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2026 Novice Hurdlers

ComplyOrDie said:
Should be in the Turners then!
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Faugheen would have been in the Supreme if Willie didn't have another weapon stable next door.😄

I think the Turners will suit MP better. He looks to have the natural speed for it, but he’s also bred to see it out - being out of the same dam as Might Bite.

I’m actually surprised more people weren’t taken by his maiden hurdle win. It’s up there with the best maiden performances I’ve seen.

I’d also be of the view that Roc Dino simply couldn’t go with him, rather than he was massively below par. It’s probably somewhere in between.

He looks made for the Turners, but JP seems to have other ideas!😭
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Faugheen would have been in the Supreme if Willie didn't have another weapon stable next door.😄

I think the Turners will suit MP better. He looks to have the natural speed for it, but he’s also bred to see it out - being out of the same dam as Might Bite.

I’m actually surprised more people weren’t taken by his maiden hurdle win. It’s up there with the best maiden performances I’ve seen.

I’d also be of the view that Roc Dino simply couldn’t go with him, rather than he was massively below par. It’s probably somewhere in between.

He looks made for the Turners, but JP seems to have other ideas!😭
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His debut was good, no denying that, but there’s no substance to it at this stage to warrant his price imo. If folk were on pre debut, possibly even post debut they’ll be happy with the price they have I suppose for a once raced maiden, but as previously mentioned how is he is so short on what he’s done?

WPM doesn’t have the usual shorty so seems folk are getting stuck into this lad because of the Faugheen comment and FOMO.

We were in a similar position with Salvator Mundi last year, 62 length maiden winner, a lot of hype around him because of the race in France against Sir Gino and that didn’t turn out too well, albeit I get they have different profiles coming into the race (ptp and French hurdles) and Mundi then won a graded raced.
 
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Craigy14 said:
His debut was good, no denying that, but there’s no substance to it at this stage to warrant his price imo. If folk were on pre debut, possibly even post debut they’ll be happy with the price they have I suppose for a once raced maiden, but as previously mentioned how is he is so short on what he’s done?

WPM doesn’t have the usual shorty so seems folk are getting stuck into this lad because of the Faugheen comment and FOMO.

We were in a similar position with Salvator Mundi last year, 62 length maiden winner, a lot of hype around him because of the race in France against Sir Gino and that didn’t turn out too well, albeit I get they have different profiles coming into the race (ptp and French hurdles) and Mundi then won a graded raced.
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Like you say, totally different profiles of those two horses.

MP was widely available at 16 - 12s after his debut. He was also 12s NRNB for the Supreme a fortnight ago, so it's not like he's been mega short immediately following the win. Just a sustained trimming of those odds the closer we've got to the race.

It's completely fair to take on the horse at current prices. If OPS and MP are the same price on the day, I'd imagine most would side with Hendo's horse. A classic case of form vs potential, and best of uk vs Ire - it's what makes Cheltenham so good.
 
We know what JP is willing to pay for a grade 1 novice hurdler after The New Lion business. I'm presuming the Souede's are waiting for that offer to come in this week. So if the late bid for him does happen.. Surely Joseph gets his preferred wish with a run in the Supreme and Mighty Park takes the more logical route to the Turners.

The birthday talk isn't exactly a stupid angle, he probably does want a fancied runner in the Supreme. I'd be more inclined to think he gets his runner in the race by shelling out a mil in a few days time though.
 
I wouldn’t be surprised if the deal has already been agreed and the JP team have been having it off on TTT for the Turners
It won’t suit me and most on here but it looks like Mighty Park Supreme and TTT Turners
 
The 4 biggest novice hurdle differences between Timeform and RPR.

Sober Glory 139p 148 RPR
Mighty Park 140P 148 RPR
Bambino Fever 139p 131 RPR
Thedeviluno 139p 145 RPR
 
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We don't know what OPS has been beating yet.
Yes, he's looked exciting. Yes, he's got the experience. Yes ,he travels and Jumps well. Yes, he's won at Cheltenham and is with the right trainer. Plenty of ticks apart from the main one.....form. It's currently an unknown v that of the Irish and unfortunately we'll not know until next Tuesday how they measure up.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Faugheen would have been in the Supreme if Willie didn't have another weapon stable next door.😄

I think the Turners will suit MP better. He looks to have the natural speed for it, but he’s also bred to see it out - being out of the same dam as Might Bite.

I’m actually surprised more people weren’t taken by his maiden hurdle win. It’s up there with the best maiden performances I’ve seen.

I’d also be of the view that Roc Dino simply couldn’t go with him, rather than he was massively below par. It’s probably somewhere in between.

