• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

2026 Novice Hurdlers

riccirich said:
Not to keep going on about it, but one last post in case theres any lingering doubt 🤣

From my end, and most people's end I assume (cant speak for everyone obviously 🤣) none of the posts questioning who exactly these jp people are and whether they know what theyre talking about are in any way sly digs at you if thats how they might come across. Not questioning anything you heard or your mate or whoever.

Just basically trying to warn people if they didnt know already that we've seen similar situations like this before that ended up not turning out the way the market was suggesting, so basically dont do anything too drastic. And obviously I know you weren't saying to do anything drastic anyway 😂👍
Click to expand...
JP's milk man
 
riccirich said:
I just cant fully trust any of these market moves because despite the odds shortening, it just doesnt resemble people who are truly in the know betting on something they know is happening.

We saw what truly "in the know" market moves look like the other morning when constitution hill starting drifting like a barge to 5 times his original price and you could have any amount on him that you liked. And even in cases like that one it can still turn out to be wrong occasionally even when the move is so drastic.

But these jp mcmanus ones just dont add up. I first heard of fact to file movement for the ryanair a few days ago when a few hundred quid was placed on him one morning. I initially didnt think much of it, then thought I might as well back just to cover myself in case its true. I leisurely strolled on the exchange a few hours after the initial movement and put a couple hundred quid on at about 3.5. My question would be if that first bet that someone put on him that morning was ITK money, then why didnt they just clear out everything from his original price (around 4 or 5 I think) right down to 2? Why sporadically place a couple hundred at 5, then come on again later and have another bet at 3, then a couple days later have another big bet at 2.5. It doesnt make sense, if people truly knew they would've just cleared up all the bigger prices when they were available. They wouldn't be sending out a signal for others to see with one decent bet and then allowing people like me to stroll on and take 3.5, before they come on again a day later and take lower prices.

Similar with mighty park. A guy was apparently told by one of jp's people at a preview on Wednesday night I think that mighty park was going supreme. Which means jp's people have known since at least early this week that he goes supreme, and probably longer than that if true. So why not smash him in the market before yesterday and take everything available that was a lot bigger than his starting price would be? And then just lay off once news became public. Why would they once again be only placing a sporadic bet here and there and allowing regular punters to take big prices when they notice the movement? Why arent they snapping up the 9 available for the supreme right now on betfair if they know for definite, given he'd be half that if confirmed probably.

The moves may end up correct, but at the minute they just dont signal people acting on inside info that they know to be 100% true and acting on it. If anyone reading this was one of "jp's people" and you knew might park and fact to file were going supreme and ryanair, why would you not be backing mighty Parks prices in the supreme right now? And why would you not have been snapping up all the fact to file prices at 3-4 when you could? Instead of allowing people like me to take them.
Click to expand...
Who is in the know, and who isn't in the know? Were the people who initially backed Mighty Park, or anything similar at a big price, in the know, or were they doing no more than take a position on a race?
 
We say about Willie Bingo but this is what he said after Mighty Parks victory....

“When Mark Walsh got off him after he won at Fairyhouse, he said he looked at the big screen at the second last and couldn’t believe how far he was in front, having gone what he thought was a normal slow pace. Mark said his cruising speed must be huge and he’s a fantastic jumper. I think he must be right in the mix for the Supreme. He has to be a hell of a horse to do what he did and has huge natural ability.
“Winning by 38 lengths like he did the other day puts you into Faugheen-type territory. From day one I thought he was good enough to win a Champion Bumper with what he was showing me at home.”

No mention of Turners at all.

Casey also commented on how much speed he has.
 
Last edited:
He said this re Leader d'Allier....


“He was disappointing over Christmas but his win the other day at Punchestown, the way he ran and finished, puts him right in the Supreme with a chance. He is right in the mix, with plenty of experience. He had six runs on the Flat in France.”
 
And this re

King Rasko Grey​


“He was third to what I think are the two best novice hurdlers in Ireland at the Dublin Racing Festival (Talk The Talk and Ballyfad). I think he will come on for it and is right in the mix. I think he has enough speed for the Supreme, but with his run the other day you might be thinking Turners.”
 
Lobos said:
We sat about Willie Bingo but this is what he said after Mighty Parks victory....

“When Mark Walsh got off him after he won at Fairyhouse, he said he looked at the big screen at the second last and couldn’t believe how far he was in front, having gone what he thought was a normal slow pace. Mark said his cruising speed must be huge and he’s a fantastic jumper. I think he must be right in the mix for the Supreme. He has to be a hell of a horse to do what he did and has huge natural ability.
“Winning by 38 lengths like he did the other day puts you into Faugheen-type territory. From day one I thought he was good enough to win a Champion Bumper with what he was showing me at home.”

