2026 Novice Chasers

[jrjr]

I agree, a race IEP would be fav for and also maybe the highest rated without FTF and Gaelic……..Surely though he would need a run before the festival wouldn't he?

Having backed him at big prices early season then I worry that maybe the racecourse gallop is just part of his prep towards Aintree

However whilst not knowing if Slevins rider contract is any different from Jacob’s previously, then if Townend could ride, it would sort any remaining doubt about whether FTF or/and Gaelic go for the Gold Cup

IMO both FTF both will go GC anyway as both have live chances and the owners will want a GC winner…..also Willie will want to add to his burgeoning accolades about having bred the winning jockey of the GC !

Can’t remember who, but someone said he was likely to run in the Red Mills Chase on Feb 14th. All fits together nicely, in my head at least

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

I agree, a race IEP would be fav for and also maybe the highest rated without FTF and Gaelic……..Surely though he would need a run before the festival wouldn't he?

Having backed him at big prices early season then I worry that maybe the racecourse gallop is just part of his prep towards Aintree

However whilst not knowing if Slevins rider contract is any different from Jacob’s previously, then if Townend could ride, it would sort any remaining doubt about whether FTF or/and Gaelic go for the Gold Cup

IMO both FTF both will go GC anyway as both have live chances and the owners will want a GC winner…..also Willie will want to add to his burgeoning accolades about having bred the winning jockey of the GC !

Not sure he’s higher rated than Jonbon.
Could be a fair shout though.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Salvator Mundi has to be a shot to nothing @ 50/1 NRNB for the Arkle, doesn't he?

If he doesn't win today he won't be on the boat, if he wins he probably halves in price and is on the boat.

You can back him E/W for 3 places, yet the race is probably going to have less than that looking at the current market.

Cheltenham form would have to be a worry, given he's turned up twice and not shown his best, however he could sneak in to a place.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Lulamba in the Game Spirit, as expected.

Saint Segal, Masty Chewy & Calico his main opponents, on ratings at least.

 

[Runragged]

I agree, a race IEP would be fav for and also maybe the highest rated without FTF and Gaelic……..Surely though he would need a run before the festival wouldn't he?

Having backed him at big prices early season then I worry that maybe the racecourse gallop is just part of his prep towards Aintree

However whilst not knowing if Slevins rider contract is any different from Jacob’s previously, then if Townend could ride, it would sort any remaining doubt about whether FTF or/and Gaelic go for the Gold Cup

IMO both FTF both will go GC anyway as both have live chances and the owners will want a GC winner…..also Willie will want to add to his burgeoning accolades about having bred the winning jockey of the GC !

If the owner isn't that fussed about having a Champion Hurdle winner, will he be that fussed over a Gold Cup?

 

[Wayward Lad]

Not sure he’s higher rated than Jonbon.
Could be a fair shout though.

Forgot about Jonbon as before the DRF I thought he was nailed on to run in the CC

However after Majborough’s performance and being same owner etc, then maybe he could go Ryanair……especially as the race is looking bare of high 160 horses if, as I believe, FTF and Gaelic go GC

 

[Wayward Lad]

If the owner isn't that fussed about having a Champion Hurdle winner, will he be that fussed over a Gold Cup?

Maybe, but the GC is the pinnacle of the festival!

However there is Vautour to support your point!

 

[Quevega]

Maybe, but the GC is the pinnacle of the festival!

However there is Vautour to support your point!

Not really.
Ricci has not won the Gold cup so that's a reasonable difference to the Champion hurdle comparison.
And they had Djakadam that year who Mullins and Walsh thought was going to win the Gold cup.
That was the bargaining tool.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

If the owner isn't that fussed about having a Champion Hurdle winner, will he be that fussed over a Gold Cup?

He did say before the race other day, that he would love a gold cup winner anywhere!!
I hope he gets the chance to fulfill that this year, he deserves that chance imo

 

[Wayward Lad]

Not really.
Ricci has not won the Gold cup so that's a reasonable difference to the Champion hurdle comparison.
And they had Djakadam that year who Mullins and Walsh thought was going to win the Gold cup.
That was the bargaining tool.

Forgot Djakadam was the same year as Vautour

Personally I think Gaelic is nailed on to go for the GC

Just about to back my view with a ‘borrowing money’ acca on the majority of odds on ‘where they going’ prices with PP/Hills…….but the one I can’t have is Lossie as I still think she goes CH

 

[Quevega]

Forgot Djakadam was the same year as Vautour

Personally I think Gaelic is nailed on to go for the GC

Just about to back my view with a ‘borrowing money’ acca on the majority of odds on ‘where they going’ prices with PP/Hills…….but the one I can’t have is Lossie as I still think she goes CH

I think Lossie still goes champion also.
In fact I could get Mullins to go for it in just five minutes.
"Are you going to allow a horse like Golden Ace to become a dual champion hurdler ? with all the horses at your disposal that's fucking embarassing"

And on a serious note, Willie does like a challenge and to show he can get horses back from disappointments.
He knows he has nothing else also. And that Lossie is better at Cheltenham.