He looks made for the Turners, but JP seems to have other ideas!😭
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Valid point re: Faugheen :ROFLMAO:

The maiden performance looked, visually, great, but he's beat a stablemate that looked 20kg too heavy, was taken wide the whole way round, and gave Mighty Park a soft lead. You could say Roc Dino held up the form with a close up 2nd to El Cairos, but he looked much much fitter than next day and without the mistake El Cairos could have been a 10-15 length minimum winner, if they really wanted too. The 3rd as well, although absolutely hammered, also got hammered next time out, even further behind Lauret's D'estruval, and then smashed again 30+ lengths in a handicap off 104! There's no substance to the form currently, IMO.

We've seen nothing in the way of speed from him yet, so absolutely no idea how quick he can go, think it was mostly 31-32mph stuff, but the ground wasn't great. He could be as slow enough 3 miler chaser, he is out of a Presenting mare, who produced Might Bite, after all. Looking at the size of him actually, you'd have to say he's a 3 miler chaser for the future, which makes the Supreme talk even more baffling. A couple have tried the Supreme > BANC route, but with no success.

You could argue Sober Glory was just as impressive, if not more impressive than Mighty Park, LTO, and I'm not scrambling to get him onside at double figures, nor do I think he gets close to Old Park Star.
 
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Lobos said:
We don't know what OPS has been beating yet.
Yes, he's looked exciting. Yes, he's got the experience. Yes ,he travels and Jumps well. Yes, he's won at Cheltenham and is with the right trainer. Plenty of ticks apart from the main one.....form. It's currently an unknown v that of the Irish and unfortunately we'll not know until next Tuesday how they measure up.
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OPS has the best form of all, doesn't he? The exception, if he goes, is TTT. But OPS has beaten some very consistent and good performers. Solider Reeves, Hurricane Pat, Glance At Midnight, Kingston Queen are all decent yardsticks who tend to run to between 130 and 135 RPR.

Certainly far superior form to Mighty Park, El Cairos, Leader D'Allier, Mydaddypaddy, Sober Glory, and others near the head of the market.

We'll never know the form of the British horses against the Irish until the festival these days. Neither really travels over.
 
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Lobos said:
We don't know what OPS has been beating yet.
Yes, he's looked exciting. Yes, he's got the experience. Yes ,he travels and Jumps well. Yes, he's won at Cheltenham and is with the right trainer. Plenty of ticks apart from the main one.....form. It's currently an unknown v that of the Irish and unfortunately we'll not know until next Tuesday how they measure up.
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Could you not argue this for every novice, until they ALL meet at the festival?

How do we know what the Irish have been beating? They've mostly only won maidens prior to the G1's, same as the horses Old Park Star has been beating, although he did beat a listed winner, in Hurricane Pat. His overall form, with one or two letting it down, is the most solid for me, from a his maiden win through to his win in the Supreme Trial.

Just to give this a little bit of substance.

Kempton (Maiden win):

2nd Un Sens La Vie - Won next time out, hammered on heavy ground in the William Hill Hurdle.
3rd Fortune Timmy - Won by 24 lengths next time out, finished 2l behind Kripticjim in Grade 2 Classic Novices Hurdle on trials day.

Cheltenham:

2nd Glance At Midnight - Hammered next time out in the Formby, this run only two weeks after his run against Old Park Star though, then went and finished 2nd in the Sidney Banks, behind Act Of Innocence.
3rd Kingston Queen - Won the Grade 2 Jane Seymour Mares Novices Hurdle at Warwick next time out.

Haydock (Supreme Trial):

2nd Hurricane Pat - Obviously not been seen since, but was 2 from 2 over hurdles, including a facile success in the listed hurdle at Sandown as previously mentioned.


FWIW, and I could be wrong here, I don't think the Irish 2 milers are up to much this season, and a big possibility El Cairos is the best of them without being given the chance to properly prove it. I certainly think he's the quickest, he just needs to jump better.
 
PP going 9/2 from 3/1 Mighty Park for the Supreme is surely telling...
 
The stats in the supreme suggest that Grade 1 winners who won last time out rarely lose. Only one horse fits that description - TTT.
 
From GaultStats (without sticking them all up) -

13 of the last 14 had won a Graded novice hurdle​

13 of the last 15 won last time out​

Since 2013 DRF 2m G1 Nov Hurdle winners are 5 - 7​

 
ComplyOrDie said:
From GaultStats (without sticking them all up) -

13 of the last 14 had won a Graded novice hurdle​

13 of the last 15 won last time out​

Since 2013 DRF 2m G1 Nov Hurdle winners are 5 - 7​

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How many of those DRF 2m G1 winners won by less than a length?
 
chunker86 said:
How many of those DRF 2m G1 winners won by less than a length?
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Not a clue. TTT not top of my list that's for sure.

FWIW I'm taking the 13 of the last 14 had won a Graded Novice Hurdle, so that opens up to a few other horses with chances, IF you take these trends literally.
 
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