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2026 Novice Chasers

Following a similar topic yesterday, where there was a lot of talk about how bonkers oldschool outlaws price was for the last few weeks and after yesterday's race, there's another similar market imo, the brown advisory.

Final demand is still favourite. If anyone can give me a good reason for that which I've failed to think of, I'll be astounded. There's only one reason.... hype. Everyone says he's good, and thats it. Won a maiden hurdle, won a grade one beating wingmen, beaten by new lion and yellow clay, beat lovely hurling, beat wingmen, beat gold dancer, thrashed by kaid dauthie. Which of those results scream world beater? None of them. He apparently "wasn't right" at the drf. Had an off day at Xmas too apparently. Or he's just not that good, as his form indicates.

The horse who thrashed him at the drf, and who is actually improving with every run since going chasing, instead of getting worse, is a bigger price than him. But thats not even the strangest thing. The horse who beat kaid dauthie in their beginners chase,kitzbuhel, when the pair pulled over 10 lengths clear of the third, and who then put in a taking performance at kempton, is double figures and three times the price of kaid dauthie. You have to forgive an unseat at Sandown over two and a half, but his price is silly. He has already beaten the second fave, and on collateral form has the beating of the fave and western fold. He's beaten wendigo at kempton, and went off short fave to beat sixmilebridge when unseating, and yet he's a bigger price than all five of them. Big westerner is also second fave ffs after being beaten by Jimmy du seuil and then beating jade de grugy in a chase.

I dont think its quite as weird as oldschool outlaws price, but its not far off.
 
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I only have 2 dangers to Lulamba myself, neither are trained in ireland, he'll face one of them this weekend wherever he goes as long as they declare, so I've a bit of a twitchy saturday on the horizon.
 
Carnage at Taunton said:
I never said it was strong hurdle form.
I would give them a bit longer before writing them off though.
Poniros imo ran a promising race for the future the other day.
Anyway it’s all about fences for Lulamba and so far so good and from what I’ve seen so far a deserved fav for the Arkle.
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Yeah he definitely looks a chaser but when I go back through his form its not convincing. I know you can only beat whats in front of you and he didn't even really do that in the triumph.. For me he hasn't beaten enough over fences or hurdles to be that short for an arkle. Feels its reputation that has him so short
 
Kempton form is a poor indicator for Cheltenham. At Christmas, the going was quite fast and suited Kitzbuhel's style of racing. Left-handed and on easier ground, I'd be fairly hopeful that Wendigo could turn that form around. Add to that Wendigo's canter round Ayr compared to the mudslog at Leopardstown and 7/1 looks a fair ew price.
 
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FredFlintstone said:
Yeah he definitely looks a chaser but when I go back through his form its not convincing. I know you can only beat whats in front of you and he didn't even really do that in the triumph.. For me he hasn't beaten enough over fences or hurdles to be that short for an arkle. Feels its reputation that has him so short
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It’s not convincing but that’s often the case with Nov chasers, particularly I think with the British contenders.
Good thing for anyone that thinks he’s too short or don’t fancy him anyway, you may well find value on those you do fancy .
 
riccirich said:
Following a similar topic yesterday, where there was a lot of talk about how bonkers oldschool outlaws price was for the last few weeks and after yesterday's race, there's another similar market imo, the brown advisory.

Final demand is still favourite. If anyone can give me a good reason for that which I've failed to think of, I'll be astounded. There's only one reason.... hype. Everyone says he's good, and thats it. Won a maiden hurdle, won a grade one beating wingmen, beaten by new lion and yellow clay, beat lovely hurling, beat wingmen, beat gold dancer, thrashed by kaid dauthie. Which of those results scream world beater? None of them. He apparently "wasn't right" at the drf. Had an off day at Xmas too apparently. Or he's just not that good, as his form indicates.

