[ComplyOrDie]

The British capper has the chance to do something funny with Genealogy ...

Think he won't stick him too high, I reckon he'll struggle to get in personally.

22 British horses higher than him, and a ton of Irish horses too.

Even if he gets a few lbs I'd say he's going to struggle!

 

[darlojim]

Think he won't stick him too high, I reckon he'll struggle to get in personally.

22 British horses higher than him, and a ton of Irish horses too.

Even if he gets a few lbs I'd say he's going to struggle!

I think thats what he's saying

Don't put him up so he won't make the cut.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I think thats what he's saying

Don't put him up so he won't make the cut.

Yeah, I know

But even if he does stick him up a few lbs he's still going to struggle anyway.

Nothing to suggest he should get too much more unless he's taking that run behind Winston Junior literally.

 

[Lobos]

Will Winston and potentially others bypass this and take their chance in the Triumph now that Narciso Has is out ?

 

[Exar Essay]

Yeah, I know

But even if he does stick him up a few lbs he's still going to struggle anyway.

Nothing to suggest he should get too much more unless he's taking that run behind Winston Junior literally.

It was meant tongue in cheek ... but there is a genuine issue. He got a performance figure of 120 for his run against Winston Junior. And that has been his best performance by far. So it's very difficult to see how the handicapper justifies a mark higher than that. And this year looks competitive enough that he might not be sufficiently high in the weights.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

It was meant tongue in cheek ... but there is a genuine issue. He got a performance figure of 120 for his run against Winston Junior. And that has been his best performance by far. So it's very difficult to see how the handicapper justifies a mark higher than that. And this year looks competitive enough that he might not be sufficiently high in the weights.

I get what you was saying and the funny thing for him to do is not raise him which was what I believe you may be on about? But even talking realistically, as you say above, he's not going to get an awful lot more, even if he moves him up to that rating performance he is still likely to miss out, IMO.

 

[Exar Essay]

I get what you was saying and the funny thing for him to do is not raise him which was what I believe you may be on about? But even talking realistically, as you say above, he's not going to get an awful lot more, even if he moves him up to that rating performance he is still likely to miss out, IMO.

Yes, I was initially suggesting it would be funny for that reason, assuming he'd probably sneak in at 122 or something. Then did the research and can see there's a real issue.