2027 The Prices on Offer

[Lobos]

Henderson immediately after Supreme re Old Park...



"He looks like a chaser in the making. You'd imagine that's what we do but nothing's cast in stone, he could do anything. But I'd expect he goes chasing next season."

 

[archie]

Old Park Star ratings compared to King Rasko Grey.

OR +5
RPR +8
Timeform +6 and a p

All subjective, of course, but feeds into the price difference.

It's interesting about how people read close finishes. Some are downgrading the Supreme form because of the close finish yet the King George had high (too high?) ratings for all 4 principles. Over the years, I'd say that Supreme form is a much better indicator for the next Arkle than the KG would be for the following Gold Cup.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I've backed 3 for the Arkle already. Sober Glory out of the Supreme and AOI and KRG from the Turners.

Like @Quevega, I went looking for the Mullins Arkle horse and his Punchestown entry over 2 mile sealed the deal. Flutter have since cut him to 20s but that price is still fair enough imo.

 

[Benjy23]

Other potential Mullins horses are Anzadam, who's probably just not that good.

And He's on Fire. Not sure he's a 2 miler is he? Guess he could step back after Punchestown where he seems to be well fancied.

 

[darlojim]

Like @Quevega, I went looking for the Mullins Arkle horse and his Punchestown entry over 2 mile sealed the deal. Flutter have since cut him to 20s but that price is still fair enough imo.

The fact that He's on Fire was taken out of the 2m race also, unless he has had an issue that is, we'll see on Monday

The frenchie Magnifico Conti going chasing too by all accounts

 

[Exar Essay]

Narciso Has would be of interest if we knew he was injury free.

I'd want to see AOI and King Rasko over a fence first, particularly the latter as Willie's first comment was "Champion Hurdle".

AOI's page is hard to make sense of and nothing in KRG's breeding screams chaser. I'm not sure whether Gailways want fences yet - Jimmy Du Seuil didn't take to them. And his damsire hasn't produced a chaser yet either. In fact he's had very few NH progeny.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

The fact that He's on Fire was taken out of the 2m race also, unless he has had an issue that is, we'll see on Monday

The frenchie Magnifico Conti going chasing too by all accounts

I wonder if he has had a set back. Thought he'd have been given the entry at least

 

[darlojim]

I wonder if he has had a set back. Thought he'd have been given the entry at least

Hopefully not the case
Been hammered into 5/4 with flutter so they don't seem to think so.

Willie was pretty adamant that he would get further when winning @ Fairyhouse so might not have seen him as a 2miler

 

[Benjy23]

Narciso Has would be of interest if we knew he was injury free.

Be interesting to see what they do with him next year, all being well.

5 year olds still don't win the Arkle though!

 

[Hurricane fly]

It's interesting about how people read close finishes. Some are downgrading the Supreme form because of the close finish yet the King George had high (too high?) ratings for all 4 principles. Over the years, I'd say that Supreme form is a much better indicator for the next Arkle than the KG would be for the following Gold Cup.

I went looking to see if there is a correlation between supreme winning distances and Arkle performance but actually, there has been 1 horse (Shishkin) do the double in the last 9 years and only 3 since the foot and mouth cancellation year (Douvan and Altior).

The Gold Cup / King George goes a bit further back for its last success - Kauto - but in the same time frame also has 3 double ups (Kicking King and Best Mate).

So there is definitely some bias in the Supreme / Arkle trend probably because we remember great horses doing the double.

 

[Benjy23]

Two out of three of those Supreme and Arkle winning horses are Hendos. And in the same timeframe he's had three Supreme winners, the other being Constitution Hill. Who you'd have to say had a very different profile than the others. I'd be very surprised if Old Park Star didn't go to the Arkle.

Appreciate 'unlucky' isn't what you're looking for in an antepost bet but I'd have both Marine National and Kopek Des Bordes as recent examples of horses who could very easily have added to that Supreme and Arkle list.

 

[Quevega]

Since divan and altior only four supreme winners went chasing the season after
Shishkin won
Marine got injured
Slade steel was poor
Kopek arguably unlucky

 

[archie]

Two out of three of those Supreme and Arkle winning horses are Hendos. And in the same timeframe he's had three Supreme winners, the other being Constitution Hill. Who you'd have to say had a very different profile than the others. I'd be very surprised if Old Park Star didn't go to the Arkle.

Yes, when he has the ammunition, his aim is fairly true.

As for King Rasko Grey, I can't recall a Turners winner going on to win the Arkle although, of course, until recently the intermediate trip novice chase would have been a more natural progression.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Yes, when he has the ammunition, his aim is fairly true.

As for King Rasko Grey, I can't recall a Turners winner going on to win the Arkle although, of course, until recently the intermediate trip novice chase would have been a more natural progression.

Simonsig is the only one I can think of. Can't really think of many that have tried either.

 

[Wayward Lad]

Yes, when he has the ammunition, his aim is fairly true.

As for King Rasko Grey, I can't recall a Turners winner going on to win the Arkle although, of course, until recently the intermediate trip novice chase would have been a more natural progression.

Will the trend change as a result of the Jack Richard’s being a handicap now and therefore any Turners podium finishers need to either step up or down in trip if they go chasing the following season and if they are to be considered as an AP proposition for a race at the festival?

If KRG and AOI are not BANC horses then it’s either Arkle for chasing or Champ Hurde or maybe Stayers, if they stay hurdling. Maybe they start at 2m chasing and take if from there?

Maybe the Jack Richard’s change to a handicap could result in more graded novice hurdlers staying hurdling and benefit the CH and Stayers?

Looking at the podium finishers in the Arkle this year, then we have a champion novice hurdler, a handicap (near graded) hurdler and a champion Juvenile from the previous season, so the scope of where the winner will come from is pretty wide!

 

[archie]

Will the trend change as a result of the Jack Richard’s being a handicap now and therefore any Turners podium finishers need to either step up or down in trip if they go chasing the following season and if they are to be considered as an AP proposition for a race at the festival?

If KRG and AOI are not BANC horses then it’s either Arkle for chasing or Champ Hurde or maybe Stayers, if they stay hurdling. Maybe they start at 2m chasing and take if from there?

Maybe the Jack Richard’s change to a handicap could result in more graded novice hurdlers staying hurdling and benefit the CH and Stayers?

Looking at the podium finishers in the Arkle this year, then we have a champion novice hurdler, a handicap (near graded) hurdler and a champion Juvenile from the previous season, so the scope of where the winner will come from is pretty wide!

To be fair, the Jewson was only inaugurated (as a grade 2) in 2011 and only became a grade 1 in 2014. Open to correction but I don't see much evidence of Baring Bingham (Turners) winners going to the Arkle before 2011.

King Rasko Grey is a nice horse and his style of running may suit an Arkle but I think that his price reflects both the likelihood of him running in the race and his chances against the Supreme principals.

 

[Quevega]

The middle distance novice hurdle is similar to the arkle in respect of injuries and not going chasing
But aside from simonsig as a winner of both
The ballymore has produced a few arkle winners.

Gaelic warrior
Tidal bay
Duc des genievres

Not sure any of this matters to be fair
We’re just guessing at this stage on who might go chasing and how the novice form at the festival will work out
I like the turners form simply down to the number of runners
A basic way to look at it and possibly foolish I know.
Also think the front three in the supreme are likely decent also

 

[Lobos]

Would feel like a very strange year again if Henderson doesn't have a runner in either the Champion Hurdle or Champion Chase. Only happened this year by default.