The horse who thrashed him at the drf, and who is actually improving with every run since going chasing, instead of getting worse, is a bigger price than him. But thats not even the strangest thing. The horse who beat kaid dauthie in their beginners chase,kitzbuhel, when the pair pulled over 10 lengths clear of the third, and who then put in a taking performance at kempton, is double figures and three times the price of kaid dauthie. You have to forgive an unseat at Sandown over two and a half, but his price is silly. He has already beaten the second fave, and on collateral form has the beating of the fave and western fold. He's beaten wendigo at kempton, and went off short fave to beat sixmilebridge when unseating, and yet he's a bigger price than all five of them. Big westerner is also second fave ffs after being beaten by Jimmy du seuil and then beating jade de grugy in a chase.

I dont think its quite as weird as oldschool outlaws price, but its not far off.
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6 of his 7 runs since switching from France have been right handed. He disappointed on his only run left handed when favourite at Aintree. His three chase runs have been right handed and I certainly think he is better going that way round looking at his runs.
 
archie said:
Kempton form is a poor indicator for Cheltenham. At Christmas, the going was quite fast and suited Kitzbuhel's style of racing. Left-handed and on easier ground, I'd be fairly hopeful that Wendigo could turn that form around. Add to that Wendigo's canter round Ayr compared to the mudslog at Leopardstown and 7/1 looks a fair ew price.
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Yeah, I’ve been a big Kitz fan for the BANC, but am now going off him a tad, and looking at him now I’m really unsure the BANC will suit him.
I’m keeping the bet at the moment but i do keep looking at my cash out option which does yield a profit.
Agree about Wendigo, to me he looks the perfect BANC type.
Kaid does too imo.
 
riccirich said:
Following a similar topic yesterday, where there was a lot of talk about how bonkers oldschool outlaws price was for the last few weeks and after yesterday's race, there's another similar market imo, the brown advisory.

Final demand is still favourite. If anyone can give me a good reason for that which I've failed to think of, I'll be astounded. There's only one reason.... hype. Everyone says he's good, and thats it. Won a maiden hurdle, won a grade one beating wingmen, beaten by new lion and yellow clay, beat lovely hurling, beat wingmen, beat gold dancer, thrashed by kaid dauthie. Which of those results scream world beater? None of them. He apparently "wasn't right" at the drf. Had an off day at Xmas too apparently. Or he's just not that good, as his form indicates.

The horse who thrashed him at the drf, and who is actually improving with every run since going chasing, instead of getting worse, is a bigger price than him. But thats not even the strangest thing. The horse who beat kaid dauthie in their beginners chase,kitzbuhel, when the pair pulled over 10 lengths clear of the third, and who then put in a taking performance at kempton, is double figures and three times the price of kaid dauthie. You have to forgive an unseat at Sandown over two and a half, but his price is silly. He has already beaten the second fave, and on collateral form has the beating of the fave and western fold. He's beaten wendigo at kempton, and went off short fave to beat sixmilebridge when unseating, and yet he's a bigger price than all five of them. Big westerner is also second fave ffs after being beaten by Jimmy du seuil and then beating jade de grugy in a chase.

I dont think its quite as weird as oldschool outlaws price, but its not far off.
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FD is likely still that short due to the bookies having high liabilities on him and not wanting to push him out to 8-10s where he probably should be after that horror show
 
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English horses have a very good record in the BANC. 11 wins over Ireland's 9 in the last 20 runnings which bode well for the likes of Wendigo and Sixmilebridge
 
Runragged said:
6 of his 7 runs since switching from France have been right handed. He disappointed on his only run left handed when favourite at Aintree. His three chase runs have been right handed and I certainly think he is better going that way round looking at his runs.
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Would be a simplistic view imo to say that his one below par run was due to it being left handed. It was also his first go at three miles and he was keen the whole way round. I'd say that had more to do with him weakening out of it late on than it being a left handed track imo. His jumping was very slightly to the right but nothing too worrying I dont think.

And even in that defeat, he still ran to a mark in the mid to high 140s probably, while being basically a novice in terms of age and experience. Which was more than most or all of last years staying novices were running to.
 
Oscars Brother is an interesting one and my favourite to win the Ten up on Sunday if declared.
No idea if they'll travel over for the BANC but would be an interesting runner for sure.

His form is all about staying and the horses he's finished in front of and just behind have nearly all improved.
The BANC can be a mixed bag, you can get some renewals that are at such a good clip the true stayers come to the fore, and you can get others where they go slower or a classy horse judges the fractions bang on and simply does them for class.

The 20-1 NRNB looks value, in respect of he's probably not coming over unless he wins Sunday.
I'm already on from weeks back on exchange.
 
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Romeo Coolio weak enough on the exchanges for the Arkle, with money coming for the BANC!

I'm kinda in agreeance with Johnny Dineen, that he'll probably not be good enough for either, in the end.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Romeo Coolio weak enough on the exchanges for the Arkle, with money coming for the BANC!

I'm kinda in agreeance with Johnny Dineen, that he'll probably not be good enough for either, in the end.
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The slower pace on better ground will suit him imo, is he a full on 3 miler, I think he's a little bit classier than those grinding,staying types, much as I like him I'm more hoping this season doesn't bottom him for next season, be his 5th start at the festival, then I expect they'll go Punchestown, or maybe Aintree, 6 starts 5 in Grade 1 company for a novice is a lot of racing, the education will be great for next season, but I'd say 4 starts is enough of an education already.
 
EnvoiAlien said:
The slower pace on better ground will suit him imo, is he a full on 3 miler, I think he's a little bit classier than those grinding,staying types, much as I like him I'm more hoping this season doesn't bottom him for next season, be his 5th start at the festival, then I expect they'll go Punchestown, or maybe Aintree, 6 starts 5 in Grade 1 company for a novice is a lot of racing, the education will be great for next season, but I'd say 4 starts is enough of an education already.
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I think he might place, before heading to the Ryanair the following season.
 
riccirich said:
Would be a simplistic view imo to say that his one below par run was due to it being left handed. It was also his first go at three miles and he was keen the whole way round. I'd say that had more to do with him weakening out of it late on than it being a left handed track imo. His jumping was very slightly to the right but nothing too worrying I dont think.

And even in that defeat, he still ran to a mark in the mid to high 140s probably, while being basically a novice in terms of age and experience. Which was more than most or all of last years staying novices were running to.
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Yes it is simplistic as we don't have much more to go on. He was clearly fancied for the race though if starting favourite. Has it been reported he has come out of the Sandown race alright? He starts jumping more right handed at and after the Pond Fence and was markedly that way when unseating. Wonder if something was niggling him as he was relatively straight prior to the Pond Fence.
 
Runragged said:
Yes it is simplistic as we don't have much more to go on. He was clearly fancied for the race though if starting favourite. Has it been reported he has come out of the Sandown race alright? He starts jumping more right handed at and after the Pond Fence and was markedly that way when unseating. Wonder if something was niggling him as he was relatively straight prior to the Pond Fence.
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Yeah but you'd just be choosing to ignore that he didnt settle at his first go at a longer trip, and that its just as likely that was the reason he was well beat as it having anything to do with being left handed. Given that his jumping was fine and he went well to a point, I'd say its more likely that being too keen was the main factor in the defeat imo.

Seemed to gallop on fine after the unseat so I'd assume he's okay but no confirmation publicly that I've seen.
 
riccirich said:
Yeah but you'd just be choosing to ignore that he didnt settle at his first go at a longer trip, and that its just as likely that was the reason he was well beat as it having anything to do with being left handed. Given that his jumping was fine and he went well to a point, I'd say its more likely that being too keen was the main factor in the defeat imo.

Seemed to gallop on fine after the unseat so I'd assume he's okay but no confirmation publicly that I've seen.
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Yes, it was a likely contribution to his run also. Re-watching that Aintree race, he seemed to be straighter when he had horses on his outside. When there was nothing there he was definitely heading right. That's not to say he can't win left handed but for me he joins Il Etait Temps and more so Found A Fifty in that they will produce their best when going right handed until they prove me otherwise.
 

Dublin Racing Festival 2026 Preview & Trials Day Analysis | Road To Cheltenham | Racing TV​


Was just going back through this on YT, as I didn't watch it all the other week, Kopek De Bordes...they mention his leg he had the operation on got infected which is why he missed the DRF, did no one else hear this as I hadn't seen it mentioned here, or anywhere else, surprised it wasn't noted by anyone given his popularity & position in the AP markets.

44.51 is when they start talking about him if anyone wants to hear exactly what is said.
 
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