Only thing that would change this is if Wodhooh is out.
However, that would still leave it open for Jade who would be clear Favourite also.

Supplementing Kopek would be a bad sign though.

I do have doubts though as a lot of reasonable judges are convinced she will go mares. But I'm not so sure they are thinking it all through as much to be fair.

 

[Wayward Lad]

I think Lossie still goes champion also.
In fact I could get Mullins to go for it in just five minutes.
"Are you going to allow a horse like Golden Ace to become a dual champion hurdler ? with all the horses at your disposal that's fucking embarassing"

And on a serious note, Willie does like a challenge and to show he can get horses back from disappointments.
He knows he has nothing else also. And that Lossie is better at Cheltenham.

Only thing that would change this is if Wodhooh is out.
However, that would still leave it open for Jade who would be clear Favourite also.

Supplementing Kopek would be a bad sign though.

I do have doubts though as a lot of reasonable judges are convinced she will go mares. But I'm not so sure they are thinking it all through as much to be fair.

Ironically I think she will have a harder race beating Wodhooh than TNL, BDA and Golden Ace !

 

[EnvoiAlien]

Depends how she's come out of the irish Champion, nothing was smooth & everything looked a struggle, she's never had issues with heavy/softer going before, TBF if she ran at Cheltenham like she did last week it wouldn't matter what race she was in, she wouldn't be troubling the judge.
Not long to find out where they go but I'd be confident that Ricci does what he always does, lets Willie do what he likes, which has served him well enough in the past.

 

[Quevega]

Depends how she's come out of the irish Champion, nothing was smooth & everything looked a struggle, she's never had issues with heavy/softer going before, TBF if she ran at Cheltenham like she did last week it wouldn't matter what race she was in, she wouldn't be troubling the judge.
Not long to find out where they go but I'd be confident that Ricci does what he always does, lets Willie do what he likes, which has served him well enough in the past.

Yeah, for sure, she'll need to be well no matter what race she goes for.

On a similar point and along the lines of others being wary of horses having a hard race.
Whilst some will possibly feel the effects for longer than others and not have pleasant memories as such. Which may or may not affect there next run.

I have always thought that the Irish have often had an advantage at Cheltenham due to the ground generally being worse over there more often than not, and I know Willie has very deep training gallops.

Which means horses can often come to Cheltenham on spring ground and think to themselves.
This is fucking brilliant, and bounce off it.

I know I would, it's like running along a beach then getting to a fucking path at the other side.
I've never done that by the way Lets say walking in my example.

 

[EnvoiAlien]

I think it also helps that the majority of novice races in ireland are ran at a truer pace, here there's a lot more races that develop into a sprint late on, Irish horses and more used to going a good clip then having to find towards the finish, toughens them up so physically & mentally,lots of ours only experience that in the springtime so it catches them out, all just my opinion of course.

 

[BigL]

Two arkle dark horses at Warwick in Saturday . Steel ally and mambonumberfive.
Both have looked impressive so far.
I would lean towards steel ally with Jax junior boosting the form last weekend

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Salvator Mundi has to be a shot to nothing @ 50/1 NRNB for the Arkle, doesn't he?

If he doesn't win today he won't be on the boat, if he wins he probably halves in price and is on the boat.

You can back him E/W for 3 places, yet the race is probably going to have less than that looking at the current market.

Cheltenham form would have to be a worry, given he's turned up twice and not shown his best, however he could sneak in to a place.

He's finally off the mark. Beating a load of plodders. Halved in price NRNB, but still some 33's AP available.

Form isn't worth a jot, as both the 2nd & 3rd have been readily beat all season.

 

[EnvoiAlien]

Looked like the 2nd & 3rd jockeys were just having a chat from 3 out

 

[TonyGalopin]

Another form boost for Kappa Jy Pyke...

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Two arkle dark horses at Warwick in Saturday . Steel ally and mambonumberfive.
Both have looked impressive so far.
I would lean towards steel ally with Jax junior boosting the form last weekend

I’m hoping both run well as I have them both backed for Arkle.
Mambo I fluked with a WTAF any race bet.
At the time I weren’t even thinking the Arkle would be the race!!

Steel ally I backed after his last race, was impressed with that run.