No mention of Turners at all.

Casey also commented on how much speed he has.
Click to expand...
This is now going round in circles, mullins said if you look at him 'you'd say turners'.

Those reports on that day were unfortunately up for interpretation.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Quevega
Lobos said:
We sat about Willie Bingo but this is what he said after Mighty Parks victory....

“When Mark Walsh got off him after he won at Fairyhouse, he said he looked at the big screen at the second last and couldn’t believe how far he was in front, having gone what he thought was a normal slow pace. Mark said his cruising speed must be huge and he’s a fantastic jumper. I think he must be right in the mix for the Supreme. He has to be a hell of a horse to do what he did and has huge natural ability.
“Winning by 38 lengths like he did the other day puts you into Faugheen-type territory. From day one I thought he was good enough to win a Champion Bumper with what he was showing me at home.”

No mention of Turners at all.

Casey also commented on how much speed he has.
Click to expand...
If i remember right this response was when he was specifically asked about the supreme. There was another quote around the same time where he was saying something like "looking at him you'd think turners", but he did sound like he'd have no bother running him in either.

But having said all that, he doesn't decide where he goes anyway.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CJW
Surely looking at him just means how he's made up not what he's done on the track ?
 
Casey re Mighty Park

'I think he's very good. I only ever rode him once in work, but he blew me away. It was before Christmas and he came right up behind a fast horse and could easily have taken him. I wasn't expecting it. He was second in a point, so I thought he might be a two-and-a-half-miler, but he didn't feel slow that day. He won an ordinary maiden hurdle at Fairyhouse when he jumped out and made all. It's hard to know what he achieved there but I do think he's very good.'

Again, not really saying either but suggests that he's more speed than they originally thought.
 
Mullins ran 5 in the Supreme, Turners and Spud race last season.

For a bit of fun lets play the Willie Mullins bracket game. whoever can guess the most right for each of the novice hurdle races wins the Willie Mullins chief of bingo award.

The rules - Pick 5 Mullins horses for the Supreme, Turners and AB. You get 1 point per correct answer and 3 bonus points if you call all of his runners in a race. Good luck, god bless!
 
  • Haha
Reactions: Craigy14
Brooksie said:
Mullins ran 5 in the Supreme, Turners and Spud race last season.

For a bit of fun lets play the Willie Mullins bracket game. whoever can guess the most right for each of the novice hurdle races wins the Willie Mullins chief of bingo award.

The rules - Pick 5 Mullins horses for the Supreme, Turners and AB. You get 1 point per correct answer and 3 bonus points if you call all of his runners in a race. Good luck, god bless!
Click to expand...

6 in them, not 5 o_O
 
Think it'll be more like 3 max a race this year
 
riccirich said:
Similar with mighty park. A guy was apparently told by one of jp's people at a preview on Wednesday night I think that mighty park was going supreme. Which means jp's people have known since at least early this week that he goes supreme, and probably longer than that if true. So why not smash him in the market before yesterday and take everything available that was a lot bigger than his starting price would be? And then just lay off once news became public. Why would they once again be only placing a sporadic bet here and there and allowing regular punters to take big prices when they notice the movement? Why arent they snapping up the 9 available for the supreme right now on betfair if they know for definite, given he'd be half that if confirmed probably.
Click to expand...
Waiting to see what the ground is?
 
Sortudo
Leader Dallier
Sober
The Reverend
Laurets Destruval

Mighty Park
King Rasko Grey
Saint baco
He's on Fire


Dr Steinberg
Espresso Milan
Dr du Mesnil
Hipop de loire
 
  • Like
Reactions: Hardy Eustace
Quevega said:
Sortudo
Leader Dallier
Sober
The Reverend
Laurets Destruval

Mighty Park
King Rasko Grey
Saint baco
He's on Fire


Dr Steinberg
Espresso Milan
Dr du Mesnil
Hipop de loire
Click to expand...
I think we'd all be very happy with this 🤞🤞🤞
 
  • Like
Reactions: Eggs and Bumble
Supreme - Rasko, Leader, Sober, The Reverend
Turners - Mighty Park, Sortudo, Laurets Destruval & Free Spirit
AB - Doctor Steinberg, Milan Expresso & Saint Baco
 
  • Like
Reactions: Eggs
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom