2026 Novice Hurdlers

[darlojim]

Sortudo could fit into the Supreme with Leader

I think Mighty Park & King Rasko Grey will go Turners

Dr Steinberg & Espresso Milan Albert Bartlett

My best effort at the bingo

Say that could be on the money myself

 

[Kauto’s star]

I just don’t get the mighty park talk. Yes he’s hosed up in a dog shit maiden, beating an obvious handicap plot job, but he’s so short it’s ridiculous. I guess similar can be said for el Cairos but atleast he (should’ve) won two. Couldn’t back either at the current prices unless one rocked up in atleast a grade 3. History says you need graded form (preferable win) to have a chance in The supreme and at 6s or less has to be a no bet. Both should be quadruple the price of talk the talk for me.

 

[SeanRock]

Say that could be on the money myself

All it takes is a small setback to one of them to put the cat amongst the pigeons mind you.

 

[SeanRock]

I just don’t get the mighty park talk. Yes he’s hosed up in a dog shit maiden, beating an obvious handicap plot job, but he’s so short it’s ridiculous. I guess similar can be said for el Cairos but atleast he (should’ve) won two. Couldn’t back either at the current prices unless one rocked up in atleast a grade 3. History says you need graded form (preferable win) to have a chance in The supreme and at 6s or less has to be a no bet. Both should be quadruple the price of talk the talk for me.

If Talk To Talk was being lined up for the Tuners I’d be all over him, given his gears, he’e be the obvious pace angle in the race.

Seems like they’re set on the minimum trip though which will be a tougher task for the horse on paper for me.

 

[Kauto’s star]

If Talk To Talk was being lined up for the Tuners I’d be all over him, given his gears, he’e be the obvious pace angle in the race.

Seems like they’re set on the minimum trip though which will be a tougher task for the horse on paper for me.

Oh I’m sure the turners would be at least equally as winnable, but my point is more around what mightyvoark has achieved (or even promised). Mullins or not, can’t be having the current price (and yes when he bolts up, it will a devastating start to the week )

 

[Prestbury]

Based on Willie's comments it would seem that Mighty Park goes directly to the Festival with just the one run as otherwise you would have expected him to say something along the lines of he runs next week and then we'll decide. I would have thought the longer race would be more forgiving for a horse lacking experience like he does.

 

[Kauto’s star]

Based on Willie's comments it would seem that Mighty Park goes directly to the Festival with just the one run as otherwise you would have expected him to say something along the lines of he runs next week and then we'll decide. I would have thought the longer race would be more forgiving for a horse lacking experience like he does.

One PTP and one maiden run, no thanks for me!!

 

[SeanRock]

Oh I’m sure the turners would be at least equally as winnable, but my point is more around what mightyvoark has achieved (or even promised). Mullins or not, can’t be having the current price (and yes when he bolts up, it will a devastating start to the week )

It’s fair to crab MP’s price based on what we’ve seen, I took 50/1 Tuners & 33/1 Supreme after his Christmas entry so I’m not too concerned.

IMO the best form on offer in the Novice Hurdles division this season is being overlooked due to recency bias & trainer snobbery.

The perennially informative Naas G1

 

[Prestbury]

Sortudo could fit into the Supreme with Leader

I think Mighty Park & King Rasko Grey will go Turners

Dr Steinberg & Espresso Milan Albert Bartlett

My best effort at the bingo

I think this is the most logical placing. However, the one wrinkle that I would add is that Townend would not be on Mighty Park and so if he has doubts about the quality of King Rasko Grey and concerns about Dr S being too free then he might persuade Willie to put Dr S in the Turners. I don't think Willie is a big fan of the AB and wouldn't need too much persuading to move Dr S to the shorter event.

 

[Quevega]

It’s fair to crab MP’s price based on what we’ve seen, I took 50/1 Tuners & 33/1 Supreme after his Christmas entry so I’m not too concerned.

IMO the best form on offer in the Novice Hurdles division this season is being overlooked due to recency bias & trainer snobbery.

The perennially informative Naas G1

Even Willie gave a heads up to that form today.

 

[darlojim]

Based on Willie's comments it would seem that Mighty Park goes directly to the Festival with just the one run as otherwise you would have expected him to say something along the lines of he runs next week and then we'll decide. I would have thought the longer race would be more forgiving for a horse lacking experience like he does.

That could well be a factor for sure

Supreme you'd be more likely caught out for lack of experience out the 2

 

[Quevega]

I think this is the most logical placing. However, the one wrinkle that I would add is that Townend would not be on Mighty Park and so if he has doubts about the quality of King Rasko Grey and concerns about Dr S being too free then he might persuade Willie to put Dr S in the Turners. I don't think Willie is a big fan of the AB and wouldn't need too much persuading to move Dr S to the shorter event.

That'll also depend on if he thinks Doctor is better than Mighty Park though.
Don;t know if he gets to ride him at home or not, but he'll be in the yard so will have a gauge.

 

[SeanRock]

I don't think Willie is a big fan of the AB and wouldn't need too much persuading to move Dr S to the shorter event.

Doctor Steinberg has double the experience Final Demand had last year going into Cheltenham this year, I think that’s usually key to his decision making.

 

[Kauto’s star]

It’s fair to crab MP’s price based on what we’ve seen, I took 50/1 Tuners & 33/1 Supreme after his Christmas entry so I’m not too concerned.

IMO the best form on offer in the Novice Hurdles division this season is being overlooked due to recency bias & trainer snobbery.

The perennially informative Naas G1

Oh at those odds, can’t knock it at all. And if I don’t win, I hope you do! More a pricing thing than anything else. I took a small play on elcairos at 33s also so not concerned about form at the price, but at 5s/6s just winds me up on all know form.

 

[Prestbury]

Doctor Steinberg has double the experience Final Demand had last year going into Cheltenham this year, I think that’s usually key to his decision making.

He also sent Gaillard Du Mesnil to the Turners after a similarly convincing victory in the Nathaniel Lacy and he had 8 career starts vs Dr Steinberg's 7 (albeit 2 hurdles starts vs 3). I think for those that he considers long term prospects he definitely thinks about the impact of the longer race at that stage of their careers.

 

[Ellisgittings]

He also sent Gaillard Du Mesnil to the Turners after a similarly convincing victory in the Nathaniel Lacy and he had 8 career starts vs Dr Steinberg's 7 (albeit 2 hurdles starts vs 3). I think for those that he considers long term prospects he definitely thinks about the impact of the longer race at that stage of their careers.

Ground a factor too. The more it rains, the more that keeness will play on their mind I expect.

 

[Prestbury]

You can lay Mighty Park this morning at 6.6 for the Turners and 15 for the Supreme. That is combined odds of a shade over 7/2. A once raced hurdler with a (albeit impressive) win in an egg and spoon maiden surely cant go off much shorter than that for a Festival novice on the day?

 

[EnvoiAlien]

I just don’t get the mighty park talk. Yes he’s hosed up in a dog shit maiden, beating an obvious handicap plot job, but he’s so short it’s ridiculous. I guess similar can be said for el Cairos but atleast he (should’ve) won two. Couldn’t back either at the current prices unless one rocked up in atleast a grade 3. History says you need graded form (preferable win) to have a chance in The supreme and at 6s or less has to be a no bet. Both should be quadruple the price of talk the talk for me.

Mighty Park is now fav on the exchanges for the Turners

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I know how much everyone loves an RPR on here so just some musings from me.

The Turners market.

Two horses have achieved a high RPR of 149 this season prior to the festival, No Drama This End & Doctor Steinberg. The ones in behind have some catching up to do.

In market order (ante post top price) they look like the following:

9/2 No Drama This End - Top RPR 149 - Run 3 times this season
11/2 Mighty Park - Top RPR 144 - 1 run
7/1 Skylight Hustle - Top RPR 146 - 3 runs
8/1 Ballyfad - Top RPR 144 - 2 runs (also 2 bumper runs this season)
10/1 Doctor Steinberg - Top RPR 149 - 3 runs
12/1 Act Of Innocence - Top RPR 139 - 3 runs
14/1 King Rasko Grey - Top RPR 143 - 2 runs
16/1 Sortudo - Top RPR 139 - 2 runs
16/1 I'll Sort That - Top RPR 144 - 4 runs

Off the back of looking at these I'd say the market is about right, with the exception of Doctor Steinberg, who is a 10/1 shot ante post, on the basis of him potentially going for the Bartlett. I'll Sort That is probably over priced too, but was on to his 4th run, so how much more improvement is there to come, and could also be Bartlett bound.

Really, if Mighty Park can find 6lbs improvement (and he should) I think he wins the Turners. By now, these horses who have had 3 runs really should be getting 150's+, I know it's only 1lb difference for a couple of them but you have to draw the line somewhere. I can accept a horse with 2 starts not quite getting there, but even the ones with 2 starts they are still a bit behind that.

There will be the argument, for the likes of Skylight Hustle, Ballyfad & King Rasko Grey that a step up in trip could bring about the improvement required, and that is absolutely true, it could, but even going back in recent seasons, Impaire Et Passe posted a 149 on his 2nd start over hurdles for Willie, and that was over 2m, Ballyburn a 157 in the race Ballyfad & King Rasko Grey achieved their highest RPR's this season, before stepping back up in trip for the Turners, even Sir Gerhard, he achieved a 157 on his second ever start over hurdles at the DRF over 2m.

Based on the above, I don't think it's looking a great race for quality, and will not take a serious amount of winning, IMO.

If I had to predict the 1-2-3 at this stage it would probably look like this:

1. Mighty Park (making the assumption he improves the required amount)
2. No Drama This End
3. King Rasko Grey

I've taken other factors in to this decision, that both Doctor Steinberg & I'll Sort That head to the Bartlett, and that King Rasko Grey will be the most likely to improve for a step up in trip, ahead of Ballyfad, who has run 4 times this season (twice in bumpers) and Skylight Hustle who has already had 3 runs and only managed a top RPR of 146 so far.

 

[Istabraq]

Really, if Mighty Park can find 6lbs improvement (and he should) I think he wins the Turners.

1. Mighty Park (making the assumption he improves the required amount)

I agree, 144 for debut is a hell of a mark, given normal improvement he would have to go very very close, but as will all things novice hurdle, Willie Mullins and JP it's unlikely we'll know which event he'll take in for another 3 weeks....